Earlier this week the anti-crisis creditors - the IMF, ECB and European Commission had promised Cyprus a 10 billion euros tranche on favourable terms, if you will, of course, the conditions on the "cutting" of deposits. On 3 April, the international monetary Fund has already announced the amount he will give in may – one billion euros for three years.
The bankruptcy of Cyprus is interesting not so much regularity as the suddenness. For anybody not a secret that Cypriots, although living on a Grand scale, with a GDP of $ 29.430, really produce nothing. The structure of its economy, according to the national registration chamber, consists of tiny enterprises (95% of the total) with a staff of no more than 10 people, and with a predominance of firms employing only one person. In practice, this means that the majority of these mini-enterprises, paying an annual fee of 350 Euro per year, twist billions, because they have a symbolic tax rate on foreign-economic activity.
The image of a prosperous offshore attractive for everyday life, it was necessary to support serious funding. And this was done at the expense of external borrowings. This was a pattern that Cyprus became insolvent.
The suddenness of default is surprising that such countries, like Cyprus, the world is full, and, although occasionally hear the criticism against them, long may they live in limbo, regularly taking new money to pay off former deputies. But one day the creditors, if by agreement, they say: "pay your dues", and the world learns about the impending bankruptcy of the whole state. As a result, the insiders make their fortunes at the money that investors lose their bankrupt financial institutions.
Something similar happened with Russia on 17 August 1998, with Argentina in December 2001, and then in Greece – 2010. Usually, it is accompanied by international political flogging and internal reorganization.
"Cyprus does not fit into the new European world order, which sets the tone for a successful market model of Germany, - says Sergey Grinyaev, doctor of technical Sciences, General Director of the Center for strategic estimates and projections. – That Germany is committed to another European Union, with the actual center in Berlin, no longer a secret. The bankruptcy of the Turkish Cypriot will lead to high levels of unemployment and social tension. The logic is simple, over time, any Cyprus national leader who can offer a real exit from the crisis, will receive the mandate, even if he is Pro-German politician."
"SP": - What is the harm done to the Cypriots, the Germans?
The offshore threat to global real economy. This issue has been raised repeatedly at the summits "the eights" and "twenties." With offshore taxpayers, including European, to evade taxes, which creates conditions for the uncontrolled use of huge sums. Offshore harshly persecuted by the Americans, suffice it to recall the bill S-681 "On the prevention of abuse of tax havens".
But that's not all! The Germans, who have one of the most technologically advanced economies, with a high level of added value and with a solid tax burden, under the strong pressure of producers from other countries using offshore companies to reduce the cost of their products. In other words, "fiscal launderettes" create conditions for unfair competition. At the same time Germany is becoming a real center of power in the European Union, which allows it to use various policy levers to further concentration of power. Berlin among other things you need to know "who, how and for what purpose uses the European Finance". It is a question of control over the vassals.
"SP": - So this is largely a political game?
- Of course, the game and step on the path of permanent transformation of the Union of European States in the European Union state. That is why financial need "Ordnung". Cyprus made money is not transparent, which could mix the cards of the Berlin politicians. And seize part of deposits in Cypriot banks – and there is a devastating image blow "Gelb" against Nicosia.
"SP": - the blow was sudden, but, it seems, coordinated...
- Planned, coordinated and abrupt, which is characteristic of German politicians. Another question is why he didn't foresee the official Russian expert community and issued a warning. How could you not notice the scandalous borrowing from the pension funds of state-owned companies Cyprus of 250 million euros to pay salaries of civil servants? How could you not know that the money Cypriots gave just under 10%, and it is very expensive and says outrageous risks. Only Russia has made 2,5 billion euros under 4,5% per year.
The situation there was really hard. But, apparently, no one thought that Nicosia will reach in my pocket to private investors. Inconsistency happened with the Holy Roman ownership, which pray the Europeans.
"SP": - Who could become the next state is bankrupt? A lot of talk about the United States.
- Of course, in the future Americans are big financial earthquake. However, their economy has enough strength, therefore the US certainly not following in this list. I would have focused on the UK.
"SP": - Spain, Portugal, Italy – that country on everyone's lips, but England...
- Note that Germany was actually directed plan of an exit of Cyprus from the debt crisis. This Berlin knew that would hurt Russia's finances and companies from the UK. However, the fact that Russian oligarchic capital was hit by German politicians, there is no "nothing personal". Another thing – Britain, the ally of Germany in the European Union. Therefore, has a right to exist the next version of conspiracy: there is "cold" confrontation between Berlin, who is now trying to dominate the EU, and London. Again the differences are related to the banking sector, as the highlight of British politics is the offshore economy – the same one that causes irritation of the German Industrialists. For anybody not a secret that Britain likes to use the offshore worldwide, in particular, former colonies – Gibraltar, Bahamas, Seychelles and others. So the British company was among the most affected in Cyprus. Already from the beginning of the war against offshore companies, the Bank of England is experiencing a serious problem. It is possible that Cyprus was just testing, development of style, and the main story is yet to come.
"SP": - in other words, the default of London opens the gates for unity of command of the Germans in the European Union?
- Of course, the keys to the saucer with a Golden platter to the Germans will not, and Germany have hidden political battles with other political elites, but the banking crisis in the UK will strengthen the position of Berlin. At the same time, this crisis will hurt and for the Euro area.
"SP": - the debtor Countries flee their apartments? Wouldn't it be the beginning of the end of the EU?
- Watch, Cyprus, and Greece of the last forces cling to the Euro zone. This alone suggests that the new world order many countries in the EU are not competitive, and without the German locomotive will be very hard. In this regard, the weakening of peripheral economies also benefit Germany. This is another reason why it is so London was the next victim. The British understand this. So much so, that during the Greek crisis there was a serious conflict of Germany (Merkel) and the UK (Cameron) on the future of the EU, there were even attempts at blackmail by Britain's withdrawal from the EU, etc.
What? The parade remained in command of Berlin.
"SP": - I Wonder where you will hide the money of our oligarchs?
- Let's talk about the investors. It is possible that the lion's share of Russian money seeking asylum abroad is not quite clear. But there are investors who earned money honestly and deduce money abroad for fear of domestic social upheaval. Some experts advise even to China as a safe Harbor for secure storage savings. However, we must understand that the greatest value now have money – virtual entries in Bank computers, and new technologies and means of production of high-tech products.
Moreover, the same Cyprus has demonstrated that those citizens who are the electorate, the authorities were considered and will be considered. Therefore, the only reliable means of investment is the development of the real economy in Russia. However, this requires political guarantees in the business environment without corruption.
"SP": - a New crisis will be too sudden? And will it be in Russia?
Sudden and predictable. Sudden because of the anti-crisis Directors need events that will lead to a depreciation of assets, or to withdraw them to extinguish the debt fire. Predictable – at least according to the dynamics of accumulation of public, corporate and private debt. In Russia too high levels of corporate debt and could lead to a coordinated Western bankruptcy creditors of the real sector of our economy. So the prerequisites for the strongest and at the same time a sudden crisis, we also have.
Tags: financial center , Europe , crisis , Germany