It was exactly three years after the start of the Arab spring that began in Tunisia and quickly flowed on e in the "color revolutions". In these "revolutionary" processes, spurred on by the Wahhabis of Arabia and financed by the petrodollars of Saudi Arabia and natural gas revenues of Qatar, has actively involved foreign mercenaries from numerous extremist and terrorist groups the most various Islamic countries. To date, apparently, the "revolutionary spirit" had vanished, and countries for which a wave of "revolutions" are in ruins or are on the verge of collapse. The middle East, which we knew all these years and until December 2011, no longer exists. So what are the results of the Arab "spring" and that waiting for this forever troubled region in the future?
Concrete and lying on the surface the results of all these processes is quite obvious. On Syria, although there is ongoing civil war, and ended the wave of "revolutions", shipwrecked on the resistance of the Assad regime, the unwillingness of the Syrian people to live according to the norms of Wahhabi Shariah and the firm position of Russia, which three times blocked the UN security Council anti-Syrian draft resolutions interventionist plan. Joint plan of West-GCC to pursue the overthrow of Syria's legitimate government under the guise of solving world community failed. And fighting on the Saudi, Qatari, Kuwaiti and Emirati money fighters, including from al-Qaeda, are unable to defeat the military units loyal to Assad. And then there's President Barack Obama, under pressure from Moscow and, having been frightened of coming to power in Damascus rabid Islamists, in September, refused from unilateral attacks on Syria, backed a proposed Russian plan to destroy Syrian chemical weapons.
The war in Syria could not but affect the situation in neighboring Lebanon, where growing confrontation along ethnic and religious lines. And many Lebanese groups, especially Hezbollah, were direct participants in the Syrian conflict.
It's a pity that the Arab "spring" drowned before – in Libya, what could happen if the then-anti-Libyan resolutions were blocked in the UN security Council. But the past will not return. As a result, Libya has turned into a failed state (failed state), and is on the verge of collapse, because of Assaad and Cyrenaica declared autonomy, and the real power of the Central government extends only to Tripolitania. And what's worse – in the future, Libya are waiting for the "somalization" when the country will not have any power, except for the areas of control of individual armed groups, created on a tribal basis. Here is the result of the intervention of NATO and the Wahhabi monarchies!
Another result of the Arab "spring" is an endless succession of regime change in Egypt, which has always been considered a leading country in the Arab world, from which depended the stability of the entire Middle East region. Egypt is now also on the verge of becoming a failed state and full-scale civil war. Has been a month since supporters of "Muslim brotherhood" daily demonstrations across the country demanding the release of President Mohamed Morsi, and the army and the police are forced to resort to the use of force. How long will the military elite in Cairo, one can not predict. But clearly another – if in Egypt all the same election, then the authorities will almost certainly again come the legal way "Muslim brotherhood". And then everything moves again, given that the other half of the population of Egypt doesn't want to live under Sharia law. And all this is the result of political games of Saudi Arabia and Qatar on the background of the powerlessness of the US diplomacy. And the end result may be a complete degradation of Egypt and its economic exhaustion, leaving the backyard not that global, but also regional policy.
A similar scenario is developing in Tunisia, where it all went. There also looms the prospect of transforming political conflict into armed struggle.
Another victim of the Arab "spring" is Bahrain. It was all suppressed by the occupation of the Kingdom of Saudi troops. If they withdraw today, tomorrow the Shiite majority will once again take to the streets against the ruling Sunni dynasty, representing one third of the population of the island.
Did not pass the above-mentioned events, and Yemen. President Saleh eventually ceded power, but it has not brought calmness and peace. Al-Qaeda is increasing its attacks, the rebel Houthis in the North continue to fight, the conflict within the ruling elite remains, exacerbated the problem of southern separatism, and the fast growing influence of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula threatens the collapse of Yemen into several quasi –States or enclaves. And all this is a result of the policy of Saudi Arabia and Qatar in Yemeni Affairs.
In Jordan, the situation is somewhat better, but still runs the risk of confrontation between supporters of the current monarchical regime and the Islamists under the influence of the Syrian conflict.
Even the sponsors of the Arab "revolutions" were in a difficult position. Greatest "financier" and "motor" in the face of Qatar himself suffered directly, when at the end of June this year, tired of the excessive intervention of the Emirate in all conflicts, and relying on terrorists and extremists, the Saudis and the Americans simply dismissed presumptuous Emir Hamad and behind him a corrupt Prime Minister Hamid bin Jassim from power, replacing the young and inexperienced crown Prince Tamim, who is now generally trying not to get stuck anywhere. In other small countries of the GCC, the situation is better, but there has been a rise of protest moods under the influence of the Islamists and the discontent of immigrant workers on the status of people of the "third grade". But in Kuwait and the role of the Shia factor.
But the most important abscess Matures in Saudi Arabia – the grey cardinal of the Arab "spring", its main driving force. There will be a change of generations, as king Abdullah and crown Prince Salman are not just old, but seriously ill. In the ruling al-Saud family is growing tension and contradictions are spreading, the younger generation no longer wants to live the standards of the Wahhabis of the 18th century, increasing protests of the Shiite minority, living primarily in the oil area of the country, sucks in a short-sighted policy of the KSA involvement in the conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Egypt and Iraq, for which there is the head of intelligence, Prince Bandar, artificially stirred up hostility to Iran, which is quickly coming out of Western isolation. The Kingdom can simply break up into 4-5 pieces, some of them may be absorbed by neighbouring countries. If Saudi Arabia collapses, the whole middle East is going to shake to the ground.
Even far from the Middle East Algeria increases the risk of destabilization, given that there soon will face a presidential election, and the question of succession of power is not solved. Generation "of revolutionary guerrillas", who achieved independence from France, became very old. Yes and al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb has increased its activity in the country.
Iraq has been and remains the scene of armed terror between Shiites and Sunnis on the background of the separation of the Kurds. There are growing contradictions within the ruling Shiite elite. The activity of the terrorist underground and the Baathist resistance has not abated. While Saudi Arabia continues to push the Sunni population of Iraq for secession or autonomy.
During the Arab "revolutions" of the Palestinian problem is nearly forgotten, but she recently rallied all Arabs. But the fire of conflict in Palestine smolders as the ongoing settlement policy of Israel, and the negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis out of the stalemate.
Amid all this affected Turkey, which has decided to actively participate in the Syrian conflict. As a result, most of the country last summer, a wave of powerful protests, which significantly undermined the authority of Prime Minister Erdogan and reduced the role of the foreign policy of Ankara. Yes and its stability is now in question.
Winning the only regional country from all these events in the middle East was Iran. After the change there is President Ahmadinejad, who in July was replaced by Rouhani, Tehran in a short time managed to negotiate with the West on the issue of its nuclear program and to begin the process of normalization of relations with the USA and EU countries. There are prospects of the withdrawal of all financial, economic and military sanctions that would enable Iran to quickly transform into the most powerful regional power against the background of decline of the leading Arab States. This means an entirely new balance of power in the middle East, and most importantly – in the Persian Gulf, which produces 2/3 of the volume of oil in the world. The more that the U.S. reduce its presence in the region, leaving in the more important region – Asia-Pacific, where they need to restrain the growth of China's influence.
So, starting the "revolution", the conservative Arab monarchies – they are the instigators, ultimately harmed themselves, undermining the role of the Arab world in General and being on the brink of collapse. And on the stage appeared a new powerful player – Iran, which will bet on the Shiites in the Arab countries, which further redraw the political map of the Middle East. It is possible that will come true nightmare of the Saudi kings about the formation of a Shiite arc from Tehran to Beirut. To wait remains not so long.
Petr Lvov, doctor of political Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine "New Eastern Outlook".
Source: New Eastern Outlook
Tags: assessment , geopolitics , Near East