The medium-term sustainability assessment of the Eurasian Union under different scenarios for the world economy
Material posted: -Publication date: 14-11-2012
In today's world, there are several different unions of states. Some of them are effective, others have not yet manifested themselves, and others - so far only in terms of politics. The establishment of such unions participating States to pursue a variety of tasks ranging from economic and financial, to the military and political. Almost always, the leaders of the present and personal incentives for consolidation or integration.

Some time the union can exist on personal motives of leaders, on one policy and on joint military interests. But in intermediate term and furthermore in long-term perspective those unions which are based on real competitive economy will be well-grounded only. Therefore for the correct determination of intermediate term and long-term perspectives of the unions of the states the estimation of their financial and economic bases acquires a special urgency.

At preparation of the present materials trying of an estimation of a financial and economic stability of the Euroasian union (EAS) which long shots of creation are presented by leaders of the countries-participants in the end of the last year is undertaken.

Stability is an ability of complicated system to save the backbone properties under the influence of negative factors. With reference to financial and economic system the stability means ability to overcome defolt situations.

It is natural that for this purpose it is necessary to use and analyze great volume of the specific information on the various countries - to possible participants of future EAS. This information collected from various radiants, is presented in application to informational-analytical materials.

As in plots of creation EAS introduction of the uniform rated currency, one of the main aspects, defining stability EAS at a stage of its formation is supposed, the estimation of a possibility of combination of financial systems of the countries entering into it is. For this purpose it is necessary to analyze not only and financial tools not so much applied in the different countries - jars, funds, stock exchanges, the insurance companies etc., and first of all - fundamental bases of financial systems of the countries: ratios between values of an exterior debt, stored international reserves, export-import possibilities, intensity of inflow/outflow of the financial capital and also to size up duration of the maximum periods on which each country can essentially restrict the import in case of origin of problem situations.

In other words, first of all it is necessary to size up not quality of financial systems which can essentially differ in the different countries, and their similitude, the potential possibilities defined by real economy of the countries.

The technique of determination of conditions of a financial and economic stability of the countries which can enter in EAS, is applicable as for a case of the stable external economic environment when negative exterior affectings wear an inadvertent random in character and in the core are caused by internal reasons, and for conditions of world crisis when under the influence of exterior conditions possibilities of the countries on export and import essentially vary. The analysis of the relative exchange rates of the various countries was the main method of research. The supposition became the base to it that dynamics of rates of exchange considers all significant factors and in the concentrated type reflects principal fundamental lines of functioning of financial systems of the countries. Such supposition is analogous to one of the main axioms of proximate analysis of the financial markets: «the prices consider all!».

For establishment of ability of financial systems to withstand crisis shocks ratings of the financial stability which circuit of determination also contains in the fourth section are applied.

Determination of a possibility of long-term consolidation of the countries within the limits of EAS is based on reviewing positive sinergeticheskih effects in economy. Therefore further three possible big designs which implementation will allow to add economy EAS additional positive pulses are specified.

After reviewing of destabilising factors and scenary prognoses of existence and development EAS the SWOT-analysis of problems EAS which allows to reveal strong and weaknesses of the design, its potential possibilities and threats at implementation is presented. Outcomes of the conducted research can be used at strategic planning of a complex of provisions on creation and development EAS.

Tags: assessment , Russia , forecasts