The resumption by Kiev of the hostilities in the Donbas can lead to unpredictable political consequences in case if the Armed forces of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics will be able to succeed. Loss of Mariupol and Debaltsevo, and the output forces of Novorossiya to the administrative borders of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, threatens to bring about a decline of the current Kyiv authorities.
That the truce formally concluded on 5 September 2014 in Minsk between Kiev, on the one hand, and the authorities DNR and LC — on the other, will not last long, has already been discussed. The Minsk agreement did not suit Kyiv: using a break to replenish losses in the summer fighting, the Ukrainian government faced increasing political pressure. Heated propaganda, including from the highest bleachers, the society has clamored for a visible results in the fight against "separatists". The same struggle could be written off and growing economic problems.
The Minsk agreement did not suit the Donetsk and Luhansk: continuing regular artillery shelling of cities, and periodic clashes of small units did the lives of the majority of the population is unbearable, and so the problem at least to push the Ukrainian artillery from the borders of cities has become a matter of survival.
By and large, at the time of their detention they could put Moscow at the time, perhaps even experiencing illusions on the subject not so much the negotiability of Kiev, many chances to make a good impression on the West and return to a normal dialogue with the U.S. and the EU.
Any to bring closer the positions did not, and the question, essentially, was the date of resumption of fighting. This date fell on the end of the "holiday of the decade". Energize as already mentioned the domestic political factors and external circumstances — a breakdown scheduled for January 15 meeting in Astana and hope to catch DPR and LPR in "dismantled" condition on the backdrop of the contradictions in their military leadership, Kiev made the first move. The shelling of Donetsk were intensified, in some places began the attack of the APU with armored vehicles.
If you unjustly accuse, return and earn
For Moscow "the hour "W"" struck around the same time. The lack of any progress in negotiations with the West on the background of statements about the immutability of the sanctions regime until then, until it is returned to the Crimea (which in the circumstances be read as a requirement to put squeezed toothpaste back in the tube), and the martial fanfares from Kiev prompted the Russian leadership to recognize the death of the Minsk agreements and to accept as a given the resumption of hostilities, placing the responsibility on Kyiv.
Internal factor played a role here: we know from history that the Russian people can forgive the government and economic problems, and military defeat, but the simultaneous combination of these two factors often mean serious problems, and the war in Eastern Ukraine is perceived as "own" very many.
Against this background, the support of the republics of Novorossiya was perfectly logical and perhaps even pragmatic step: create problems greater than those that already exist, it could not, and success has increased the chances to reach Kiev, persuading, finally, the government of Ukraine in the impossibility of a military victory over DPR and LPR.
Novorossiya military objectives in the renewed campaign was outlined by the head of the DND Alexander Zakharchenko, reported the intention of stepping up to the administrative borders of Donetsk region. "We will attack to the borders of Donetsk region, but if I see a threat and with other parties, will be eliminated," said Zakharchenko on January 23, 2015 in connection with swietomarcinski the success of the army DND in the battles for the Donetsk airport and the advancement in other areas.
Talk about fast attack is not necessary: winter in the East of Ukraine actually prohibits conduct operations off-road, and moving on roads, the army inevitably meets resistance and has to be hacked. However, known problems with mobilization, and lack of equipment led to the loss of Ukraine because it is located in the summer of superiority in forces over the then militia.
In these conditions a disaster can be any event — the fall of Mariupol in the South, the formation of the boiler in the area debaltseve, a break front and moving into Northern direction. Sharp frustration with the aggressive rhetoric of the excited crowd for a quick victory, coupled with the presence of a large number of radicals, had already managed to acquire combat experience against the clans and create a great breeding ground for a new Maidan.
In these conditions, the chance for Kiev, obviously pareizticigo our military capabilities once again becoming outside intervention in the face of the EU and the US. The reason for such interference must be substantial, and obviously, for this role will try to assign the Mariupol.
Mariupol: there are more questions than answers
The shelling of Mariupol from multiple rocket launcher systems fire on the morning of 24 January that resulted in casualties among the civilian population, apparently, will be included in the number of events, a single version which will not be built ever.
In the morning the testimony of local residents from a variety of sources was to ensure that the fire was coming from the West and North-West directions, i.e., from the positions of the APU at the airport of Mariupol and the village of Old Crimea. Later, after lunch, there was evidence of rockets fired from the East, which was automatically assigned to the artillery of DND.
Who is guilty in happened — should show the effect, but as of "right now" obviously, the details very few people are interested outside of Donbass. Made hot pursuit a few hours later after the bombing of the Commission report of the OSCE clearly calls DND responsible for the incident, claiming that the tragedy was caused by the flights during the shelling of the Ukrainian checkpoint.
Despite the apparent haste of the conducted investigation, this version immediately became dominant not only in Kiev (which is logical), but in Washington and Brussels, where he immediately started talking about the need for tighter sanctions and prospects of deterioration of relations with Moscow.
It is obvious that Kiev will try to use the tragedy in Mariupol as well as the recent shelling of the bus in Volnovakha, or the catastrophe of Malaysian Boeing. Of course, the death of people under artillery fire is a tragedy. The only issue is the selective attention of those who immediately responded to the incident in Mariupol, ignoring almost half a year of bombardments of Donetsk, Lugansk and other cities of Novorossia.
The main conclusion from the events is that promises to take the artillery, most likely, will never hear nor in Donetsk, nor in Lugansk, nor in Moscow. The only tangible guarantee of the absence of attacks is, at least, physical destruction or displacement of groups of armed forces at sufficient distance from major cities. The effects should be aware of any of the parties: in the heart of Europe continues to flare up the war with an increased risk of breakdown of the region into chaos.
Tags: war , Ukraina