Events in the Arab world at the beginning of 2011 covered more than a dozen countries of North Africa and the Middle East, has led many pundits to question the validity of assumptions made previously on the subject of the analysis of dynamics and trends of development of the situation in various regions of the world. The inability of the "powers that be" to agree on ways out of the protracted global financial crisis is forcing accumulated in their relationship tensions to go through a series of conflicts.
As in the days of the Cold war, the areas of conflicts of interest, poles of power begins to "spark" local and regional conflicts. Only this time has changed the area of such conflicts today is not so much the points, allowing to implement a plan for global domination as the areas of concentration of minerals, primarily oil and gas. These are ending in the near future, resources, now actively encourage the escalation of conflicts in various parts of the world.
As it often happens, in the case of the unrest in the Arab world, again all happened, supposedly, unexpectedly. However, this is not unexpected . "velvet" and "color" revolutions of recent decades have shown the General trend of development of techniques and methods of conducting information-psychological war.
For professionals also important the fact that the revolution showed the effectiveness of the techniques and methods of work with the crowd, the ability to create and implement necessary behavior. This marked the transition to a fundamentally new technologies of struggle for the achievement and retention of its interests in any region of the world without the active use of military force.
Another important consequence of the last of the revolutions was the fact that the "Arab revolution" was the first information war, in which the information-psychological and information-technical components of the confrontation actually merged into a single technology formation and management of public opinion. Today the participants of the virtual social networks encourage the unity of the living . this is really a fundamentally new stage in the development of information warfare. In the press mentioned that the U.S. and Israel create a special unit "battle of bloggers". So. In particular. In the US air force base "MacDill" it is planned to create a coordination center for a few dozen social networks in which will be actively used virtual avatars. Communication is supposed to on Pushtu, Farsi, Arabic, but in any case . not in English!
Summarizing the above, we can make an intermediate conclusion that, giving the forecast of development of situation in the world, it makes sense to assume that if it is oil or gas-bearing area which is not under the direct control and management of one of the modern geopolitical power centers (EU, USA, China, Russia), he is likely to become the point of application of proven technology of the "Arab revolution".
The script of such a revolution, as the analysis of events in Egypt, Tunisia and some other countries, promotion is based on the following scenario elements: "the existence of oppressed people", "mass propaganda of the cult of personality", "low life in the country", "the harassment of opposition" and, of course, is "the absence of democratic freedoms". Issued on these topics enable you to generate a scenario of a "people's war", which was successfully implemented in a number of countries, and which is so corny stumbled on Libya.
With regard to the formation of the necessary mechanism for the implementation of this scenario, an important place is occupied by non-governmental organizations, international organizations, foundations, etc. such patterns, typically used as a "generation" network capable of delivering the required "truth" to the widest possible audience. Today this group of traditional "conductors" have been added and the virtual community . their efficacy has been proven hundredfold in the "Arab revolutions". They do not require the work to build a "customer base", which is necessary for traditional NGOs, they do not need to build a complex scheme of financing of their own work so as not to fall under the supervision of the relevant structures. Moreover, to control them is very difficult, especially when this help neighboring countries. But active supporters of such networks is the most passionary part of society . youth. It combines social media, subcultures, fan movement, etc. And it is the youth of today are capable of radical changes in society, since in effect the current time, almost everywhere in the world (regardless of the prosperity and faith) the young people are left without a clear guide to their usefulness to society. This feeling of lack of demand and the desire to change something and makes it malleable material in the hands of sophisticated specialists in fragile souls.
But back to our attempt to predict the possible escalation of the situation in the world, based on the above scenario developments. The analysis shows that the most desirable region (after the Persian Gulf and North Africa with their significant reserves of hydrocarbons) is the Caspian sea region and Central Asia in General. Indeed, the development of the situation in the world has led to the fact that the last decade the countries of the region develop as if by themselves. Their remoteness from major geopolitical centers of power, difficult climatic and geographical conditions left them in relative safety from the aspirations of the major global players. Simply it was hard to deliver their resources to world markets. In addition, Russia . one of the geopolitical centers of power, enough for many years actively defending its influence in the region, it is now gradually disappearing, leaving a vacuum of influence. But the situation is changing and she is changing not for the better for the countries of the region. In conditions when traditional sources of raw materials or depleted, or are under the strict control of one or several geopolitical centers, the need for economic growth and development makes other centers of power to seek possible access to resources irrespective of their value.
Such a situation is possible today in Central Asia. China, cut off from the main energy providers in Africa, no doubt concentrate his gaze on the resources of the Caspian sea and Central Asia, especially in the absence of a clearly defined Russian interests. But the U.S. is quite aware that allowing China to resources in the region impossible. For this reason, they will take all possible measures to prevent it, and, I must say that there is a very significant likelihood that they will succeed. The analysis shows that the United States has long and actively develop the network of non-governmental organizations in these regions, creating the necessary base for the realisation by one of "velvet" scenarios. Particularly active in this direction operates the American development Agency (USAID).
A series of revolutions that have overtaken several countries in the region (e.g. Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan) . no more than a rehearsal . just as it was in North Africa, where the main objective was initially Libya, but it all started in Tunisia and Egypt. The main goal in this solitaire is undoubtedly Turkmenistan . this wealth of resources not only in the region but in the world. It is important to note that the tense situation common to most countries in the region, as would have avoided this "oasis of stability" is really guarded from premature concern. However, as often happens, development situation and came here.
Today Turkmenistan . an ideal platform for the implementation of the scenario of "Arab revolutions": the country has an autocratic regime, low living standards, lack of opposition and democracy . in General "the full bouquet". In addition, the country is a strong supporter of the development of export relations with China . that is extremely dangerous to herself (this is unwise from the point of view of the US) and for the United States. It is important to note that here, as in North Africa, the U.S. is not working alone. If in Africa they actively help France and Israel in Turkmenistan begins to actively work with Turkey (and, interestingly, the same Israel). The Turkish emissaries are actively engaged in the Turkmen youth, developing a number of religious projects, including the network of religious schools, University, high school, etc.
But except for Turkey and Israel in the project, most likely, will be attended by immediate neighbours Turkmenistan - they are also interested in gaining access to its riches, so easily will give your site not only for the actions of diversionary groups and groups for special purposes, but also for aviation bases in case it comes to "forced democracy". However, as the analysis of recent developments, such development of the situation, most likely, will not happen . from more than a dozen countries, only Libya managed to render worthy repulse to the aggressors. This was achieved solely through years of work on the formation of ideological and social base of the Libyan Jamahiriya. Unfortunately, practice shows that, generally, Asian regimes are not capable of such perception of the situation. These modes can only attempt to drown in blood this "Arab revolution", but you need to have at least a substantial part of security forces, ready to support the ruling elite, but they want to approach the feeder and eat from it . the past in the region of the revolution and the riots showed this variant of the situation development.
So to predict in that case, simply and forecast, in our opinion is rather reasonable and, most importantly, to wait until its actual implementation is very long. So we'll check it.
Tags: security , threat , Africa