Whether but so it? More precisely, whether it is possible to be saved of it? My answer to this question unequivocally negative. And that is why.
On "ISIS", I specially take the name of this formation - the states, the organisations, groups (as though it defined) - in inverted commas as it is faster not structure, and process, it is possible to influence and limit at the best in time and space, but not to destroy in any way.
It is possible to name this process conditionally the end of the postcolonial Near East which borders, with rare exception, it is possible to consider it is artificial the drawn European countries. The last after disintegration of Ottoman empire have started to own region, and having left it have left as the inheritance as the borders of the countries as a rule coinciding with borders of colonies, and the modes which have appeared in them.
The last, be they populist, socialist or democratic, copied and copy colonial (pivotal of which attributes the power of minority over the majority, secular character of the state institutes and opiranie on force of a bayonet - national armed forces were and are) institutes.
In life of societies of region with finding of independence a little that has changed, character of most already national power also has changed slightly. Thomas Malkolma Maggeridzh in the «Chronicles of ruined time» writes one of the largest British journalists of 20th century about almost similar javljaenie to India:
«And nevertheless it is absurdity - to believe that replacement of foreign board with the national is obviously salutary that in the moral relation is more defensible, when instead of the pompous colonial governor in a hat with a feather the country so pompous Zhomo Kenjatta with a fan starts to correct or instead of white gangsters to the power gangsters black» come.
I at all do not characterise existing modes as gangster. Their unit - from the point of view of terms and values of the European Education - progressive enough: secular, bourgeois and bjurokratizirovannaja.
However how much it "is natural" to local population which lived centuries in Halifate, was and remains religious and has got used to solve the questions not in offices of army of officials, and behind a cup of a traditional drink or by means of the mullah whom cause for «fair court»? However many spoke about a manipulation of weights, but revolt against modes in Libya, Egypt and Syria was so fast and spontaneous that it is necessary to search for their reasons in process "nature", instead of in an orientation from any centres of force.
And consequently all absurdity or if want, an inefficiency of struggle of Russia or the USA against "IGIL" consists that Islamites offer societies of the Near East more "natural" model of management, than modes which Russia and the USA try to rescue. It is possible to destroy, of course, army of the Islamic state, to destroy by bombing terrorists, but it will solve a problem only in short-term, and at the best - in intermediate term prospect. Real historical prospect of region - disappearance of the secular militarised modes, chaos and occurrence new - based on Islam and traditional model - an order.
This process, in my opinion, with the advent of the Islamic state only has begun and with its liquidation will not be completed. It will be long and bloody and the Russian and American winners in it will not be exact.
Tags: assessment , Syria , Near East , Iraq