Does Ukraine have a future?
Material posted: Publication date: 01-11-2015
Prominent Russian geopolitics LG Ivashov right in his assertion that there is a conflict between the past and the future of mankind. The absence of ideology plays a key role. Without ideology begins to control the future of human history. All this is the reason for conflict among peoples, nations, religions, etc.

This statement and concerning the conflict within the limits of one state will be fair. In spite of the fact that at present media space, both in Russia, and in the world as a whole, the Syrian problem occupies, it is not necessary to forget and about the Ukrainian question.

On the one hand, the impression as if for last year the decision of the Ukrainian situation has not moved off dead centre is made, and even has on the contrary worsened. It, of course, first of all, concerns the Russian-Ukrainian relations which become worse hour from an hour. On the other hand, any attempts to resolve a situation nevertheless were undertaken.

The basic and, perhaps, the most important platform for situation settlement are meetings of "the Norman four», that is leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine. It is an interesting format from that point of view that it especially European, and, means, shows to that that internal problems of Europe dare to it. Last meeting passed on October, 2nd. On it have been laid hopes, as there was clear that the Ukrainian crisis was too tightened. Besides, Europe has faced this summer a problem of the Syrian refugees. Thus, many mass-media assumed, what exactly at this meeting will come a turning point. However expectations and a reality have appeared polar. Certainly, there were positive moments. For example, almost right after end of negotiations the president of Ukraine Peter Poroshenko has declared that since October, 3rd tap of arms in calibre less than 100 mm in Donbass will begin. Elections in Ukraine, LNR and DNR became [1] basic problem of negotiations. It in turn, is connected with Minsk-2. Realisation terms can be prolonged, and then the Ukrainian parliament can pass the law on local elections in some regions. [2]

Initially elections in Ukraine, LNR and DNR have been planned for October, 25th, on November, 1st and on October, 18th accordingly. It also has caused weight of discontent and disputes. Both parties (Ukrainian and the southeast) accuse each other of infringement of the Minsk arrangements. Nevertheless, European leaders of "the Norman four» (F.Olland and A.Merkel) insist on that the Southeast has refused elections during the given period. The French president believes that this step becomes important event in settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. [3] most important things now begin to go to Ukraine and the southeast towards each other then all process will move off dead centre.

As a whole, a situation in Ukraine at present completely not positive. As rather young, independent and positioning independent, it is the states has a number of problems. Coming back to L.G.Ivashov's words, it is possible to notice that Ukraine for the present lives past though and very much aspires in the future. It is necessary to search for the reasons in political culture.

Certainly, development of political culture in all states occurs differently. After disintegration of Soviet Union the bipolar system has disappeared. In political arena there were new actors in which number there was also Ukraine.

There are the certain factors forming political culture of this or that society.

The defining factor is geopolitical. Many geopolitics including those who can be carried to Russian school of geopolitics (D.M.Milyutin, V.I.Lamansky, Item P and Century P Semenovy-Tjan-Shanskie, I.A.Ilyin, etc.) recognise that the geopolitics directly is connected and even occurs from geography. In a case with Ukraine it can be tracked successfully.

The Ukrainian society had to adapt to new, rather inconvenient conditions. The ideology ceases to exist, there is a revision of values, the standard of living of the majority of citizens falls. Ukraine, having the communistic past, rises before a choice: the West (Европа+США) or the East (Россия+СНГ).

The reason for it lies basically in a geographical position of Ukraine. It is accepted to divide Ukraine into the West, the Center and the East. It is considered that the political culture of east region is more realistic and is pragmatic, aspires to a collectivism and etatizmu while the political culture of the western region is characterised by feeling of freedom as main value of the person and society, elitizmom and so forth [4] Center, it turns out, represents some connection of these two cultures.

The following factor of formation of political culture - historical experience. Besides in thanking (or because of) the geopolitical factor here besides there is an opposition of two systems: liberal (the personal initiative, property freedom and so forth) and it is patriarchal-traditional values (sobornost, obshchinnost, a collectivism and so forth). [5]

The main research assistant of sector of social philosophy of Institute of philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, V.G.Fedotova, analyzing events in the Ukrainian policy after disintegration of Soviet Union, results interesting comparison between formation of the Italian state and an Ukrainian. In Italy, supporter Madzini has told: «We have created Italy, and now we will create Italians». In Ukraine, in opinion, V.G.Fedotovoj, have decided to create Ukraine, but to clear it from neukraintsev. [6]

Thus, it becomes clear that the management all the same has chosen the western way of development. However, as it has appeared, was not so simply to transfer this model on the Ukrainian.

Activity of mass media is one more factor of formation of political culture. Mass-media act in a role of the agent of political socialisation. They forms opinions of weights, stereotypes and models of political behaviour. Modern position is characterised hardened by "information war». Many Ukrainian mass-media use the Antirussian rhetoric while activity of some Russian and foreign mass-media in Ukraine is rather limited.

The important factor of formation of political culture is work of political institutes. Defining among institutes the institute of the state, elections, presidencies, political parties, elite usually are.

Influence of the basic political institutes of Ukraine on formation of political culture of citizens:

In a case with Ukraine there is a desire to put a sign «=» between institute of the state and presidency institute. Though from the point of view of the basic Ukrainian law it will be not absolutely true. According to the constitution of Ukraine [7], the state is republic of the mixed type (namely, parlamentsko-presidential). Besides other problems, Ukraine long time could not be defined with a power vector, having at itself rather a brief experience of statehood and struggle between representatives of political elite.

Thus, Ukraine has passed a thorny road, trying to choose, who will prevail: executive and legislature.

Буфер обмена-1.jpg

As appears from the scheme, the institute of presidency throughout many years played far not last role. Now the president of Ukraine Peter Poroshenko also is actively involved in political life of the state, therefore it is represented logical to declare such model concerning Ukraine:« государство=президент ». However, despite vigorous activity of the Ukrainian president, its many actions are estimated by many analysts extremely negatively. So for example, the Center of scientific political thought and ideology had been offered a reconstruction technique professionalnosti the first person of the state, proceeding from its motivational portrait. Levels of motivations were estimated by experts proceeding from a public image, and also from the facts and results of activity. Have not avoided in this research and Peter Poroshenko. Following the results of research, the presidential index of Ukraine has appeared one of the worst. Experts have considered that mister Poroshenko moves desire to realise clan (the and an inner circle) interests, and also to provide physical safety to itself and the family. Execution of such points as «to generate the professional, patriotic and not corrupted command» and «to pass laws corresponding to national interests» does not enter into its interests. [8]

As to institute of elections at present it is considered one of the most significant tools of influence of usual citizens on a policy. It is possible to look at an appearance of voters in 2014 during presidential elections. [9] western regions more active, and the further on the East, the are less than activity.

Буфер обмена-2.jpg

However the elections which have passed on October, 25th, 2015 have brightly illustrated contradictions between the party in power («Peter Poroshenko's Block» + "Popular front") and opposition. The party in power has lost considerably in support. In the western regions radical nationalists ("Freedom" and "Fennel"), in the east - «the Oppositional block» have acted, etc. In many regions should pass the second round. It shows, how regions are dissatisfied with authorities in power, and are ready to rely on opposition.

The political elite as political institute also is of interest. For the Ukrainian elite constant struggle for achievement of own interests is characteristic. It in turn negatively affects a society. So, for example, because of rivalry of representatives of elite the first Constitution of Ukraine has been accepted only later 5 years after acquisition of independence by it (1996). Besides, struggle of elite prevented to define with a power vector about which it has been told above. Expression «On one mace - two hetmen» as is impossible precisely describes a situation with political elite.

Political parties, probably, are to a society more close other political institutes. They are representatives and defenders of interests of the people. Proceeding from results of recent elections in Ukraine, the people support opposition parties more, in the West it is "Freedom", "Fennel", "Self-help", in the east - «the Oppositional block». The Ruling coalition has lost support in comparison with last year's elections.

Maidan as the political tool of the people

Maidan of Nezalezhnosti - a central square of Kiev. Eventually this place is not become simple sight of the Ukrainian capital, but also the original political tool (political institute, perhaps) in people hands.

Simultaneously the Maidan is used as a platform for the statement of discontent by the power and requirements of certain changes in a society. The people filled the area both in 90th and in 2000-2001 within the limits of a protest action «Ukraine without Kuchma». The Maidan has got special popularity in 2004 during Orange revolution.

This event, certainly, has made huge impact on the Ukrainian society. To treat it it is possible differently: one consider that it was so-called «colour revolution», spent by the USA in policy frameworks of "the forced democratisation». [10] If it and so, that, despite the declared purposes, democratisation as that has not occurred. [11] opposite, a consequence of "colour revolution» usually are country immersing in political chaos, transition of the country to external management, civil war and many other things [12] that has appeared in the Ukrainian society couple of years later. Ukraine did not become more democratic after these events. The occurred event was carried out only under the influence of so-called Realpolitik from the USA [13] which pursued the national interests, no less than during carrying out of other "colour" and "colourless" revolutions.

Other opinion is based that Orange revolution - event inevitable, concerned exclusively internal affairs and was original reaction to actions of administration of Kuchma. The society needed changes. [14] there was a crisis of legitimacy of the Ukrainian power, it is time a mode of Kravchuka-Kuchmy has shown a full inefficiency and even has a just cause to be called as neototalitarianism. [15] and revolution «has executed the historical mission, having split“ a Gordian knot ”ancient regime contradictions». [16]

It is impossible to avoid and absolutely recent Euromaidan which has led to present realities. An exit of people on a main square of Kiev and carrying out of demonstrations on it have led to radical change of the power.

Thus, the Maidan serves as an original symbol of association of the Ukrainian people that, certainly, influences political culture of citizens.

De facto Ukraine weak enough player on international scene. Its voice is too silent in comparison with the western predominant forces, besides, an economic situation in the state strained enough. It is necessary to add and that the conflict on Donbass aggravates position of Ukraine even more.

Now in Ukraine tendencies of disintegration of that statehood which is available are observed. Once again ruling power anyhow chosen by the Ukrainian people, does not satisfy it again. It concerns also critics against the President of Ukraine Peter Poroshenko and Prime minister Arseny Jatsenjuka. The impression is made that the country the next Maidan with a new prefix expects. With such signs it is difficult to state to predict the happy future.

The list of sources

1.Bespalov S.V.prospect of realisation of geopolitical interests of Russia on the post-Soviet territory. - the policy. Political researches. 2011. № 2. With. 118-128.

2.Visotsky Island JU of "Pomarancheva" революцiя a yak змiна paradigms легiтимацiйно ї полiтики ukra§nsko ї vladi//Gumanitarny magazine. D, 2004. - № 3 (23). - With. 95-101.

3.Ivashov L.G.lecture «Russia - the geopolitical centre of the world of the XXI-st century». University Saturdays the HAZE. On September, 26th, 2015.

4.The constitution of Ukraine from June, 28th, 1996 (with changes and additions as of 2/21/2014 of year). An access mode: <http://online.zakon.kz/Document/?doc_id=30391155>

5.Manojlo A.V.technolog of "colour revolutions» in modern displays of "hybrid wars». - «Hybrid wars» in haotizirujushchemsja the world of XXI century / Under the editorship of P.A.Tsygankov. - M: Publishing house of the Moscow university, 2015. - 384 with.

6.«Olland: refusal of elections in Donbass becomes important step to the conflict decision in Ukraine». SHEETS. 10/4/2015. An access mode: <http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2015/10/04/611373-olland-otkaz-ot-viborov-v-donbasse-stenet-vazhnim-shagom-v-reshenii-konflicta-na-ukraine>

7.«Paris costs Minsk» to Kommersant.ru of 10/5/2015. An access mode: <http://kommersant.ru/doc/2825147>

8.Shepherds of Century B. Ukrainian revolution and Russian counterrevolution. - the policy. Political researches. 2010. № 5. С.7-16.

9.Полiтична culture: Методичнi рекомендацi ї to семiнарьских to occupy / Ukl.: N.J.Rotar. - Chernivtsi: Ruta, 2004. - 40., p. 39.

10.Полiтична culture democratic суспiльства: a camp i perespektivi in Ukra§ni: Materiali Vseukra§nsko ї naukovo-is practical ї a conference і ї, 26-27 fierce 1998 rivers - K: Gnozis, 1998. - 226 p., p. 92.

11.«The mode of cease-fire in the east of Ukraine as a whole is observed» by Kommersant.ru. 10/2/2015. An access mode: <http://kommersant.ru/doc/2824372>

12.Sulakshin S.S., Hmylja-Olinter N.V.motivational reconstruction professionalnosti the first person of the state. Works of the Center of scientific political thought and ideology. Vyp. №14, September 2015 n. M: the Science and a policy, 2015. 40 with.

13.Fedotova V.G.Razlichija of political cultures and the international conflicts. - the policy. Political researches. 2015. № 1. With. 44-54.

_____________

[1] «the Mode of cease-fire in the east of Ukraine as a whole is observed» by Kommersant.ru. 10/2/2015. An access mode: <http://kommersant.ru/doc/2824372>

[2] «Paris costs Minsk» to Kommersant.ru of 10/5/2015. An access mode: <http://kommersant.ru/doc/2825147>

[3] «Olland: refusal of elections in Donbass becomes important step to the conflict decision in Ukraine». SHEETS. 10/4/2015. An access mode: <http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2015/10/04/611373-olland-otkaz-ot-viborov-v-donbasse-stenet-vazhnim-shagom-v-reshenii-konflicta-na-ukraine>

[4] Politichna culture: Методичнi рекомендацi ї to семiнарьских to occupy / Ukl.: N.J.Rotar. - Chernivtsi: Ruta, 2004. - 40., p. 39.

[5] Politichna culture democratic суспiльства: a camp i perespektivi in Ukra§ni: Materiali Vseukra§nsko ї naukovo-is practical ї a conference і ї, 26-27 fierce 1998 rivers - K: Gnozis, 1998. - 226 p., p. 92.

[6] V.G.Fedotova. Distinctions of political cultures and the international conflicts. - the policy. Political researches. 2015. № 1. With. 44-54., p. 50.

[7] Constitution of Ukraine from June, 28th, 1996 (with changes and additions as of 2/21/2014 of year). An access mode: <http://online.zakon.kz/Document/?doc_id=30391155>

[8] Sulakshin S.S., Hmylja-Olinter N.V.motivational reconstruction professionalnosti the first person of the state. Works of the Center of scientific political thought and ideology. Vyp. №14, September 2015 n. M: the Science and a policy, 2015. 40 with., p. 21-24; p. 34.

[9] RBC. 26.05. 2014

[10] S.V.Bespalov. Prospects of realisation of geopolitical interests of Russia on the post-Soviet territory. - the policy. Political researches. 2011. № 2. With. 118-128., p. 118.

[11] S.V.Bespalov. Prospects of realisation of geopolitical interests of Russia on the post-Soviet territory. - the policy. Political researches. 2011. № 2. With. 118-128., p. 120.

[12] A.V.Manojlo. Technologies of "colour revolutions» in modern displays of "hybrid wars». - «Hybrid wars» in haotizirujushchemsja the world of XXI century / Under the editorship of P.A.Tsygankov. - M: Publishing house of the Moscow university, 2015. - 384 with., p. 266.

[13] V.G.Fedotova. Distinctions of political cultures and the international conflicts. - the policy. Political researches. 2015. № 1. With. 44-54., p. 48-49.

[14] V.B.Pastuhov. The Ukrainian revolution and Russian counterrevolution. - the policy. Political researches. 2010. № 5. С.7-16, p. 14.

[15] Visotsky O. Ju "Pomarancheva" революцiя a yak змiна paradigms легiтимацiйно ї полiтики ukra§nsko ї vladi//Gumanitarny magazine. D, 2004. - № 3 (23). - With. 95-101.

[16] V.B.Pastuhov. The Ukrainian revolution and Russian counterrevolution. - the policy. Political researches. 2010. № 5. С.7-16, p. 15.

Zvoshchik Evgenie

Tags: assessment , war , A.Snesariev's competition , Ukraina