Opened for Assad the road on Rakka
Material posted: Publication date: 24-02-2016
Russia and the USA officially declared development of the joint offer on a truce in Syria. All question in, whether it will be observed.

4 days on war

The text of an armistice is enough simple. Besides a cessation of fire, the parties should meet the conditions accurately, registered in the resolution of Security Council №2254 from December, 18th, 2015. Will make it simply - the resolution as well as many other documents of the United Nations does not contain any accurate requirements and deadlines, except for appeals to the contradictory parties to begin dialogue and to provide access of the humanitarian organisations on the territory. If opponents of Asada (except for the Russian Federations prohibited in territory of "the Islamic state», Dzhebhat an-Nusry and other organisations, the recognised United Nations terrorist) agree with these conditions, they should report about it not later than February, 24.00 26th or to Moscow, or Washington and also to give the data about a site of the forces.« The Russian and American military men jointly, on cards will specify territories on which such groupings act. Against them battle operations of armed forces SAR, the Russian armed forces and a coalition headed by the USA will not be led », - the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin has declared. If separate groups of opposition refuse to accept these conditions, they remain behind an edge of a mode of a cessation of fire.

At first sight, the agreement is extremely unprofitable to Basharu Asadu. The Syrian troops at support Russian VKS, the Iranian subdivisions, "Hezbollah" and the Iraq home guards successfully attack positions of insurgents. And as there are no factors which could break the given trend (last possibility on behalf of Turkish intrusion has disappeared after refusal a Turk to enter troops without Americans), it was obvious that through any time all western Syria will return under the control of Damascus. The armistice forces army to stop approach, to give the chance to insurgents perevooruzhitsja and to recover the forces (after all in the text of the Cease-Fire Agreement there are no points accurately obliging the third countries to cease supply rukopozhatnoj of a unit of secular opposition). So the opposition will not have any bases structurally to participate in negotiating process - having been supported by Turkey and KSA and simultaneously with it without risking to die of the Syrian bullet or the Russian bomb, they can imitate negotiations so much time, how many it is necessary for their owners.

Without Nusry

Meanwhile, in the agreement there are some thin moments which do it not so unprofitable for Bashara Asada. And in some questions it even facilitates to the Syrian troops a road to victory.

First, it is far not the fact that the same Prosaudi opposition it recognises. Yes, the so-called Higher committee on negotiations (VKP) lips of leader Rijada Hidzhaba was declared the consent with this armistice, however by the decision yet definitive. It should be still approved KSA. We will remind that inclusion in a mode of an armistice of their brothers on the weapon and on reception of the sponsor's help from Riyadh - Dzhebhat an-Nusry was one of the basic requirements VKP. This requirement has not been performed.

For Saudi Arabia it is a question of principle. And not only because an-Nusra will not go with Asadom on negotiations and will promote continuation of civil war. That is why that - also is the second thin moment of the present Cease-Fire Agreement - deenergizing an-Nusry from an armistice mode will facilitate Asadu approach both in Idlibe, and in Aleppo, both in Deraa, and near Homs. That is almost on all basic fronts of the Western Syria. The matter is that in these territories there are the enclaves of Nusry which are sometimes essential enough. Is usual they with neighbours had agreements on collective defence - that is local secular insurgents helped "Nusre" to be defended from Asada and on the contrary. And if now insurgents join the agreement, they will be forced to refuse to Nusre in support and the Syrian army can easy grasp the territories controlled by terrorists.

Rakka and Turks

In the third, the agreement with opposition actually liberates great strengths of the Syrian army for a campaign on the east - in the territory, under control YOKES. Yes, from the strategic point of view silly to go to approach to a definitive dressing of flanks and back from local "democrats", however now not to care - game for a rank of the winner of YOKES has begun. This rank and all due bonuses will be received by the one who the first takes Rakku - the Syrian capital «Islamic state». Kurds supported by the Syrian aircraft come to a city from the north, and army Asada - from the West. And to overtake Americans and Kurds, Asadu all reserves are necessary.

Yes, it will be forced to remove troops from a number of directions in the Western Syria, however the opposition cannot take from this any benefits. The matter is that one of agreement points is the accurate prohibition to participants of an armistice to grasp the territories belonging to their partners under the agreement. That is, in translation into Russian, annexation by opposition of under control Asadu of cities under any pretext ("have casually entered", «us have invited», «the people have decided that under us it will be better», «supporters of Asada have run away, and we have come to provide an order») is unacceptable, and aggressors will be forced to return these territories at least. If they refuse, officially will break a mode of an armistice and from it will be excluded - with all that it implies in the form of capture of their enclaves by army Asada.

At last, fourthly, the agreement strikes serious blow to interests of not taken place interventionists - a Turk. Actually the Russian Federation and the USA act as guarantors of a mode of a cessation of fire, and among the parties it is forbidden to them to break agreements, are called not only the Russian armed forces, the Syrian army and other participants of an armistice (that is members of secular opposition), but also members of the American antiterrorist coalition. It means that if the Syrian Kurds (which have not been recognised by the United Nations the terrorist organisation) will join the agreement they can easy continue approach along border with Turkey on the West from Euphrates as there a position of YOKES and Turkey as the member of the international coalition has no right to open on them fire. Otherwise it is possible to consider an armistice broken, and from the American side. Moreover, Turks cannot open a return fire at all - the truce agreement fixes «the right to proportional use of force as a self-defence measure», however it concerns only opposition and the forces connected with army Asada. As a result Ankara has received one more possibility to be convinced of the true relation to it and its behaviour from the American allies. Probably, Erdogan will take from this correct conclusions.

Unconditionally, all analysis resulted in the text will make sense only in the event that the armistice will live though any time. In an ideal, of course, at least to a capture of Rakki the Syrian troops. However some politologists assure that it will be already broken on February, 27th. We will look.

Gevorg Mirzajan

Tags: assessment , Russia , Syria , USA