Some genuinely don't understand why for some time, Shooters in addition to reports of fighting, quite systematically utters quite pessimistic things. In fact, here the reasons are quite transparent.
In may—June, when changed in April political line (the issue of troops was withdrawn on April 24) progressively started to influence the operational-tactical situation on Donbass, the hostilities gradually gained momentum, coming to a situation where irregular militia was forced to fight against the regular army. This scenario is at the stage of seizure of power in Donetsk, Lugansk and Slavyansk was not originally planned — all were laid on the recognition of the Russian Federation and enter the Russian troops.
After the outbreak of hostilities and changes in the political line, the agenda came the question of covert assistance. With respect to Strelkov, plus 3 months of fighting under Slavonic, he had just 2-2.5 thousand people (small arms + heavy machine guns, automatic grenade launchers, ATGMs (part outside), a few MANPADS, and so on), all 3 tanks + the monument is-3, several APCS and BMD, 4 or 5 "Non", and several anti-aircraft guns of 12.7 and 23 mm. This is approximately the size of one column from "Voentorg", which the junta now fixes almost every day. That's about all that got Shooters sitting in Slavyansk for 3 months and stubby size help was perfectly visible by the fact that evacuated from Slavyansk and the extremely scanty trophies, which were able to show the junta (1 BMD, the party outside of ATGMs, machine guns and some mines).
All that kept Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Nikolayevka, Semyonovka, Krasny Liman and other population points at a ratio of 1 to 3.5 to 4.5 in favor of the enemy.
That is, we must understand that from the point of view of weapons, aid was received, but was insufficient in the fight against the enemy force of up to 10-12 thousand people. not to mention tanks, artillery and aviation. Therefore, the development of hostilities and the rapid buildup of enemy forces, Strelkov started openly to make complaints, the General sense of which boiled down to the fact that the assistance is insufficient.
Nevertheless, the curators of Russian policies in Donbass (and this is primarily marmots, which transferred part of the levers of Russian policy in the Donbas, pushing from these processes Volodin) quite calmly watched as the junta is slowly but surely covered Slavyansk, closing the ring operational environment. As quietly looked at the enclave in Soledar (since March, was guarded by special forces of the junta — 150-250 people), where more than 1 million units of small arms, which began to arrive on the black market, getting on the armament of the militia and the punitive battalions for the money (the trade started approximately in late April or early may, when the parties start to massively celebrated old weapons). Actually the Shooters in the spring wrote that you had to buy weapons from the junta officers.
For 3 months people were not clear of the storm tank base in Artemovsk, where even according to pessimistic estimates had to 20-25 combat-ready tanks, not to mention the ability to repair more or less preserved machine at the expense of very non-business. For months it did not bother to take, not to mention the creation of the unlocking group that could strike at covering Slavyansk columns of the junta that kept Slavyansk and Kramatorsk on. But it so happened that Slavyansk was surrounded by and eventually surrounded, and in Donetsk not even scratched. Summary about strelkov started to write the heresy that "the time Shooters sad, is to succeed", although if you look at these reports now, then they objectively reflect the deteriorating situation near Slavyansk.
The reasons for this "neglect" strelkov is quite clear, while he fought under Slavonic, went through the Donetsk people talks Surkov with Akhmetov people in the city have been a conspiracy to surrender the city to the junta. Learn more about the political background of these processes has already been painted here.
July 2 went the battles for Nikolaevka, which led to the loss of control over the last significant highway that carried out the supply of Slavyansk. Shooters "sad" even more, it became obvious that it, together with the Slavic and garrison of long ago wrote off and no one to rescue them is not going to. 2-3 July, when street battles continued in the surrounded Nikolayevka, where heroically fought the Motorola squad (even despite the betrayal of two field commanders ogoleva flank), in Slavyansk, a decision was made to erupt from the environment, one must understand that the solution had a military rationale, and political — Strelkov was warned from Moscow that the city is preparing a surrender of the city.
In the night from 4 for July 5 Shooters successfully made a breakthrough, having suffered only minor losses. He broke all the behind-the-scenes negotiations people Surkov with Akhmetov and Kolomoiskiy (through Kurginyan's people).The General meaning of these negotiations was the fact that colognelike circles, which is Surkov, Russian oligarchs (Fridman and XXX) tried to negotiate with the Ukrainian oligarchs the question of "large Transnistria" from Lugansk and Donetsk people's Republics, at the head of which was at the initial stage to stand Tsarev, which were closed part of the channels of financing the South-East.
In these contacts were covered with Donetsk mayor Lukyanchenko (fled to Kiev), the speaker of the Novorossiya Parliament, Pushilin (left from the post at his own request), the Minister GB Obama in the white house (left as Minister, the "Vostok" battalion transformed into a brigade and operationally subordinated to the staff of Strelkova), police General Pozhidayev (the Department of the interior was cleared out almost immediately after the arrival of the brigade Strelkova in Slavyansk). All these people were somehow connected with Akhmetov and Stripping the tops of the DPR was sent to antjufeev, who began to restore order, after which followed a series of resignations.
As soon as the retreat of strelkov in Slavyansk disrupted backstage talks, sharply intensified fighting along the entire front of the Ukrainian oligarchs, who were contact with Moscow, immediately became the target information of the company, Deputy Kolomoiskiy Korban with someone Kurginyan, the campaign against Kolomoiskiy in the Ukrainian mass media took on massive proportions, even a traditional plum SBU, like talking about the preparation of hounding Lyashko, the goal of which was to set the Nazi radicals against one of the sponsors. The open statement Kolomoiskiy, Filatov and Korban that we need to confiscate Akhmetov's property, did not find wide media support, the media junta quite stood up to defend Akhmetov, who already passed the junta Mariupol and set the stage for delivery of Donetsk.
After the collapse of the talks, the junta quite ceased to be ashamed to destroy the city and the infrastructure (the chance is the fact that to get them by means of agreements with the owners of Kurginyan and Co. don't have any), because only in a military way, it was possible to establish control over the Donbas.
This was followed, almost immediately, armed militias in fairly large quantity in a few days appeared tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery (howitzers D-30 and SPGs "Gvozdika"), and MLRS. That is, to better understand this week armed militias have more heavy equipment than in the previous 3 months. This led to operational results have formed the "South cauldron", the offensive which began on 1 July 13-14 July petered out in all directions. It is quite clear that if the material is technical assistance, which followed in July was at least since may in the same volumes, then the battle would now go somewhere in the area of Raisins and not under Donetsk. Thus, even despite the ongoing material and technical assistance, which were and are provided, the rate of accumulation of manpower and technology, the junta still higher (not even considering the logistical and organizational assistance of the USA and NATO). Therefore, due to the overall numerical superiority in men and materiel, the junta after the defeat regrouped and went on the offensive, attacking the weak parts of the front (the militia simply not enough people and equipment to equally well to cover all).
To be clear — Strelkov broke through to Donetsk from Slavyansk with 1 tank, 3 "Non" and several BMD/BMP. To help him went 4 tanks, 3 SAU "Carnation" and a few APCS, a little earlier, under the Donetsk were a few "Grad". All this had on a wide front stretching from the Snow through Donetsk to Gorlovka and further to the area of responsibility of Brain. The Shooters could use this to allocate for a Brain, he sent. Now his technique involves the battle for the Marinovka airport, and also provides the defense of Donetsk and Gorlovka. Forces more he is not there.
In fact, continuing his pessimistic statements come from objective assessment of the real balance of forces at the front. Fantasy on "bullet fool, the bayonet fellow" and "let the opponent has many tanks and aircraft, and we are his fighting spirit fracture" of course I can't affect severe operating environment. So "sadness" strelkov, is in fact an attempt to communicate with the public (where it enjoyed wide support) to the authorities that he needed more weapons and equipment. Of course such requests are and on closed channels — a more focused and less emotionally. But this is only one aspect.
The second aspect of the "sad" statements Strelkova, political. The failure of the party defeated with the surrender of Donetsk does not lead to its destruction. It is not difficult to see from the ongoing informational campaign against strelkov, his stay in Donetsk hinders the plans of collusion with the oligarchs and the junta on the topic of the future of Novorossia. Strelkov wants to fight and to go to Kiev, he needs arms and men, of which he has in insufficient quantity.
But since this idea enjoys public support, openly negotiate with the junta and the oligarchs on the future of the "big Transnistria" does not work. Shooters in fact aspects the idea of "large Novorossia", which Surkov and Co. for the most part written off to the scrap in the spring. That is, Strelkov is a political obstacle to attempts of political exchange of Ukraine for the DPR and LPR. That's why he will accuse of all mortal sins (the provocateur Kurginyan, in the best style Dorenko begat today that the Shooters wanted to de to shoot down Putin, and it should be understood that he was in "Boeing"), in order to clear the scene for a future collusion with the Nazi junta about the future of the DPR and LPR. While military aid to DPR will be metered, so as not to allow the resistance to collapse (in case of full draining DNR and LC for the Kremlin looks extremely burdensome), simultaneously trying to chop off the assistance channels organized by the public — locked resources informational support for DPR and LPR, the accounts are closed, including through the collusion of the Russian banks with the SBU and its owners.
The junta provocation with "Boeing", the Russian party of defeatists have already picked up actually playing to the propaganda of the junta, abrasive theses that downed Boeing was able to stand Strelkov and the militia, the attack on DPR is like in 2 hands — one side attacking the USA, their satellites and the junta, with another — the Russian comprador-defeatists and their media underlings, like Kurginyan. Stuffing about Putin, who wanted to kill the Shooters necessary to somewhere at the top gave the go-ahead to stop supporting strelkov-that is, the picture creates for society and for top management of the Russian Federation.
The General meaning of the operation consists in the following — media to discredit strelkov (remember who in the company participates, this wave can easily determine who of talking heads tied to Surkov and those who are preparing the groundwork for collusion with the Nazi junta — this is the media infrastructure of the real fifth column, not the liberasty-jugglers, which for her is usually issued) and to prepare the ground for his replacement. If it takes to drain the Brain or part of the territory around Donetsk, this does not rule out the possibility, because in the same way recently prepared the ground for the "heroic death of strelkov in Kamagrade". "Heroic death in Lysychansk Brain" can be quite comfortable to continue attacks on strelkov, who is unable to support all 4 of your tanks.
Ideal, close to the military leadership of the DPR to Surkov and Co, to preclude any independence, and then to start negotiations with the junta. Shooters are still alive and warlords like the Brain, these plans frankly stalled, and the defeatists have to spend time and political capital on strelkov's destruction.
Strelkov for this attack is obvious, therefore, and the public is trying to convey to the public and the authorities to the simple idea that to drain it just will not work (that is, silently to the slaughter he will not go) and that for the success of the war required the normal means of appealing to the "party of war", which provides a real (not PR) the supply and which is interested in spreading the insurrection beyond the Donbass. It is clear that he is not a hero-a loner and in Moscow there are structures that support it, otherwise it would long ago have been buried somewhere near Slavyansk.
And the generic meaning of all this fuss in Moscow consists in the fact that the option of strelkov are simple and clear, and Strelkov his "pessimistic" sets forth a more active management of the war in Ukraine, or a capitulation and the transfer of hostilities to the territory of the Russian Federation, although on the background of hysteria in the style of "all is lost, everything is lost", it is rather realistic fork, which is obvious since may. Shooters don't say "all is lost", he said that the trend is getting worse. And the development of the situation confirms his findings.
The party of defeatists, who gained weight after the adoption in April of the decision not to send troops, still tries to sit on the already disperse the chairs of war and capitulation, hoping to reach an agreement with the Nazi junta (which Strelkov interfere) and the Ukrainian oligarchs, in order to get the solution which can be presented as full of plums on a background of the February—March 2014.
In this scenario, Shooters whatever his views, has long become the banner of those who wish to continue the fight for all of Ukraine or at least part of it. Opponents strelkov, Ukraine has long been written off and now are seeking a way to escape from this situation, so as not to cause unrest in Russia itself, even if in the long run, the surrender of Ukraine would have on Russia's catastrophic consequences. So while this confrontation continues, the Shooters will be "sad" until such time as there is a choice of two obviously unpleasant decisions. Or until his death, and both receive bad solutions in one bottle.
Tags: assessment , war , armed forces , Ukraina