In Russian-Ukrainian relations have entered a new phase. The stage, which can rather be characterized as a confrontation between the two States. What was the cause of this conflict?
In the first place, it is understood that since the Second world war the world has not experienced major territorial redistribution. The bipolar system, the stability which was supposed to be two opposing sides and their allies, fell with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Instead of it, the world has transformed into unipolar, in which the main role is played by the USA. And the main instrument of U.S. power is NATO. Despite the fact that the ideological opponent of the USSR was defeated, the unit did not stop its existence, and continued foreign policy will of the United States.
If you examine many modern conflicts, then they can notice the obvious presence of US, who initiate, sponsor and govern the most common destructive processes. Such activity is a result of the threat of losing global domination. Take for example the Georgian-Russian crisis, the "Arab spring", and, of course, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. A big gap in the welfare of the population, historical background and inter-ethnic differences - ethnic and religious grounds, let, maneuvering between these factors, to achieve emerging conflict situations. The country in whose territory those sorts of events are not able to hold the vector of attention on the foreign policy aspects, and forced to concentrate on keeping the control and stabilization of the situation inside the country. And what is rapidly unwound the spiral of the conflict, the more difficult the current government to retain power in their hands. Thus it is possible for a painless promotion of his political protégé the initiator of the conflict. As a result, we are seeing a situation that can be described as "political looting", because it is similar to the capture of oil and gas reserves, water reserves and other resources.
If you try to describe the domestic policy of USA, it can be defined as "totalitarian democracy". There is a total control of all spheres of life of the American intelligence services. This particular distribute of the trend with the development of Internet technologies. The police have more powers, coupled with stronger weapons. The electoral system in the U.S. is fairly closed, and not allowed foreign observers, which leaves additional opportunities for political maneuver. And the U.S. electoral College system leaves a lot of questions, because repeatedly there were cases when the opinion of ordinary voters disagreed with the opinion of the electors.
Naturally, implementing this policy within their country and the US exports provide a clean idea of fascism, namely: nationalism, militarism, traditionalism, and more recently hidden antiliberalism and anticommunism, populism and extreme forms of extremism. Fragments of this ideology are easily put into the heads of illiterate population through propaganda. At the same time, because of globalization, more and more countries are faced with the conflicts among different nationalities within the state, which only adds extra appeal externally imposed ideology. If time does not take measures against the imposition of alien and even hostile to the idea, denigrating and belittling the historical merits of the state, the discrediting of the elites and allies, the destruction of the norms and principles of society, and subsequently the economic structure of the state, will make any state obedient puppet.
The gradual seizure of power is happening on several fronts. First, indoctrination of a new generation. If you look closely at the latest color revolution, it becomes clear that young people are their main driving force. Secondly, there is the attack of dirt, and the planting of disinformation, the purpose of which is disadvantageous denigrating politicians and following it loss to it of trust from the population. Gradually the political arena is seeing, trained individuals. Third, these politicians start to promise "economic miracle", such as the growing prosperity and the adoption in the EU. Fourthly, the promise of the introduction of this country into progressive and cultural "elite world" where honor's liberal and democratic values. Through the media and social networks to organize mass demonstrations, rallies, meetings, etc., during which there are provocations, which trigger the beginning of the revolution, which the leaders of the opposition movement will be persistently called a revolution. Later, when the power is fully or partially will pass into the hands of new leaders who will start more active propagation of ideas of fascism and cultivation of an image of an internal or external enemy to completely distract the citizens of the state from the occurring change of power.
The situation taking place in Ukraine, should be viewed as a coup using political technology, as a color revolution. It is also worth noting that in no event it is impossible to characterize local change of power as a revolution. Revolution means a radical transformation of the entire Ukrainian political, economic, and social system changes in all spheres of society. But, in fact, no changes have occurred even in the political system, just there was a change of the ruling elites. In other words, these events are nothing more than a coup.
After the color revolutions, the economy is in ruins, the political system is in collapse. In such situation any democratic mode of speech can not go, because immediate action is needed to revive the economy. For the rescue at this point on the first role to get the leader - or party-a dictator who will rule the country and the democratic categorically without delay. But, after these revolutions, all authority is the leader acceptable to the organizer. Thus, a state that until recently was independent, she becomes fully dependent on the political will of the other party and becomes yet another puppet and market.
So what are the goals pursued by the U.S. and which was destabilized the situation in Ukraine?
The main goal of USA was to promote the Alliance of NATO to our borders and the deployment of NATO bases in Crimea. In fact, for Russia it would mean the loss of the Black sea and the loss of the war before it began. So comfortable and an important strategic point would allow the US to impose its political will. Ie it would mean the end of independent Russia with its doctrine of sovereign democracy and dreams of a multipolar world.
The second objective is to weaken Russia by destabilizing the situation inside the country. The loss of Ukraine as a friendly state, negatively perceived part of the population, together with the placement of NATO military bases would likely have resulted to a change of government constitutional or unconstitutional means. This step can be considered as a preparation stage of a color revolution. In light of these developments we should not forget about the attempt to organize a coup in Moscow may 6, 2012.
The third objective is economic. A feature of the current U.S. economy is the development of the majority of firms and companies through loans and credits. Therefore, if the dynamics of growth of the economy for a while stopped, it will lead to the collapse of the financial system of the whole country, and, maybe, and systems around the world. To avoid stagnation of the economy affecting the entire world system that stems support the US and the EU, and their allies in the NATO bloc. In the context of the new market and considers Russia and Ukraine.
The fourth objective is the elimination of the friendly and allied relations with Ukraine and the subsequent encirclement of our country by NATO, by the destruction of the buffer and the Union state.
The first goal was not achieved, because the Crimea became part of Russia through referendum. The fourth is almost fully implemented and only suspended the conduct of the Russian Federation does not allow to cross the point of no return. It forces US to concentrate on achieving the second and third goals. One of the tools are designed to be economic and political sanctions against Russia. It was planned that sanctions would hurt the well-being of the population and cause public unrest, which can be used as in the situation with the "Ukrainian Maidan".
In relation to the EU, this point of instability as Ukraine is also very profitable only for U.S. interests but disadvantageous to Europe. Began the process of cooling relations between Russia and the European countries, and the processes clearly slow down the growth of the EU economy. This is one of the goals pursued by the US for as long as possible to remain a state hegemon.
You should understand that Ukraine is situated almost in the centre of Europe and borders Russia, and served in the right perspective the idea of the aggression of the Russian Federation will once again revive the raison d'être of NATO. But any movement of Europe on Ukraine will meet a negative reaction on our part, Russia considers the territory its area of influence and the process of rapprochement, which has recently emerged between Russia and Europe will be suspended, if not thrown back.
The situation in Ukraine will only get worse. The population is rapidly growing poor, the dollar against the hryvnia is growing by leaps and bounds, of real money in the Treasury was nearly empty, unclear situation with gas, the division and polarization of society, a huge migration of the working population, including in Russia; and the real threat of a default is something that will face Ukraine in the near future.
The Ukrainian situation could not but affect Russia. In our country there is a small split in the society, albeit in small scale, but still there are people who directly or indirectly are considered to be intellectuals or political elites, and which do not support the annexation of Crimea. Ukrainian topic is so controversial that many people simply try to avoid it in its discussions. One of the serious consequences - sanctions. Due to the imposition of U.S. sanctions has a chance to conquer new markets. Sanctions applied against Russia beat on the industries in which we either compete with the USA (manufacture of weapons), or in those areas in which we will compete fiercely in the future (Arctic shelf). The mastery of the shelf is now much more difficult for us, because now we don't supply specialists, technology and equipment for deepwater drilling and our technology at this stage does not allow us to do it ourselves. Another disadvantage is the huge number of refugees, according to unofficial estimates, over a million people crossed the border. It is understood that few of them have registered in a new capacity, as may still hope to return. Provide the refugee with all necessary requires additional funds from the budget. Amid sanctions and falling oil prices rose, the dollar and the Euro against the ruble. This could not affect the prices of imported goods and impact on the population and on the level of his concern.
Most likely, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will only gain strength, more contradictions will arise not only between the two States, but even within the Ukrainian state. The civil war that has engulfed this country, will appear on the Russian Federation and the loss of the militia in this conflict may lead to more negative consequences, as thousands of armed and past the soldiers will blame Russia in defeat. Modern Kiev authorities repeatedly threatened war on Russia, so it is not excluded the possibility of application received during fighting skills against us.
It should be noted that in addition to the negative consequences, there are also positive sides. Kontrsanktsii Russia will help us to revive and develop our agriculture, due to the embargo on imports of European and American food products that will improve the food security of the Russian Federation. In the country there is an incredible moral and Patriotic enthusiasm , acceptance and approval of national policies that have a positive impact on the internal climate of the country. This means that the possibility of a repetition of Arab and Kiev scenario in Moscow is reduced. It is also worth noting that most refugees were able-bodied population, which will help to close the lack of staff.
Do not forget about the Crimea so important to the national security strategic point, which became part of the Russian Federation. Together with the Crimea part of the Russian Federation includes about 2 million citizens, which is especially important in light of demographic decline, what is happening in our country the last decades.
For an independent and sustainable political position of Russia should strengthen relations with its neighbours, to pursue a new policy towards the CIS countries, South American countries and countries of the Asia-Pacific region. In order not to become dependent on fast-growing China needs to normalize its relations with Europe, regardless of their sanctions policy.
To prevent encirclement by NATO, in the near future need to improve relations with Ukraine, despite the fact that these relations will return back on track. We strategically disadvantageous for Ukraine to become a NATO member. Ukraine, as before, must be the buffer, the Federal government.
Even now we have enough resources to support other States to break the global hegemony of the United States, and finally to create a multipolar world in which our power will play a key role. We can normalize relations, and further to translate them into the mainstream allied with all our state partners. Only in this case, the world will come relative calm, and the new Russia in the new world can become a guarantor of the safety and security of all mankind.
Rinks K. D.
- Mazurov V. I., "Fascism as a form of totalitarianism" // Public Sciences and modernity. — 1993. — No. 5
Tags: Russia , USA , geopolitics , A.Snesariev's competition , Ukraina