Complete failure of the analytical community
Material posted: Publication date: 08-06-2013

"Doomed", "dying days", "criminal" the regime of Bashar al-Assad has not only survived but, in fact, became quite a respectable party to the international negotiations and has all the chances of a full military, political and moral victory.

Exactly one year ago, in the incredibly hot summer of 2012, the uneducated Mullah said in Damascus: "You will soon discover that we are not Libya, and we will defeat all our enemies. All that said newspaper on the West, it is the writings of people who do not understand anything in these events".

One of the leaders of the "Muslim brotherhood" of Syria spoke in Beirut at the same time: "We are not against NATO's military intervention, if they get out of our country after the overthrow of Bashar, but if Turkey tries to cross our border, we are all weapons will perform against the Turks".

According to, an Orthodox monk in Damascus, "the war is between Syria and Saudi Arabia, and the West will not intervene in this war, otherwise will face a huge explosion in the Arab world". Professorship, University of Damascus, the Sunnis and highly tuned opposition to the ruling regime, claimed: "the opposition has no chance of winning, because it is not the opposition, and the external aggressor. We cannot allow our country was occupied by the aggressor".

These statements do not belong to the professional political analysts and commentators, and politically active people. Simultaneously, the overwhelming majority of the analytical community of the West and Russia quite confidently asserted that the elimination of the ruling regime in Syria - a question of time. Naiad with this, no group of analysts and was able to recommend to their governments a plan of further actions.

The same analysts in London, Paris, Washington and Moscow, who are "foaming at the mouth" talked about the imminent elimination of the ruling regime, are now saying, in one voice the following: "Whatever the scenario of future events in Syria, in any scenario, the Central figure will be Bashar al-Assad.

If someone is not very carefully monitored the reaction of professional analysts, then many years working in public structures are well known in the world and the luminaries of world politics can believe that they suffered a complete fiasco as professionals.

Why something happened that shouldn't have happened, because the "opposition" had not less force than the Syrian army? The answer lies in the fact that the external aggressors from the Arab world imposed on Syria is not civil, and the national liberation war, when Syria is fighting for its national independence. Of course, external support played a big role in that Syria has survived and the "opposition" had quite a large-scale external support.

The developers of the NATO understood this situation much earlier than the "civilian" analysts, which was the basis for the decision not to pursue military intervention in Syria and to prevent the intervention of Turkey, looking at NATO and with a view to strengthen its influence in the middle East.

Syria does not expect the idyll, and the country faces decades of crisis. In any case, at least one goal decided the position of Israel has become safer. The Christian community in Syria and in neighbouring countries is not expecting anything good. In December 2012, the French Parliament had to pass a law on the protection of Christian communities in the middle East that was intended to extend this policy to the European Union. But the French Parliament failed to act, and the Declaration helped, cursed by the French socialist government. Western analysts, it would be desirable to recommend to the French deputies to adopt the law and not to draw conclusions in hindsight. Analysts live in areas of high tension, but not in large capitals.


Igor Muradyan


Tags: assessment , Syria , forecasts , geopolitics