Methods of assessing the stability of the state in the implementation of external and internal threats to security and the state's ability to form a regional or global power center
Material posted: -Publication date: 14-12-2012
Military-political situation in the world, in the region or between countries is exacerbated when the economic, diplomatic and other regulatory instruments and parry problems reach their limit and military force becomes the last effective argument. Therefore in a basis of the analysis of the significant factors influencing formation in the intermediate term and long-term period of political-military circumstances in the world and promoting formation of the geopolitical centres of forces, results of the forecast of expected terms and possible aftereffects of crises in fundamental spheres of ability to live of the world community should be assumed. First of all - in financial and economic sphere, in the field of extraction and consumption of the basic resources, demographic, food. If in these key areas there are crises there is a high probability of their reinforcement and extending. And then often there is a temptation to solve all problems power methods that increases probability of military conflicts and their subsequent development into various wars.

The analysis shows that at the heart of a considerable unit of wars and military conflicts of the XX-th century there was a struggle for forward positions in a world financial system and for access to the basic power resources, first of all - to oil. These features have defined the basic features of development of political-military circumstances in the world in the last century and will continue it to define the proximal decades.

Sometimes in the capacity of the reasons of wars repartition of commodity markets is called. But this reason can be observed in terms of a concurence of the basic world currencies: if any currency wins competitive struggle in some market it automatically leads to its capture. Therefore it is necessary to search for the reasons of many wars in financial sphere. As fundamental defects which constantly produce crises of various level are built in a modern world financial system.

At the analysis of political-military circumstances in the world the concept about the centres of forces is often used. In the capacity of them the countries or the blocks of the countries possessing the greatest ability of counteraction to internal and external negative affectings and capable to make solving impact on change of circumstances in the world or region in the necessary direction for are observed. Discriminate the geopolitical and regional centres of forces.

Studying of the conditions promoting origination and existence of the centres of forces, can appear useful at forecasting of political-military circumstances in regions and in the world. Actually the bulk of such forecasts traditionally is based on concept use about the centres of forces, their interacting and counteraction.

Last reports of the international expert organisations show that the world centre of force is displaced from the West to the East and the South after centre of economic development. Defenᥠassignments and war industry of the countries of Asia and the South America grow leading rates.

The international institute of strategic researches (IISS) has published the report «Military balance-2011». As head IISS professor John Chipmen has noted, «in the world there is a strategic disproportionation of military power. While the West countries devide out the defenßÑ budgets, the states with new economy, including China, India and Brazil, increase expenditures on defence, getting all new systems of armaments». As a result, by estimations IISS, possibilities of the countries of the West on conducting of scale military operations are devided out. For example, Naval Forces of the USA instead of the planned 32 destroyers of class-room Zumwalt will gain only 3. In the meantime «China, India and Brazil raise strategic power of the Naval Forces, volplaning creation of shock groups with aeroplane carriers». Moreover, the western defenßÑ industry even more often faces "cut-throat competition" from producers from Brazil, China, Russia, Singapore, Southern Africa and South Korea. War industry of the countries with the growing markets achieves notable results on the advanced and high technology directions.

The basic advantage of the offered approach, in our opinion, consists in it sistemnosti, allowing in a complex to consider internal and external threats to security of the country, and also factors, its reducing or its raising.

Tags: assessment , security , forecasts