Raising the key rate to 17% Bank of Russia provoked the crisis situation in the interbank ruble market, where rates reached 30% per annum. Banks do not want to part with the currency, preferring to take on expensive short term. This keeps the ruble, but it has to pay for the banking crisis.
Banks have virtually ceased to lend to each other. The Russian presidential aide Andrei Belousov said on Friday that "the market in the interbank market has practically stopped and it was completely expected, when the key rate to 17% no one has suggested some other developments" (quote by Primo). He also stressed that the main problem is liquidity, and it is now actively addressing the Central Bank. "It is important that this situation with the restriction of liquidity turned into a crisis of ruble liquidity", – transfers words Belousova Agency.
MosPrime rate, characterizing the state of the interbank lending market, jumped to 27.3%. For comparison -17 December it stood at 19,83%, last week -11,85%. Friday MosPrime decreased slightly, to 25%.
Volumes on the interbank market started to fall since the beginning of the week, says the head of the Moscow International currency Association Alexei Mamontov. "As soon as the Central Bank raised the supply of liquidity from banks fell for the sixth time," he said. Mammoths have calculated that on Friday, the players signed deals only 2-3 billion rubles., while before the crisis the average daily market turnover was at the level of 50 billion rubles Treasurer one medium RBC Bank complained that on the market the supply of money. "The picture we see for several days. The market's crashing," says the interlocutor of RBC.
Up to 30% per annum
The interbank market collapsed, banks closed on each other limits, take the rubles on one of below 30%, for banks of the second and third round they are even more expensive, writes in his evening comments analyst investment Department of VTB24 Aleksei Mikheev.
Deputy General Director of managing company "Pallada asset Management" Alexander Baranov said that big banks are attracted in rubles legal entities for 2-3 months at rates of 25-30% per annum.
"Sberbank 19 December began calling corporate clients and to invite them to open their deposits as high as 30%", –told RBC a top Manager of one of the major banks that are among the 20 largest, learned about it from his client. "Sberbank is actually ruining the market. We can't move the rates from 10% to 30% without any problems. If we do not restrict Sberbank, which acts as a monopolist, it can turn into a disaster for all market participants", – noted the banker.
In the letter the Bank sent to corporate clients (RBC) the Bank offers to open a Deposit "new year" for a period of one month to one year. The largest rate the Bank offers for a period of 3 months – 26,52% annual for the sums from 500 thousand to 10 million rubles, 27,15% for amounts from 10 million to 30 million rubles and 28,08% for amounts from 30 million to 100 million rubles.
It is possible to take cheaper the Bank of Russia, which on Friday issued banks 487.7 billion rubles in three-day REPO auction at the rate of 17,12%. But the Bank is issuing secured securities, which the banks already there, says Mikheev from VTB24. "At today's ruble auction offered 540 billion rubles with the rate cut-off 17%, but the banks took only 487 billion rubles at a very low weighted-average interest rate to 17.12 per cent," he describes the situation, noting that those who participated in the auction, knew the competitors out there.
A very different situation prevailed in the auction for placement of the Deposit of the Federal Treasury, proposed 150 billion rubles for 10 days. Applications for participation in auction have submitted six banks, but all funds went to one of them at a rate of 38.3 per cent per annum. Two of the interlocutor of RBC in the state-owned banks said that this borrower could be the savings Bank. The press service of Sberbank refused to comment.
The day before the Treasury was placed 150 billion roubles in one week, and the entire amount also went to one Bank who offered 29%. Market participants say that on Thursday all money from the market took the Sberbank, which led to growth rates.
Treasury money at a 38.3% annual interest could be demanded from the banks, which faced a severe liquidity outflows, says chief economist for Russia and CIS Oleg Kuzmin. He said that indeed there is an increase in the volume of cash in circulation – on Thursday, the volume of cash increased by 210 billion rubles, typically for this period of the year characterized by an increase to 60-70 billion rubles "Depositors withdraw deposits and purchase goods," says Kuzmin.
Analyst "Discovery broker" Andrei Kochetkov considers that this rate is justified either by hyperinflation or if finally lost confidence in banks. "It is possible that large banks accumulate rouble liquidity in anticipation of future tax payments, while not wanting to spend the currency reserves", – he suggested.
The ruble kept
Due to the shortage of rubles, the Russian currency keeps on a mark of 59, says Mikheev. He is confident that the ruble will continue to grow and will reach 50 to 55 rubles per dollar.
The Central Bank is doing the right thing, forcing banks and their clients to sell currency by limiting ruble liquidity and rigidly controlling high rate on the rubles, says Baranov of the criminal code "Pallada asset Management".
Big banks have lots of currency that they don't sell, creating a shortage in the market, and the Central Bank forces them to sell, Baranov says: "Major banks are willing to refinance in a week or two at the high rate in rubles, foreign currency and not to sell. The question which the first will not withstand the nerves".
Limit ruble liquidity came out with a Bang, but the flip side of the coin was the situation that, in fact, should be called the banking crisis, albeit artificially created, says Mikheev.
Bankers fear that the rapid growth rates in the markets of interbank lending and repos can lead to mass default of obligations by the parties. "It's no secret that small banks, counterparties which are Sberbank, VTB and other large financial organizations, has built a pyramid on the interest rates of perekreditovanija each other", – said a top Manager of one of the investment banks.
Mikheev says that the majority of banks all of this will not suffer thanks to quickly taken by the government measures, namely the decision to recapitalise the banking system in trillion roubles and increased the insured Deposit amount to 1.4 million rubles.
Albert Koshkarev, Elena Tofanyuk, Tatiana Aleshkina, Natalia Starostina
Tags: Russia , crisis , finances