Fomin A.N., Kryukova S.A., Makarenko G.A. "About inflation in Russia"
Material posted: -Publication date: 23-06-2011

When you start to talk about the causes of high inflation in our country, we usually first result in a large list of all the factors contributing to its occurrence. Then usually focus on a single factor – the high degree of monopolization of the Russian economy and high rates of natural (infrastructure) monopolies. An interested reader can easily find these materials online, for example, in sources1,2.

Everything seems to be scientifically and politically correct. At least this version is for the students to answer the exams, where they don't speak for "seditious" things for today's official economic science and not put teachers in an awkward position.

But in essence, such approaches have little to explain. For example, if most of these factors are peculiar to different countries, why there is high inflation in Russia and in the USA and EU countries it is significantly lower?

We mentioned the explanation of inflation does not share. So now we will state their point of view. Just say that is almost certainly to some it may seem controversial, especially to economists and analysts. So, welcome – to Express their opinions, just constructively, without arguing and high self-esteem.

Proactively answer rolls off my tongue question: why it seems to have calmed down (and boring) topic of inflation rises once again? What makes to go back to this beaten subject, which, despite all the explanations, conferences, forums and roundtables continues to be a vital and little understood by the majority of inhabitants of the country, but from the constructive discussions which the government is scared as hell of incense?

Answer. First, ended first decade of the new century. Good opportunity to assess 10-year outcomes of various numerous reforms, especially in the first half of 2011 appeared statistical data for 2010

Secondly, again began rising oil prices on the world market. And in the country of "sovereign democracy" (where actually there is none) that the growth of export prices for oil and gas automatically leads to inflation and, in particular, a sharp increase in domestic prices of petroleum products. For Russia, rising oil prices and increasing inflation are two sides of the same coin, two components in one bottle. Although intuitively it seems that should be the opposite. At least it's sincerely believe the majority of Russian citizens.

So it's time to clarify the situation.

In most explanations for high inflation in Russia is called its fundamental cause – an outflow of financial capital from the country. As will be shown below, this factor contributes to the emergence of high tariffs and even contributes to the emergence of monopolies.

And, if all was clear from the beginning, refers to the total outflow of private capital through legal and illegal channels, as well as the transfer by the Bank of Russia funds in international currency reserves. Essentially, the formation of foreign exchange reserves is also an outflow of financial capital on a much higher scale. In fact, it is the realization state of the installation on the investment of the economies of the US, the EU and the UK. By the way, since 2006 the funds of the Stabilization Fund (from 1 February 2008, it is divided into Reserve Fund and national welfare Fund), also denominated securities USA, the EU and the UK.

To begin, consider the official data, allowing to judge about the level of inflation over the past 10 years.

 

A. N. Fomin, S. A. Kryukov, A. G. Makarenko

Tags: Russia