Sergei Grinyaev: the Decision to change administration in Tbilisi was adopted by curators from Washington"
Material posted: Publication date: 07-10-2012

The Russian expert offers to wait at least the traditional "100 days" for Bidzina Ivanishvili to make some conclusions and predictions.

Despite ardent anti-Russian stance of Mikheil Saakashvili that Russia belongs to a number of large, including infrastructure enterprises in Georgia. With the victory of the bloc Bidzina Ivanishvili at parliamentary elections, can we expect a greater involvement of Russian capital in Georgia?

First of all, we should specify that in the question was an innocent mistake – a number of enterprises on the territory of Georgia does not belong to Russia, and private Russian capital. As for the Russian state capital, its in Georgia is small and its share will not increase significantly, at least in connection with the coming to power in the Republic “Georgian dream”. As for private capital, the situation is dictated solely by the interests of the business if the new administration will offer interesting terms of cooperation, then, of course, the share of Russian business in Georgia will grow. In the former Soviet Union the example of Georgia is not unique. And in this context, we can recall the Baltic countries are actively conducting anti-Russian policy, but existing at the expense of tax revenues from transshipment of Russian cargo through the Baltic ports.

Representatives of the "Georgian dream" throughout the election campaign continued to sign allegiance to the Pro-Western course. This was done in the framework of the campaign, or from Ivanishvili should expect continuity in this regard, given that the US continues to be a donor No. 1 first and foremost in the implementation of infrastructure projects in Georgia?

I believe that the continuity of the foreign policy of Tbilisi will be really saved. Very significant geopolitical position of Georgia, and the loss of influence by the US in the region will not be even with the change of administration. Moreover, I believe that the scenario of change of power in Tbilisi is not that other, as the process of controlled transfer of power from one controlled group to another - at least controlled. This, in particular, and very simple and easy care of Mikheil Saakashvili to the opposition. I think that without a clear confidence in the future he would definitely not have gone and this would not have happened. The fact that Saakashvili's regime was in need of re-branding is by far too inadequate partner he was even by the standards of the US state Department. The mere fact that he was involved in the conflict 08.08.08" unable to endure from his obvious dividends with the massive help of the West, was the starting point for the completion of his career as an inefficient Manager, which is not like in the US. But it will not leave in trouble even now, he goes to the reserve, as a person of his level, which was rising and was gradually rolled on the political horizon of the CIS over the past decade. However, today the situation in Georgia can really get out of control – too difficult was a host of these in this part of the Caucasus.

So, in addition to claims to the sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, almost openly claims to Adjara Ankara. In addition seriously complicated socio-economic situation in the country. For this reason, "curators from Washington" and the decision was made to change administration in Tbilisi.

What changes can be expected in trade and economic relations between Armenia and Georgia, taking into account the planned configuration changes in Russian-Georgian relations after the victory of Georgian dream in the parliamentary elections?

First of all, we should expect the increasing trade between the two countries, including at the expense of transit of Russian goods. You should also wait for the revitalization of the Russian business, for which the transport problems connected with Armenia were crucial in calculating the economic efficiency of new projects. Above I noted that with the advent of favorable conditions, will appear and investment, including in transport infrastructure. Do not rule out that this is raised and the Russian state capital. For Armenia, of course, it's a good sign. However, once again – there is no reason to say that the situation in Russian-Georgian relations will change diametrically. Again there is the example of Ukraine, where before the next elections, the administration in Kiev regularly makes overtures to Moscow, and after winning re-turns as a hut on chicken legs "back to the woods"...

Georgia is a key transit country for Armenia and Azerbaijan. Some of the geopolitical transformations in the South Caucasus can be expected with the change of power in Georgia?

Indeed, Georgia today is an important element of geostrategic maneuvers of the great powers in the region. This, actually, and is determined by the scenario that is now being implemented in Tbilisi. Because the United States under any circumstances do not wish to lose control over the political situation in such a significant region, especially in terms of maintaining tension in relations with Iran. I believe that this is connected another question - the aspirations of Georgia to NATO membership will remain. In any case, today I do not see any obvious positive trends that could determine the nature of bilateral Russian-Georgian relations at least in the medium term. I suggest to wait at least the traditional "100 days" for Bidzina Ivanishvili and then it will be already possible to draw some conclusions and even predictions.


Source: http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=6B21E8D0-0F9E-11E2-92BCF6327207157C

Tags: assessment , Russia , strategy , forecasts , Caucasus