Petroeuro instead of a petrodollar
The theme of refusal of dollar in calculations for oil deliveries periodically rises in developing states. As a rule, it is accompanied by political rhetoric. In particular, such idea was stated by Muammar Kaddafi in 1990th years and Saddam Hussein in the beginning 2000; refusal of dollar in vzaimoraschetah has occurred in 2009 between Cuba, Bolivia, Venezuela, Honduras, Nicaragua and Ecuador.
The previous president of Iran Mahmud Ahmadinezhad has declared in 2007 at OPEC conference that weakening American currency - only «an inutile piece of paper». Then it convinced the cartel countries to translate oil trade within the limits of the organisation on an eurocurrency.
Practically right after it the Islamic Republic has exchanged 45 billion euro from the reserves for dollars and gold, having reduced a share of an eurocurrency with 50 to 25 percent. Then in Europe there was a financial crisis.
The present statement of the power of Islamic Republic have made on the eve of a country exit on the oil market after almost 14-year-old break. Iran expects to occupy essential enough share of the market, to be exact - to return itself the positions occupied with competitors - Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Whether there is a transition of Iran to euro significant event in the oil market? After all international payments for oil in dollars increase the international demand for currency of the USA, provide demand for the American debt tools and allow the United States to buy oil for currency which they and print.
Whether it means, what to system of petrodollars the end gradually comes?
To Khomeini's precepts are true
The partner of company Rusenergy Michael Krutihin considers that the decision of the Iranian management on a world oil market will not render any influence. «Iran does not sell oil to the United States. After removal of sanctions the Iranian oil will go on the markets of Europe and Asia. To settle payments for the Iranian oil with the European Union in the European currency disturbs nobody, in Asia - it is besides absolutely not important, in what to nominate payments», - the expert argues. Quite possibly, he considers that calculations for deliveries of the Iranian oil to Europe would anyway be conducted in euro.
Thus oil quoting at world raw stock exchanges all the same occurs in dollars, and it does not depend in any way on calculations even with large petroexporters. «It is a question of convenience of calculations. In the world calculations in the American currency simply because it conveniently prevail. The dollar became a reference unit of account, but each country stores receipts from oil sale in that currency in which to it it is convenient», - Krutihin explains. In its opinion, the decision of Teheran to settle payments for the oil in the European currency will not render any influence and on economy of the USA.
In what sense of loud statements about refusal of dollar? The matter is that since 1979 when after Islamic revolution in Iran the present mode was established, in the country there is a struggle of two political directions - "conservative" and "progressive". Both forces are presented by various political parties and mass-media of a different orientation, state structures and departments traditionally occupy "a conservative", "progressive" or "reformatory" position.
One support a priority of the Islamic values, a dominating role of clergy in a country government, in every possible way oppose to distribution of the western ideology to culture and public life. Others take of more pragmatic position. Division into "conservatives" and "reformers" takes place and in the higher Shiit clergy. For example, present president Hasan Rouhani, as well as the fifth president Mohammad Khatami holding this post with 1997 for 2005, concerns "reformatory" camp and thus is the ecclesiastic. At the same time the former president-conservative Mahmud Ahmadinezhad has no ministry.
Besides, elected each four years to straight lines and confidential voting the president is not the head of the state. Its functions are faster the executive. The head of Islamic Republic, according to the Iranian constitution, imam Mahdi - the latent descendant of prophet Muhammada who should come in the end of times is and approve universal domination of Islam. While it has not come, its functions are performed by the spiritual leader of Iran (rahbar). The leader of Islamic revolution Ruholla Khomeini was the first person "displacing" imam Mahdi on a post of the head of the country. After his death in 1989 on this post stays sejid Ali Hamenei round whom conservative forces unite.
As president Rouhani has image of the reformer (that, by the way, promoted removal of the western sanctions from Iran), its actions cause suspicions in ideological opponents. Conservatives are disturbed by that unduly liberal president can lead the country to easing of Islamic ideology. Therefore Rouhani is forced to manoeuvre and make the steps comforting a conservative unit of a society.
The declaration of abandonment of dollar - from this series. Say, we are true to Khomeini's precepts, we continue not to love the West, the USA and, certainly, the main tool of imperialist expansion - dollar. The decision of Islamic Republic does not carry any economic consequences.
But what will be, if to an example of Iran other exporters of oil follow? Whether the power of dollar in world economy will reel? The senior lecturer of chair of the financial markets and financial engineering RANHiGS Sergey Hestanov considers that the general tendency to reducing of a share of dollar in total amount of international payments nevertheless is.
«Certainly, gradually the currency of the USA will be forced out. It is connected with growth of other economy of the world - for example, Chinese. But it is rather long process, it is a question of several decades», - the expert speaks.
As to a modern situation alternatives to dollar as to a universal remedy of calculations do not exist yet, Hestanov believes. «For dollar approximately 80 percent of world trade, for euro - 20 percent, for yuan - two percent today are necessary. Therefore to speak seriously about replacement of dollar because of this or that decision (even rather large) the countries it is not necessary», - the economist specifies. Hestanov notices that the sizes of economy of the USA and the conservative monetary policy provides to national currency of this country long-term hegemony in the world markets.
Besides, transition from dollar for the country-petromanufacturer actually changes nothing for euro. Actually European currency is adhered to American, an exchange rate difference rather small, and economic relations between the USA and an eurozone are very strong.
The dollar not always was the basic medium of exchange: till 1914 the British pound sterling was such currency. It remained universal means of payment up to the end of 1950th years and has been gradually forced out by dollar. On change of the basic world currency it was required without small 45 years, and this process has been caused exclusively by business factors. And to the forced out pound as a result of anything bad has not occurred: it is hard currency, reliable means of payment, and inflation in a zone of its circulatuion rather low.
Officially Iran continues to profess Khomeini's ideology, slogans of Islamic revolution are used in the state propagation. Inscriptions «Death to America!» And «death to Israel!» Still flaunt in the Iranian organisations and in streets of cities, politicians repeat mantras that the USA - «the big shaitan» («the small shaitan» - the USSR - has already died). At the same time all understand that without economic relations from the USA not to manage, and real opponents of Iran in region are Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan.
Therefore a loud statement of the Iranian authorities about refusal of dollar - purely propaganda step, some kind of the reasonable compromise between political rhetoric and a reality.
Tags: assessment , oil