Hard and zaputanno
Situation in a country today very heavy: millions refugees are both in the Syria, and in many next and not so the countries. But if the refugees who have left from "tyrant" of Bashara Asada, became "a hot" theme in mass-media the same refugees hiding from terror of armed "opposition" in territories, governmental forces under control to army, objects of so steadfast attention of mass-media and various human rights organisations are not. Thus, only in one Latakia now are hundred thousand such fugitives. Economy of Syria in deep crisis: at a course of local currency in 320 lyres for one dollar, average salaries make 20-30 thousand lyres.
Were lost already ten thousand people, and the army has lost half of staff. War is conducted everywhere and not only between supporters of the president and various "oppositional" groupings, but also between these groupings. The so-called Free Syrian army («Al-Dzhajsh the expert-suri al-hurr») is actually created by special services of Turkey in refugee camps in the territories and a great influence on a situation on district does not render, leaning in bolshej to a measure against forces of "Front of support of the population of Great Syria» (whether-ahl «Dzhabha an-nusra ash-Sham») or "An-Nusru" is simple.
Last controls regions in territory of Syria only thanks to presence of exits on border with the foreign states. The main support of "An-Nusry" in Syria which is based in provinces of Idlib and Northern Latakia with reference points in the cities of Tamana, Latamni, Hodzhehun, Idlib, Arieha, Artun Neman, Dzhisr-al-Shuhur, is supplied with the weapon, ammunition and staff from camps on border with Turkey. And the city of Salma that in 40 kilometres from Latakia, in general is kept by grouping actually from Turkish territory, whence from the moment of settlement capture anti-aircraft cover Turkish ZRK the big range "Patriot" (manufacture of the USA) comes true.
Operations in Aleppo since 2013 are conducted in interests of Turkey, aspiring to grasp this frontier city. Only thanks to its such support of opposition it was possible to grasp half of city and many roundabout villages. Also from Turkish territory capture has been carried out has sat down in frontier seaside area in 25 kilometres from Latakia. "An-Nusry" being under control regions are kept in areas of Dejry and Kunejtry by it thanks to reception of the military help from frontier to this region of territories of Jordan and Golan heights controlled by Israel.
At the same time "An-Nusra" is in hostile relations with the second key force of region - «the Islamic state of Great Syria and Iraq» («the Hell-daulja al-islamijja fi-biljad Ash-Sham va-l-Irak»), nowadays named «the Islamic State of Iraq and Esh-Shama». The reasons of this conflict first of all the ideological.
With a beginning of war in Syria the armed movement which has arisen in Iraq salafitov has undergone the further ideological transformation. On a site of Institute of the Near East article Russian islamoveda, Doctors of Philosophy, a member of Public chamber of the Russian Federation of Alexander Ignatenko «Al-Kaidovsky ulemy» is published. In it he mentions works of teacher Osama bin Laden, "imam-shahid" of Abdally Azzama (1941-1989), including its book «In the shadow of sury At-Tauba». These products began to replace partly the Koran to participants of movement salafitov. Though Azzam (the agriculturist by training) was pupil Sajida Kutba, its religious authority was not so great during lifetime, and doctrine domination is provided by that its supporters were successful in the field of battle.
Here that Ignatenko about works of Azzama writes: «… its Main product is broshjurka two ten pages« Protection of the earths of Moslems as the main religious duty of each Moslem ». The brochure is published set of times in a paper and electronic kind. Including - in English translation.
… the Basic idea, cogitable any Mojahed without formation, consists that a duty of each Moslem is to conduct jihad for clearing of "the earths of Moslems». That list which results Azzam is interesting. «The Earth Moslems» in representation of Azzama it is Bukhara (so Azzam names the Central Asia), Palestin, Aden (so Azzam names Yemen), Andalusia (Spain), Eritrea, Bulgaria, Sudan, Lebanon, Somalia, Burma, Kavkazija (so Azzam names the North Caucasus and Transcaucasia), Uganda, Chad, Zanzibar, Indonesia, Nigeria - all those earths which, according to Abdally Azzama, were the earths of Moslems, but have ceased to be them (the list it is resulted also in other product of Azzama - Basha ` ir an-nasr - victory Presages).
In this transfer there is one moment which not at once is evident: if somehow it is possible to explain presence in this list of Palestin, Bulgaria and Lebanon surprises presence of such countries, as Yemen, Indonesia, etc. Here "bomb" which will blow up the Arabian world is put, will cast it in incessant islamsko-Islamic (that important, not habitual century sunnitsko-Shiit, and sunnitsko-sunnitskuju) civil war which now goes in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Libya and further under the list - everywhere where is al-kaidovtsy, acting under different names. Deification of this war on mutual destruction - the battles going now (2014) in Syria between two "Al-Kaidami" - «Dzhabhat an-nusra» and «the Islamic state of Iraq and Esh-Shama».
"Bomb" is use salafitskih categories "verootstupnichestvo" and "hypocrisy" concerning Moslems, at that point in time - Afghani which were at war against the Arabian forwarding case under a banner of Democratic Republic Afghanistan. Charge of the Moslem in "verootstupnichestve" and "hypocrisy" does its "blood" (life) "resolved" from the point of view of Sheriyat, i.e. supposes and recommends its murder, and the duty of each Moslem appears to conduct jihad against "apostates" and "hypocrites".
Since the moment of creation of the first oppositional armed group of Free Syrian Army (Al-Dzhajsh the expert-suri al-Hurr) from home guards sunnitskih the Arabian tribes, deserters from the Arabian Syrian Army and foreign volunteers, the unit of its subdivisions was controlled by Syrian "Brothers-Moslems".
Still year before Ignatenko, describing in article «Cooperation and a competition of" Al-Kaid »in Syria. 2013» war in Syria, has noticed existence of two "Al-Kaid" - one old, «the Front of support of the population of Great Syria» (whether-ahl «Dzhabha an-nusra ash-Sham») or, better to say, "An-Nusra", and new in the name of the organisation «the Islamic state of Great Syria and Iraq» («the Hell-daulja al-islamijja fi-biljad Ash-Sham va-l-Irak»), nowadays known as YOKES was whose skeleton.
Last was born in many respects thanks to the Jordanian of the Palestinian origin of Abu-Musab az-Zarkaui - the head of grouping «Edinobozhie and Jihad» («At-Tauhid va-l-jihad»), transformed in «al Kaide in the Country of two Great Rivers» («al Kaide fi-Biljad ar-Rafidajn»). Zarkavi which has been killed on June, 7th 2006 in Iraq, has entered into wide practice cutting of goals of people by way nahr - as cut rams, having made of it the religious certificate as ritual of punishment of all incorrect.
The shots prepared in bloody war which was conducted «by al Kaide in the Country of two Great Rivers» as against «coalition troops» under the American command, and against state structures of Iraq and various Shiit armed groups, and have laid down in a basis of YOKES.
Members of YOKES, having put in the east of Syria extensive regions with oil deposits, with the centre in the city of Ayr-Rakki, then have developed approach in Iraq where local Arabian tribes sunnitov felt deceived by the power of Iraq which was in hands of the Iraq Shiits. Preparing ten years the American military advisers the army of Iraq practically has collapsed, and huge stocks of arms and ammunition have got to hands of YOKES.
After successful capture so-called «sunnitskogo a triangle» (Ramada, and Faludzha) forces of YOKES have approached Bakuba closely to the city of Abu of Garib, representing themselves, as a matter of fact, suburb of Bagdad.
Falling of Bagdad in such conditions became a matter of time only for a short while delayed by input of armed forces of Iran, developed approach to YOKES together with army of Iraq and Kurdish formations "peshmerga".
It is obvious that the USA have made everything to prevent falling of Bagdad, and it is obvious that the collisions which have begun in 2013-2014 of YOKES and "An Nusry" when insurgents of YOKES even spread a photo of the goals of insurgents of "An-Nusry" cut off by them, have been in many respects caused by efforts of special services of the USA. As "An-Nusra" was "al Kaide" unit collisions between two old and new its currents have extended and on other countries, in particular Libya and Afghanistan.
Therefore the war conducted between these two organisations in Syria, is not collision of two gangs, and a consequence of the deep ideological split, based that YOKES is completely attached to ideology of Azzama and Osama bin Laden's its pupils and Al-Zarkavi, de facto they put whose opinion over all Islamic divinity, including over the Koran whereas the front "An-Nusra" continues to keep traditions old salafizma 80-90th years.
Who is stronger, that and the rights
In Islam the success in the field of battle traditionally is last argument in theological disputes, and the success of YOKES in Iraq, as well as successful approach to army of Syria around Palmira, in many respects promotes growth of popularity of grouping in the ranks of armed opposition.
The opposition represents chaotic enough gathering of various armed groups and consequently it is heavy to command of the Syrian Free army and management "An-Nusry" to keep this or that group from transition in numbers of YOKES as in the organisation everything is all right with money, thanking and financial support from the outside, and oil sale. Besides it, declaration as the leader of YOKES of Abu-Bakra al-Husajni al-Kurashi al-Bagdadi halifata is the religious certificate which basically is obligatory for execution by all devout Moslems of the world.
The given circumstance represents itself the big danger to Bashara Asada for YOKES as has shown experiment of capture of the city of Rakka where local sunnitskie tribes have voluntarily sworn it on fidelity, possesses the big ability to conquer sympathy of local population, rather than other forces of armed opposition.
Now even on that unit of territory, which formally remains under army Asada control (by different estimations, it from third to half of territory of Syria), many villages sunnitskih the Arabian tribes are in regions out of control of the army keeping only cities. Besides, in a number from them sunnitskoe the population supports actions of armed opposition, and cases when insurgents of opposition in such cities suit attacks on the governmental forces are frequent.
Difficulties with structure
In army of the president the majority Shiits - alavity, which in tridtsatimillionnoj make Syria approximately 12 %. However, alavity have high fighting spirit and are adjusted to defend up to the end the coreligionist Asada though years of war and economy demolition should render on them influences. However, actions armed "salafitskoj" oppositions, it is universal exterminating and alavitov, and Christians, promote their rallying. Because of it internal contradictions alavitov, including interbreeding and interpatrimonial smooth out. However, from алавитов environment before war it was allocated separate religious groups murshidov, not so actively supporting actions by the Army, but it has no great influence.
Moslems - "druzy" basically also support Asada, despite split in the environment of Lebanese druzov on two opposite camps. A certain minus for fighting capability of army of Syria is that other "minority" to Syria, for example the Christians making about 10 % of percent of the population of Syria, or Shiits of other directions (to 3 %), do not represent considerable percent to armies. If orthodox completely support Asada Christians - "marronity" it is traditional svjazanny with "marronitami" Lebanon for which both Hafez Asad, and Bashar Asad were enemies. Catholics and Protestants aspire to leave Syria.
As to sunnitskih shots they are presented to armies of Syria or old command shots, or military men of various special divisions which back roads are not present, but they make an insignificant unit. The Palestinian refugees with the beginning have taken of "the Arabian spring» opposition actions, and they had been created such organisations, as «Islamic jihad». Thereby sunnitskaja the community of Syria making more of half of its population, practically to some extent left from under direct control of the state, except for seaside regions Tartusa and Latakia, as well as region of Damascus.
The dangerous answer
Actually army of Syria the active military help of Iran which has entered on territory of Syria special divisions "Кудс" (Niruje Kods) of the Case of guards of Islamic revolution rescues from defeat, and as involved in operations in territory of Syria of subdivision of Lebanese "Hezbollah" (Hizb the Allah - «Party of the Allah») thanks to which the border with Lebanon has been smoothed out from insurgents.
Iran sending to Asadu large supplies of the weapon and ammunition, and also financing in many respects actions by the Army of Syria, at present is the key ally of this country, and on fronts already there is a coalition of armed forces of Syria and Iran, as well as Kurdish subdivisions "peshmerga". Operations in Syria, as a matter of fact, represent an united front with operations in Iraq. And it is potentially possible that operations in Turkey the Workers' party of Kurdistan and in Yemen will be in due course theatres of the same war.
At the same time, it is necessary to consider that YOKES possesses high potential on attraction of new forces and means, and the scenario of unexpected approach in Iraq with capture of Bagdad and movement on the south to "the sacred" Shiit cities of Nadzhaf and Kerbala is quite possible. Such approach will weaken the Iranian military help of Syria and can cause falling of Aleppo and transition of area Boors under control of YOKES.
Uniform, but the small state
Certainly, at present the army of Syria possesses the superiority over the isolated enough opponent, first of all, in armour and artillery. However and armed groups of opposition have a significant amount of anti-tank means (for example, grenade launchers РПГ-7 (the USSR), М-79 (SFRJU), bezotkatki СПГ-9 (the USSR), PTRK "Baby" (the USSR) and «TOW» (the USA)), artilleries (for example, guns М46 (the USSR)), armour (tanks T-55 (the USSR), Т-72 (the USSR) and БМП-1 (the USSR)) and portable surface-to-air missile systems. In a number of regions, in particular in a province of Idlib, after the beginning of October approach of army of Syria reconciliation before at enmity groupings of YOKES, "An-Nusry", "Fataha" and «Islamic jihad» that has led to failure of approach of Syrians on Latmani and the big losses in their numbers (to 500 victims) is observed.
The Russian military intervention in war in Syria in practice has led to known crisis in operations, but only thanks to blows of the Russian aircraft on armed opposition. Thus escalating counteraction of the USA, to Great Britain and Turkey to actions Russian VKS can already lead to direct air battles between the Air Forces of these states and forces of Russia that should be reflected in its abilities on drawing of blows on ground targets.
However, at present more important role is represented by diplomatic pressure upon the Russian Federation so attempt to "agree" from the USA by the Minsk agreements and a redirection of efforts of Russia against YOKES is not has gone right.
In this case the Russian military intervention should depend on the purposes of Asada, and to it more important represents air strikes on the positions "An-Nusry", keeping key positions in the centre and in the north of Syria, rather than bombing of the YOKES, controlling mainly the east of Syria, for approach on which the governmental army simply does not have forces.
However in case of demolition of resistance of "An-Nusry" in Idlibe and Northern Latakia, as well as razblokirovanija Aleppo, can develop a situation when Basharu Asadu nevertheless will be possible to connect reliably seaside areas of Tartusa and Latakia to Damascus and to keep Syria as the uniform state, let and in the smaller sizes.
For the inquiry: Oleg Valetsky was born in 1968 in Ukraine. Participated in war operations on the Balkans: in Bosnia and Herzegovina (1993-1995), in Kosovo and Metohii (1999), in Macedonia (2001). After worked in the organisations which are engaged in demining of territories of the former Yugoslavia, Iraq and Afghanistan. The publicist and the writer shining military-historical, political-military and military-technical themes.
Tags: Iran , assessment , war , Syria