What are you waiting for? Ukraine: many "buts" and no answer
Material posted: -Publication date: 09-06-2014

In today's reports from Slavyansk again information about casualties among the civilian population. Killed five-year-old girl...

The situation in this city, people's Republic of Donetsk remains extremely tense. Today the rest of Ukraine just resigned Newswires. Even the Odessa tragedy is almost inexistent (except for the information about the transfer of N. Mikhalkov funds to victims of may 2 in Odessa).

But why today are so passive Russia? Why is today the most active topics in the Russian media are the themes of the release of the journalists and another "unexpected" floods? And the introduction of a no-fly zone or humanitarian corridor have less active information support? But... we Can assume that this media is just a mirror reflecting current YTD difficult internal political situation in Russia.

But the situation around and Ukraine is no less a mirror of what is happening. And looking at it and need to see what is happening in Moscow.

It is reasonable to assume that before the April talks in Geneva, the situation developed in a complex, intense, but clear script.

At that time, Russia clearly stated its commitment to the spirit and letter of the agreement of February 21, signed with the mediation of the Ministers of France, Germany and Poland. And willingness to return the situation to its original position. Legitimate President of Ukraine was forced into exile and foreign historical experience and analogy is quite possible to play this map. At least until the election of a new President of Ukraine(which Moscow did not plan to support). The so-called "authorities" in Kiev at the time was "neruopathy" for Moscow, any negotiations with her to not intended. The rigid position of the Russian leadership on the gas issue was very clear, and the signed gas contract was allowed to catch up with Kiev even support Europe.

After Geneva, the situation changed dramatically. Because it was initially clear that no decision of this meeting the situation will not change, but the very fact of Moscow being ready to sit at the table – it already was worth a lot! The weird thing is that (and who) caused the Russian side to sit down at the negotiating table? Surely the most notorious sanctions? We eagerly hope and await the day when Paris will block the supply of "Mistral", but he did not block her. And what sanctions can be terrible, if in your hands the gas cap? There is enough only the hard will.

But First... a very dangerous step was taken – at the negotiating table was the illegitimate Kiev government and the official representative of Moscow. Since then, the scenario of "President in exile" was already beginning to slip.

What happened afterwards is even more puzzling start. At the end of may Dmitry Medvedev in a hard tone instructs the leadership of Gazprom: "Translate Ukraine for advance payment!" [1]. And what? There were talks in the long, viscous the format is still going on! Moscow recognized the portion of the payment, agreeing on installments and an opportunity to discuss new discount on gas for Ukraine! And the mode of payment was postponed to start on 9 June, then on 10 June [2] A. Yatsenyuk has openly said the use of European money to pay gas debt, and for payments of "combat" and procurement of weapons for the Nazis in the South-East of Ukraine: "While Miller will suffer!" And it suffers! In the "gas topic" from Kyiv there is a real blackmail and arm twisting, but no response was equally harsh response - again only promises to transfer to prepay.

Russia is marking time and is very happy when Ukraine agrees not to apply "gas" a lawsuit in the Stockholm arbitration court. Why, if everything is transparent?

The referendum in the South-East at a sufficiently intense light in the Russian media in the information space quickly disappeared, replaced by the inauguration of the new President.

Even before this event, Moscow confidently said that will neither meet or engage in dialogue with Petro Poroshenko prior to his negotiations with representatives of DND and LNR and cease the punitive operation. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation stressed that the meetings and negotiations is not planned [4]. But... an "unexpected" meeting in Normandy took place and the next day Moscow announced the return of its Ambassador to Kiev, withdrawn from the beginning of the coup [5]. Before that, Russian President Vladimir Putin during a media forum of the popular front in St. Petersburg made clear his attitude to the Kiev government is a junta [6]. What does this mean? Refer to Wikipedia. According to this source, the junta is a military group that came to power by force in a coup, and, as a rule, conducting a dictatorial reign of terror methods [7]. In other words, no civilized ways of communicating with such a guide is impossible. But...

Meanwhile, the situation in the South-East of the country continues to deteriorate. Civilians left without water and almost no food. The overwhelming superiority of Kiev in arms, and most importantly – the presence of aviation makes the defense of the city very difficult. And here again, "but...": the question of imposing a no-fly zone over the South-Eastern regions of Ukraine being once raised, went unanswered except for one lingering comment about the fact that Russia has no plans to bring this issue to the UN security Council meeting [8]

Against this background, the Russian media (what is most important – Central!) began to quote, "mouthpiece" of the Kiev propaganda website "Information resistance"[9]. You can imagine the situation, when the Soviet information Bureau in its reports is based on the propaganda of Goebbels. But... Despite the fact that the President of the Russian Federation clearly defined benchmarks of what is happening, what the government in Kiev – junta and cliques, and the events in the South-East – punitive operation. Many Russian media continue to use the terms "anti-terrorist operation" (who's the terrorist?), I continue to quote from official sources of the Ministry of defence of Ukraine, SBU, interior Ministry, thereby yielding in the information-psychological struggle.

And what about the gas contract with Beijing? It really is so beneficial? Possible. But what he is consistent about ten years and was signed in a matter of days speaks volumes.

In recent years, the US is a lot of talk about the rebellion "Eastern Dragon" that China is a danger the US and a new contender for world domination. But... is it really corny stupid analysts in Washington, to allow a favorable gas deal Moscow and Beijing, in fact, own hands forcing both sides to the signing of the contract? Prior to this transaction, Beijing depended on energy supplies by sea, completely controlled by the U.S. Navy, however, the access to the gas deposits of Central Asia and, especially, gas from Russia, provide Beijing with a strong Foundation. Is it really so short-sighted analysts of the CIA and RUMO? Doubt it...

Why so quiet has become in Syria? Is the problem really solved? Why Israel was almost the only country that is clearly not supported, but quite frankly sympathized with Moscow's position on Crimea?

In General, today "but" much more than answers almost on all questions of the geopolitical agenda of Russia. However, the situation in cities of the South-East of Ukraine is what it is today, and the civilian casualties are quite real and concrete.

You can clearly understand that the deployment of troops in this situation is exactly what we are pushing and there are some other tools as hot favorite in recent time, the tools of "soft power", and time-tested tools is quite a brute force.




[1] http://vz.ru/news/2014/5/8/685909.html

[2] http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=1652481

[3] http://imperiya.by/news.html?id=137024

[4] http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/27248081/vstrecha-putina-i-poroshenko-vo-francii-ne-planiruetsya

[5] http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/27464651/posol-vernetsya-k-inauguracii

[6] http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/925338

[7] http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D5%F3%ED%F2%E0

[8] http://argumenti.ru/politics/2014/06/343271

[9] http://ria.ru/world/20140507/1006808028.html

Tags: assessment , Russia , war , Ukraina