The future of the international system. A world without war or war without peace?
Material posted: Publication date: 06-08-2012

Discussion about war and peace has no end. Being an object of creation, the human conscience (obedience to the image) is between the extremes of peace or war, heaven or hell, good or evil, nonviolence or violence, order or chaos. This duality supports our optimism, hope for better luck and, of course, faith in the meaning of life.

And in order to ensure a better life in store for us, we tend to look to the future, to understand the basic vectors of development of society and the state, their place in this dynamic process. However, despite the change of scenery that took place in the era of the Ancient world, middle Ages, modern and contemporary, one thing remains constant – the aggressive nature of man, his desire for power, conquest, which is achieved mainly through violence.

No wonder the Greek historian Thucydides connected the Peloponnesian war, the defeat of Athens, the struggle which brought to exhaustion, while struggling with the eternal human passions. About this angrily said and thinkers of the scale G. Lebon, Z. Freud and K. Jung. They all declare with one voice: our behavior is regulated by the collective unconscious, if you will - the call of blood. And only the most educated individuals may have to overcome unconscious instincts and to create favorable conditions for harmony among peoples. As for the people, their development is spontaneous, often chaotic in nature, which transforms the state of universal peace in a utopia or a short truce.

A catalyst for clashes between peoples are ethnic and racial contradictions, which are based on the inexorable desire of any ethnic group (i.e. live samoorganizatsiya system) for self-preservation. The bulk of the emotional energy that feeds the flames of armed clashes, comes from the deep vaults of the psyche – where reigns the ethnic component of social and individual characters. The powers that be often seek to satisfy their private economic interests due to the excitation of deep dedication ethnic peoples, through the management of a kind of ethnic aggression, which in varying degrees is inherent in all insufficiently educated and quite successful in economic and emotional sense to people [1, p. 4].

In historical terms, war is an instrument of ordering international relations, creating a hierarchy of major political forces. This thesis is applicable to different kinds of associations, whether a tribal Union, a state or a supranational structure. A similar sense is investing in their creativity and the English philosopher T. Hobbes. In "the Leviathan" (1651), he treats the state as a result of a contract between people, put an end to the natural state of "war of all against all", as if not noticing that from now on war will occur on a larger scale (only between countries).

What awaits us in the twenty-first century? Will we be able to overcome the bitter experience of past generations? Let's try to answer these questions through the analysis of historical formations, they will help us to understand the present and anticipate the future model of social systems.

1. Feudalism, capitalism and turbo-capitalism

In order to facilitate our research, under state we mean a political superstructure that reflects the shape and the level of socio-economic relations in society. The most important prerequisite for its occurrence (transition form tribal Alliance) is the preservation and growth of wealth, human desire for power, the thirst for recognition that forced our ancestors to form a slave system, allowing the primary accumulation and to create a repressive apparatus to protect it.

International relationships are constantly fluctuating between chaos and order. With incredible speed one is replaced by another, as is often the case thanks to our ingenuity and even Leni: new technologies design previously unknown form of interaction in society. So, with the advent in the manufacturing process of the windmill begins the process of dispersion of power, known to us from school as feudalism. Despite the fact that the most ancient mills were common in Babylon, as evidenced by the code of king Hammurabi (about 1750 BC), in Europe (Flanders, South Eastern England and Normandy), they became known only with 1180 g. of the City, concentrating people and goods and gradually dismantle the slave education of the Imperial type, narrowing down the space of human thought to ethnic boundaries (the reformation of Luther is an example). Spiritual power of the Pope is subjected to obstruction, which the Holy see is responsible the establishment in 1540, the Jesuits. No wonder the Renaissance will be based on the ideas of anthropocentrism, preparing the ideological ground for the bourgeois revolutions.

During the feudal period, technological progress was extremely slow, because the classical feudalism is subsistence farming, and if there is no incentive for technological progress. The farmer need not produce more than required for themselves and for the Lord, and in the craft that progress had been banned. When capitalism appears strong stimulus of technological progress – competition. If a capitalist introduces new machinery, it receives additional revenue; technical reconstruction of one enterprise becomes mandatory and for others: who is lagging behind in technological development, the bankrupt [2, p. 119]. The competition that gave birth to the market, will change human relations beyond recognition. From now on, the individual becomes only a part of the "great triad" – labour, land and capital, which were previously subordinated to religious and ethnic traditions.

A symbol of capitalism becomes the universal steam engine invented by Englishman J. Watt in 1774-1784, that scientific discovery originates from the industrial model of production, in which power over political space is concentrated in the hands of national governments. This invention stimulates the development of world industry and transport, concentrating the wealth of the planet in the hands of a narrow circle of people. the Process of accumulation and monopolization of international trade provokes large-scale clashes between Nations: in the nineteenth century Old world plunges into a series of inter-state wars launched by the French revolution and its conductor - the Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte; and in XX – humanity will self-destruct in two world wars.

As before, the only guarantee against the total extermination of "balance of power" position in which power is evenly distributed between the major players; each of them is aware that the violation of the existing balance of guaranteed opposition from the other members of the "international concert" (in the form of hostile coalitions).

An example of neglect of the principles of political balance is the First world war where the Kaiser's Germany will challenge the sea power of Britain. Although historically this combination of circumstances is hardly unique: the conflict of 1914-1918 is quite comparable in nature with the Peloponnesian war (431-404 BC), which Sparta (the prototype Germany) and Athens (the prototype of England) mutually constrained on the background of Persia (the type of USA). The difference of two wars is to scale, but the essence is the same: by the end of the war on mainland Greece, Persia increases its political influence; and in the ruins of postwar Europe Britain and Germany reinforce dependence on the banking capital of America.

Refer to the next phase of global socio-economic development.

In the last quarter of the XX century the economic system of the West, under the influence of satellite communication and the Internet is entering a stage of turbo-capitalism,abolishing national borders, putting them in dependence on the engine of world technological development of America. The symbol of a new era is the Internet that helped create the economic infrastructure with predominance of intangible assets such as services and technologies that have reduced the role of tangible assets that are concentrated in the industrial sector. Henceforth, leadership and competitiveness are ensured only with the help of knowledge of new information technologies, which in contact with human ambition, are the basis of cyber weapons used in the so-called "Arab spring" in the middle East and North Africa.

Creating a "new economy", the turbo-capitalism replaces gosudarstvennim on setecientas, engaging people in a continuous dialogue that, despite the increased number of ethnic conflicts, gradually standardizes ideological model of Nations, replacing centuries-old traditions of a universal set of stereotypes. In a broad sense, the instinct of territoriality inherent in the era of gosudarstvennim gradually abolished under the blows of urbanization and Informatization, giving way to the limitless expanses of the global network. All these factors only confirm the plans of the ruling elites of America and Europe to create a single civilization, in which national sovereignty would be delegated to a supranational unification of the UN. Theorists of globalism, inspired by wilsonianism, are convinced that only transnational sovereignty would avoid a major war, thereby creating the conditions for universal peace and harmony.

This positive thesis is accompanied by all integration projects implemented by the Anglo-American elite at the turn of XX and XXI century, among which stands out the European Union, NAFTA (with plans of becoming the North American Union)** and the South American Union. Nation States, as members of these associations, realize that only enhanced the experience (in various industries) between Nations will allow them to survive in today's competitive environment, requiring the consolidation of tangible and intangible potentials.

When turbo-capitalism mono-ethnic state finally fading, giving way to multiethnic countries, not to mention numerous international alliances (TNC and TNB) and the casual mixing of races and Nations (by interethnic and interracial marriages) [1, p. 3]. Listed supranational blocks signify an impending change in international relations, in which economic, political and ideological institutions are defined in terms of a nation-state, become obsolete, and new supranational Union are under accelerated construction.

The expanses of Northern Eurasia were no exception from the rules: Moscow, after long wanderings in search of identity, decided to create their own Imperial formation – the Eurasian Union, which (under favorable external conditions) will have a growing influence at the same time on two engines of the global economy – Brussels and Beijing.

2. On the threshold of the Third world: will Russia save humanity?

Globalization, economic interdependence generated by existing actors, leaves little hope to conclude a number of economic, political and cultural transactions among Nations will force them to negotiate rather than destroy each other. However, everyday realities give only an alarm.

Like a hundred years ago, sustainable development of Russia and the international system depends on the geopolitical situation in the middle East, more precisely from the political situation in Syria and Iran. Paradoxically, the "Balkanization" of these countries will inevitably lead to deformation of the core of the world system, America, the last Bastion of which is the hegemony of the dollar, supported by the military dominance of the Pentagon in oil and gas basin of the Persian Gulf***.

In addition to political-economic factors, Iran and Syria - a living monument to the state and culture of the Persians and the Arabs, who to this day give these people confidence and pride. On the territory of the Iranians, the ancient state known to the present generations of historians – Elam (2700 - 539 BC); and on the territory of the Arabs of Damascus, one of the great cultural and political capitals of the Arab Caliphate. Thus, the collapse of the current territories of Iran and Syria (which is the result of the First world) will turn into a dangerous precedent that could potentially crush all other countries at GME ethno-religious commune. Post-Saddam Iraq is a clear example of this.

It is not necessary to possess the gift of foresight, to realize large-scale conflict in this area will disturb the planetary balance of power between the elites of America and Europe established after the Second world; in the first place, will obliterate the so-called "Quincy agreement" - us-Saudi agreement on oil trade reached 14 February 1945, during the meeting of President Roosevelt with the king of Saudi Arabia A. Aziz II on Board the cruiser "Quincy", who provided the American Corporation "Aramco" control the Saudi reserves. As a result, the dollar will become an anachronism, which will immediately refuse the whole world in favor of gold. Although this scenario is the inevitable effect inevitable devaluation of the dollar, for its accelerated implementation can deprive Russia of strategic advantages in the generated order; we risk not to have time with the rearmament and expansion of the industrial muscle that can unite the vast expanses of Northern Eurasia.

The situation around Syria and Iran is the most significant challenge to Russian statehood, comparable on the likely consequences with the attack of Nazi Germany on the Soviet Union. We must remain steadfast in support of the Syrian and Iranian regimes, otherwise, further escalation of violence in the Middle East to stir ethnic tensions in the southern and Northern Caucasus and avalanche overwhelm fragile political regimes of Central Asia. Best-case scenario the Russian elite to turn the "Eastern crisis" in a symbol of the revival of the former political power, which we expect; even those of individual Western politicians, sounded incredulous about Russia 1990-ies, now have high hopes for our country. Indeed, much has changed in the world: from the rogue state, which "for decency" adopted at the G8, we become a pillar of the existing order. Once Russia becomes a peacemaker and there is something mystical: after all, we are the birthplace of L. N. Tolstoy, inspired by ideas of non-violence all the subsequent generations, including the humble Indian lawyer named Gandhi. By and large, only Russia to solve it: a world without war or war without peace.


  1. Modern ethnopsychology. A reader / ed. by A. E. Taras. – Mn.: Harvest, 2003.
  2. Konotopov M. V., Smetanin S. N. Economic history of foreign countries. – M.: KNORUS, 2010.

* It was preceded by the invention of D. Papin steam boiler in 1680, Newcomen – steam water-raising machines in 1705, I. Polzunova - steam blower machine in 1763-1765.

**Cm. read more: Creating a North American Community. Chairmen''s Statement.

Independent Task Force on the Future of North America // Sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations in association with the Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales and the

Canadian Council of Chief Executives:

*** Is located on the territory of Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Oman, UAE, Turkey and partially in Syria. Its area is 1.43 million km2. The first oil field (soleyman) opened in 1908, gas (Pars) — in 1965 . Within the Persian Gulf there are about 300 oil and gas fields, of which 13 oil from 1 to 10 and 40 billion tons of oil from 100 million to 1 billion tons a Significant portion of oil and gas basin is located in the Arabian Peninsula, he further extends North-East into the Persian Gulf and on the southwest slope of the mountain chain Zagros. This pool is located on the territory of Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE and Oman.

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