Who shot, anywhere?
Material posted: Publication date: 06-02-2013

Information about the air attack on a facility in Syria extremely controversial. In fact, it is unknown who made it (though by default it is assumed that it was the Israeli air force), nor what was the purpose of the RAID.

According to one version, point bombed a convoy of trucks carrying weapons for Hizbullah from Syria to Lebanon. On the other, became the subject of the research center CERS in Gamrie where were developing chemical and biological weapons. Moreover, Syrian rebels shortly after the incident stated that they struck at the center.

Some analysts believe that attacks could be two or even more. Others make a coincidence: Israel bombed a convoy and the rebels at the same time attacked the subject in Gamrie.

There is also no evidence that the convoy was carrying Hizbullah chemical weapons. Perhaps the blow was directed at anti-aircraft missiles "ground - to-air" that belonged to Hezbollah, but was kept in Syria. There were missiles in stock or already on the road to Lebanon – is unknown. The latest version put forward by the American media, noting that fighters of the "Party of Allah" could initiate a transfer of arms, for fear of their falling into the hands of the opposition.

Finally, it is believed that the real purpose of the RAID was to test the effectiveness of the Syrian air defense systems, equipped mainly with Russian equipment. For many years legends (supported by the Russian military) that Syrian airspace protected. They were first questioned in 2007 when Israeli aircraft destroyed a Syrian nuclear facility. What Israeli jets for the second time to perform such an operation, a nasty surprise for Damascus and encouraging news for his enemies.

Iran reacted to the attack even more sharply than Syria itself. Officials in Tehran has urged Damascus to the retribution, and Islamic countries to diplomatic actions against Israeli leaders. However, the Iranian leaders are not going to get involved in a war for its ally. They would welcome the escalation of tensions between Syria and Israel, because it would distract the world from the Iranian nuclear issue. In addition, if such a conflict happens, it will soon be stopped under pressure from the international community, and Israel at some time have to abandon the military operations, demonstrating their commitment to peace.

Pit two of their opponents openly and dream of Turkish leaders. For them, the war of Syria and Israel would be the best option that eliminates the need for themselves to take part in military action against Assad.

But Syria in its current sad state is not even trying to threaten Israel. One military source in Damascus said his country is unlikely to give Israel an adequate response. Assad, of course, may call for a Jihad against the "Zionist enemy", but the opposition will not fall for this trick – now it needs power, but with Israel can be sorted out later. The most real danger is the attacks by Hizbullah and terrorist attacks against Jewish and Israeli sites in the world. But theoretically the threat is always there.

With harsh criticism against Israel made by Russia. According to experts, such a reaction is caused not so much by the fact that Moscow continues to protect Assad, how the participation of Russian experts in the work of the research centre in Gamrie. It is also possible that the reputation of the military affected by the operation, which proved the inefficiency of the Russian air defense in Syria. The Israeli press, meanwhile, citing Syrian opposition sources, suggests that the strike on the research facility was secretly aligned with Moscow during the visit of the adviser to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's national security Jacob Amidror.

On the official level, Israel has not commented on the incident. However, a week ago, Vice Premier Silvan Shalom warned that Jerusalem is ready to resort to military action to prevent weapons of mass destruction in the hands of militants. For the last time in the North of the country was established three anti-missile system "Iron dome" - near Izrailskoi valley, Haifa and Safed. However, the aggravation of the situation on the Northern border was expected for a long time.

The U.S. state Department didn't respond to the information about the attack, but Secretary of defense Leon Panetta said he supported any action to prevent the transfer of chemical and biological weapons to terrorists.

It is known that at the research center CERS were not only scientific laboratories and arsenals of unconventional weapons, but also the school training of the Syrian special forces. According to some, there were also the fighters of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps from Iran. In 2003 the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions against CERS, and in 2005, U.S. President George W. Bush accused him of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Thus, the most likely version that the target of the attack, the Israeli air force was exactly this object.

It is believed that the reason for the attack was a message to Saudi media that in February-March last year, Syria transferred to Hezbollah two tons of mustard gas and missiles of a range up to 300 km, capable of carrying warheads with chemical weapons. But then it would be logical to strike at the positions of "Hezbollah".

The real reason for the surgery, rather, you should consider approaching a tipping point in the Syrian conflict. The opposition for two years are unable to overthrow the Assad regime that does not suit the main opponents of the Syria – Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. Their intervention in the conflict, either by themselves or with the support of the West is becoming more and more real. It will lead to the collapse of the country, the anarchy or the transfer of power to the Islamists and the reign of terror. Israel is trying to destroy Syrian weapons of mass destruction before the onset of chaos. Maybe in the near future will suffer a number of similar attacks on other Syrian WMD arsenals, although there is no guarantee that some amount of chemical weapons do not fall "into the wrong hands".

In fact, the Jewish state is at a disadvantage. Israel is not interested in overthrowing the Assad regime, but unwittingly contributes to its weakening, demonstrating to the world the vulnerability of the Syrian air defense. It can accelerate foreign invasion of Syria, and a nightmare of uncontrolled unconventional weapons will become a reality sooner than we expected.

Irina Petrova


Source: http://www.mignews.com/news/analitic/world/030213_113802_20074.html

Tags: Iran , assessment , war , Syria , Israel , aviation