The events that occurred on the territory of North Africa ("Arab spring") involved not only the near and Middle East, they go far beyond this region. The Islamic world today is the real instigator in the revolutionary movement, which no doubt is being prepared and implemented with the direct participation of the United States. In particular, in Russia more and more often mention Tahrir square as a role model.
The events of the Arab spring unfolded in the Middle East and Maghreb – countries that possess significant hydrocarbon reserves. Oil and gas are non-renewable natural resources, their consumption is steadily increasing, and stocks may run out in about fifty to eighty years. It seems that the struggle for the redivision of the world in conditions of imminent achievement of a limit of consumption of natural resources is a key geopolitical phenomenon of our time, and the battle for the hydrocarbons of the Middle East and Maghreb – an important episode of the struggle.
As society increasingly convinced that "the people's revolution" doesn't anything except the rebel riot, anarchy, disorder and violence of some ethnic groups, increasingly asserted in this society, the idea that Americans still have a hand in the fact that ordinary, in General, the intifada developed into a nationwide civil disobedience.
"The Arab spring is an "oil boom", flying primarily in China and in India and Japan. How is it possible to reliably stop or slow the development of power, which is a potential geopolitical opponent? First of all – taking control of the energy required for this development, in this case – the main energy source – oil. The way the "boom" began in Tunisia ("trial balloon, "warm-country"), has passed through Egypt (the country key Sunni parts of the greater Middle East), Libya (first place in Africa in terms of oil reserves, or 3.4% of world reserves), Syria ("Pro-Iranian" the country of the greater Middle East), then fly to Iran (9.9% of world's oil), the States of Transcaucasia (the main purpose – oil Azerbaijan), Central Asia, Russia (5.6% of world oil reserves, taking into account the explored Arctic fields – 16%) – because in these countries the main total reserves of the Eurasian oil and – most importantly – the major transport and energy communication.
In addition, Syria, Iran and Libya are the so-called "Axis of evil" provided by the seven "terrorist countries" (five of them – the dominance of Islamic religion), which purposefully destroyed by the West in various ways. Interestingly, part of the "axis" includes three States, oil-rich – Libya, Iraq, and Iran – and one state, are important for control over oil and gas treasures of the Caspian sea region and Iran – Afghanistan.
In other words, "Colorless revolution" of the modern Middle East, carried out with varying degrees of intensity in Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, etc, are hidden, but the clear purpose to control emerging in these States is absolutely Pro-Western political regimes the oil of North Africa, the Middle East and the Persian Gulf.
Ruthless eradicating pockets of resistance to the radicalization of the Islamic world should accelerate the transformation of Islam into an instrument of global redistribution metrostroiteley. Such a tool, which could be directed against China, and against Russia, and against Europe.
As said in connection with these processes of "Voice of Russia" Syrian political analyst Tawfiq Jarrad, "all that we see and encounter is the implementation of the operation to destroy the Arab world... a blow to fell the whole spiritual life of the people... their goal is the creation of a people without a past and without a future".
War always has its causal relationship. And as if the aggressors were not articulated a pretext for his villainy, the truth is always, sooner or later, will come out. As it could not be hidden.
Muammar Gaddafi for many years was an eyesore to the international community for its "Libyan socialism". More or less evenly distributed among his people "oil rents" undermine "the foundations of capitalist economy". It turns out that even with a relatively fair distribution of this notorious rent you can get amazing results. Judge for yourself: before the war, Libya was a very developed state: In 2010, the GDP of Libya was 2.5 %. In the country at that period was the high quality of life: long life expectancy (74 years), 53 place in the index of human development and high literacy rates (88.9 percent). Under Qadhafi's rule were free education and medicine, financial assistance in acquiring housing. Also was built the great man-made river that provides drinking water to three quarters of the population of Libya. Average salary in Libya was $ 1 050 $. Half of the revenue from oil was the population of the country.
So, what are the causes of so-called colorless revolution in this wonderful country?
It's simple: Muammar Gaddafi and the Libyan people “guilty” only of its geographical and natural riches to the appetites of the West!
September 1 - the anniversary of the opening of the main Libyan section of the great artificial river. About this project Libya the media kept mum, and by the way, this project surpasses the largest construction projects.
Gaddafi began working on the project back in the 80-ies and at the beginning of the current fighting, he was practically implemented.
The only article about it: article in the Western press Underground "Fossil Water" Running Out .
Its cost 25 billion US dollars. Media refused to acknowledge that little Libya with a population of only 6 million people could do something big, not occupying countries Israeli Commonweals and bankers a dime.
And this fact certainly suggests: because control over water resources is an increasingly important factor in world politics. Whether the current war in Libya is the first war for drinking water? After all, war really is! A functioning man-made river based on water intake from 4 huge water tanks located in the oases Hamada, Kufra, Sirt and Morzuk and containing approximately 35,000 cubic kilometers of artesian water. This volume of water could completely cover the territory of a country such as Germany, the depth of this reservoir would be approximately 100 meters. According to the latest research, Libyan water from artesian springs will be sufficient for almost 5000 years. One cubic meter of crystal clear water of the Libyan underground tanks, considering all the expenses for its mining and transportation cost of the Libyan state as it is only 35 cents, which is roughly comparable to the cost of a cubic meter of cold water in a large Russian city, including Moscow. If we take into account the cost of a cubic meter of drinking water in European countries (about 2 euros), the value of stocks of artesian water of the Libyan underground tanks, according to rough estimates, almost 60 billion euros. It is impossible not to admit that this volume continues to rise in price of the resource can be of interest much more serious than oil.
Water project, Libya was a real slap throughout the West, after all, the world Bank, and the U.S. Department of state are promoting only profitable projects similar to the project of desalinization of sea water in Saudi Arabia, which costs $ 4 per cubic meter of water. It is obvious that the West favorable a shortage of water is supported by its high price.
In addition to the above is to say that politics Gaddafi also did not like the USA. He, first, tried to bring the African continent out from under usurious dependence on U.S. banks through the establishment of the African Central Bank. Secondly, it sought to withdraw Africa from the influence of the West and redirect it to the BRICS : China, India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa. Third, Gaddafi wanted to introduce a gold Dinar as currency for international transactions – at a rough estimate it would have amounted to a trillion dollars of losses for America and the EU annually. Finally, Gaddafi demanded that the us and British companies in Libya to compensate for its economic losses caused by economic sanctions, groundlessly applied to Libya in 1986-2004 (it was about 20-30 billion dollars).
Thus, it becomes understandable desire of the powers that be to strangle the most prosperous country of Africa – Libya, proving the advantages of the socialist way of development. Libya, whose desire coincides with the desires fundamentalistic Arab monarchies.
Of course, the United States will be done under another pretext, but the real reason will be the desire to keep the people of Libya oppressed, to maintain its colonial position.
The civil war in Libya became the largest on number of victims of the conflict during the Arab spring. The country suffered huge economic damage. The number of deaths as at the end of August 2011 has reached 50 thousand people. A direct consequence of the conflict was the actual collapse of the country. 2 years later after the outbreak of the civil war in the country was undertaken of policy reforms on freedom and equality. In fact, the country was governed by several dozen thousand of well-armed men, controlled by al-Qaeda and "the Party of justice and construction" (branch of the Muslim brotherhood). Political consequences of the Libyan crisis should be considered the transfer of the armed conflict on neighbouring countries, like it happened in Mali. Fought on the side of Gaddafi the Tuareg uprising in the Saharan parts of the state and took it under its control. But despite the fact that Mali's population is twice the population of Libya, this conflict, according to the New York Times columnist Ross Dutta, has not attracted as much attention due to the fact that this country has a strategically important position and rich in oil.
According to a study international consulting company Geopolicity only budgeted loss of Libya amounted to about $14 billion Great damage was inflicted to the infrastructure of the country. By August 2011 due to the lack of raw materials and poor technical condition arose, all refineries of the country. The IMF has estimated losses of GDP by the autumn of 2011 totaled $7.7 billion At the end of 2011 the country's GDP has lost 60 % compared with 2010. Reached a high level of inflation, as indicated by the increase in the money supply Libyan dinars more than doubled.
Was frozen a significant portion of the $150 billion belonging to Libya, in foreign accounts. According to chief research officer of the Institute of Oriental studies of RAS, doctor of historical Sciences Anatoly Egorin, the funds for the Libya actually lost. According to the same study, the direct destruction from the NATO bombing is estimated at $14 billion, 7 times higher than the damage caused to the country by German bombing during the Second world war, in comparable prices.
After completion of the main phase of the Libyan conflict, the country has become a source of weapons in many neighbouring countries, particularly in Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria, Egypt, Tunisia and some others.
Sergei Lavrov, in General, described the consequences of the conflict and external interference in his country: "Those who have abused the mandate of the UN security Council, broke the army of Gaddafi, incidentally killed dozens of civilians, have left in the end is something that cannot be called statehood".
The revolution in Libya is really the main significant event for the world. Over the last few years quite stable, quite successful and, importantly, one of the most democratic countries in Africa was destroyed by a direct intervention in violation of UN resolutions. The leader of this country was destroyed in the most brutal way. He was tortured for several hours. Moreover, in the capture of Gaddafi's direct role was played by Western intelligence agencies. And the arc of instability spreading further through Tunisia and Egypt, and so on, finally, finally closed in North Africa and went directly to Syria, where now continuing the negative trends. The fact of the complete destruction of the concept of a sovereign state in the modern world is obvious.
As for Russia, she was lucky at least that it is less connected with the near and Middle East. But Russia has its own threats. It's the threat of the rising power of Turkey in the black sea and Iran in the Caspian sea. There is also a rise in terrorist infiltration and drug trafficking from Afghanistan, and the collapse and disintegration of Pakistan, with its nuclear weapons.
The main danger for Russia is an attempt to bring into the territory of our country near and middle Eastern conflicts. Information that in one of the incidents during fighting in Yemen was part of the so-called Bashkir students, is alarming. It is, simply speaking, illegals, who studied in a local Sunni madrasa and received military training as part of the ongoing battles there between the tribes. Return to Russian territory these people from the Egyptian al-Azhar, from Kairouan, Tunisia, from exile from all countries of the Arab and Islamic world in General is dangerous for our country. The more that they are trying to energize local leaders, trying to build a political future on the promotion of political Islam.
The events in the Middle East help us to understand that sovereignty be respected in principle. And as you can do with Libya - not the smallest state, having in principle a good army, then similarly you can do with any other state. Yet with Russia, because we have absolute sovereignty in the form of atomic weapons. But with our neighbours is already trying to do. One has only to recall the events in Ukraine.
"Democracy" in countries where not so long ago, happened colored or colorless revolution is in full swing. I would say more, she goes at the same speed that once went to Europe after the overthrow of the dynasties between the world wars. In Europe, in the end, it ended the genocide, the Holocaust and the Second world war. But the main lesson history, said at the time, Winston Churchill, is that nobody ever learns any lessons.
Ilyin V. A.
- Egorin A. Unknown Gaddafi, brotherly leader. 2011. S. 156
- M. Podkopayeva Arab spring: the terror against the clergy
Available at: http://gazeta.eot.su/article/arabskaya-vesna-terror-protiv-duhovenstva
- A. podtserob Libya six months later
Available at: http://oko-planet.su/politik/politiklist/111674-liviya-polgoda-spustya.html
- S. Filatov Mess in the Sahel.
Available at: http://interaffairs.ru/read.php?item=8708
- National Geographic, May 2010, and Libya turns on the Great Man-Made River, by Marcia Merry, Printed in the Executive Intelligence Review, September 1991
Tags: assessment , geopolitics , Libya , A.Snesariev's competition , Near East