A week later, shown coming out of Egypt information, it is already possible to imagine the alignment of forces in this large-scale game in the middle East. To summarize what happened, whose interests appear in an Egyptian map which scenarios are possible.
First, we should make a list of facts, the authenticity of which we are most sure.
1. In Egypt, the famine, the dimensions of which exceed all known cases of starvation in the region over the last hundred years.
2. For the United States and Israel, the regime change in Egypt is undesirable because most likely the new government will not be as loyal, and perhaps open opposition to these two countries (Israel might fall into almost complete isolation).
3. Monitor all the actions and rhetoric of the White House, we can confidently say that the events were unexpected (and prepared recipes of action they do not).
4. The army's actions clearly show that they occupy a neutral, and in many cases openly protect demonstrators from the police.
Moreover, yesterday issued an appeal of the generals of the army, which stressed that the army will be solely to maintain law and order in the throes of revolution and cities (to fight bandits and marauders), but "in no case will not turn the weapons against the proud nation of Egypt".
5. It's safe to say that the arrival of ElBaradei in Egypt is an attempt by the U.S. to supply its creature is Mubarak if the protests go too far. But Baradei is old, weak, did not enjoy particular support from the population, and is unlikely to solve economic problems, which led to the current events. In addition, Baradei has repeatedly entered into conflicts with the U.S. state Department, and menopause. But the best candidate in the U.S. just yet.
In this case, the interests of other countries (and organisations) that are able in varying degrees to influence the processes in Egypt, are as follows:
1. The U.S. is interested in maintaining the regime of Mubarak, in the worst case – replacing it on Baradei.
2. Israel is interested in preserving the dictatorship of Mubarak.
3. The government of Saudi Arabia supports Mubarak (or any other Pro-American leader).
4. Iran is interested in the overthrow of Mubarak (and may use the influence of the Egyptian part of the Shia Ummah).
5. Palestine is interested in the overthrow of Mubarak.
6. Country antiisraelism Alliance (Syria, Lebanon, Palestine) interested in the overthrow of Mubarak.
7. Radical Islamic organizations such as HAMAS, Hezbollah and the "Muslim brotherhood" is interested in overthrowing Mubarak.
8. In the government of the Russian Federation there are at least two groups with opposite aspirations: one supports Iran (and for the overthrow of Mubarak), the second seeks to please the US. Therefore, the position of Moscow is still not clearly expressed.
I was touched by the attitude of some "Pasarela" and commentators who write nonsense and do not bother her somehow minimally to argue. For example, I before writing this and the previous articles about Egypt, learned about the history of Egypt since 1949, with a bunch of macroeconomic indicators, with dozens (no exaggeration) of expert assessments, a few days in the background track "al Jazeera," and more.
And if I don't overwhelm your article with additional facts (which would have made them indigestible), it does not mean that I have none. Buts you want, but based on factual material and not the SERVICE.
The attempts of some authors to find "American ears" in the events in Egypt is ridiculous and absurd. Causes of events in simple, clear and commonplace poverty, unemployment of a considerable part of the population, a high degree of corruption.
While drought and fires in Russia and crop failures in some other countries caused an increase in food prices by 70%. In combination with the above factors and given social explosion.
And although religious and geopolitical factors in the events are also present, but they are secondary and background, and the main motive is purely social.
After all, at quite high rates of GDP of Egypt more than 40% of the population is starving. Not because of lack of resources, but solely because the lion's share of the profits of the state were deposited in the pockets of Mubarak and his inner circle. You can not endlessly to fatten, when people are starving (this message is actual and for Ukraine!).
In addition, you consider normal that the country is 29 years old lives in declared a state of war without actual warfare? Reactionary dictatorships are overthrown periodically and without external interference.
But we on possible development scenarios. They, as always, several.
1. The problem will zabaltyvaet. The excitement subsides, Mubarak promised reforms, will replace several Ministers and thus pacify the situation. Extremely unlikely, including that from the insurgents, there is no single authoritative focal point with which to agree. And even if that failed – the problems it will solve (if Mubarak had not implemented reforms for 30 years, then why can he do it now?). Even if the protesters will go home, very soon empty stomachs again drive them on the street, only more evil and radical.
2. Mubarak suppress the rebels by force. Also unlikely, given the stance of the army to this day. But in this case, in the country and dramatically increase the intensity of the situation, including not only due to the activation of radical Islamist groups, but also because of a mere growth of criminal (flag) crime. In this case as armed protests and revolts in the army and terrorist acts and political assassinations, and the region could slip into war "all against all".
3. The power goes to ElBaradei. Not too likely scenario, but can be intermediate. This result should satisfy no one, because he will try to take a moderately Pro-American position, but with her own conditions. And if Washington can make a good mine at bad game and for the time being satisfied with that, reliquary and the Islamists will be extremely dissatisfied. And it is unlikely the Board ElBaradei will last long enough to address the causes of instability.
4. The power goes to the representatives of radical Islamic organizations such as "Muslim Brothers". Unlikely, because all protests are held almost exclusively under social slogans and demands among political not religious.
5. Military under the pretext of protecting the population from dictatorship overthrew Mubarak and take power into their own hands. In connection with several hundreds of victims of police that are already there, it would be a completely legitimate method of regime change. Moreover, the tradition of military coups in Egypt are still fresh. It thus came to power and Nasser, and Sadat. On the other hand, if they wanted to do already had such an opportunity. But they still remain neutral, although it is unknown how they will act, if the event will take an extreme case scenario.
6. External intervention by the US (NATO etc), to establish "a friendly regime". It is very unlikely. Obama does not know how to banish Afghanistan and Iraq, which is costing US in fabulous sums, and accompanied by persistent losses. To get involved in another "victorious war" for them now would be tantamount to the fall of the Roman Empire – and already received a lot of "taken turns in pyrrian victory".
7. External intervention on the part of Russia (especially for some particularly conspiracy of Russophobes). It will not be because landing the bears can not tolerate the heat and PCA too quickly overheat.
8. Kyrgyz variant. That is, the overthrow of Mubarak spontaneous crowd without a clear center of influence. And the subsequent formation of the interim administration, which will create conditions for elections. Although certainly among the protesters has already committed group who are willing to take responsibility for coordination of the process, but they simply do not want to attract unwanted attention and become possible targets for attacks of intelligence (and rightly so).
9. Chaos and slipping into a war of "all against all". This will not happen, because in such situation the army will just take the power into their own hands (it's not the Ukrainian army – there's plenty of strong and courageous generals).
In any scenario, those who want to reassure Egypt, will have to press the interests of the richest layers to raise funds and feed the people. Otherwise, in some bayonets he will not stay long, and the situation will repeat itself, only with much more devastating consequences.
Tags: geopolitics , Africa , Egypt