The analyst has explained why the truce in Syria will be fragile
Material posted: Publication date: 29-02-2016
The situation in Syria is complicated by an involvement of too large number of players, the CEO of the Center of strategic estimates and forecasts Sergey Grinyaev considers.

The come into force armistice in Syria gives hope of an attainment of peace in the country and speaks about the big interest in it of some the involved parties, will keep however it in force hardly as in the conflict too much external players, the general director of the Center of strategic estimations and forecasts Sergey Grinjaev has declared on Saturday of RIA Novosti news agency.

The cease-fire mode in Syria has officially come into force at midnight since Friday on Saturday on Damask time (1.00 Moscow time). The arrangement on an armistice has been reached on February, 22nd during consultations of Russia and the USA.

As the chief of the main operational administration of Joint Staff VS of the Russian Federation Sergey Rudsky has declared, on Saturday from zero of hours aircraft VKS of Russia has completely stopped drawing of blows on those areas and armed formations which have directed demands about cease-fire. According to Rudsky, all forces really having influence on the parties of the conflict in Syria, should put a maximum of efforts for realisation of the agreement on an armistice.

Fragility of an armistice

According to Grinjaeva, the situation in Syria is complicated by an involvement too a great number of players.

"The question in that is how many the armistice will last. During the last years the Syrian precedent is a second similar example after the Minsk agreements on the southeast Ukraine. In something there are common features, but it is a lot of and distinctions. The main difference - in Syria is more than interested parties. I even would tell that in Syria actually behind each grouping there is any regional or global player", - Grinjaev has told.

"Everyone tries to receive certain dividends: someone - territorial dividends, someone - access to the Syrian oil, someone - possibilities of transportation of the power resources through the Syrian territory on the European market and so on", - has added it.

In its opinion, it also complicates a situation with stability of an armistice. Grinjaev has reminded that the USA and personally president Barack Obama prior to the beginning of an armistice have noticed that it will be astable and have a priori accused the Russian Federation of its failure.

"It quite in the spirit of Americans, but it underlines once again complexity and ambiguity of a situation. It is a lot of players and when it is a lot of players, to come to any consensus it is the extremely difficult. It is known on political activity, and when business is entered by the weapon here it is twice more difficult", - the expert has noted.

Nevertheless, he has specified in high interest of the parties in peace process.

"To the Syrian armistice went very much a difficult way. It is necessary to note, what even at last stage of UNSF has gathered with its full complement with a small delay, last editings were brought in arrangements literally last minutes. It speaks about high interest of all parties", - the general director of the Center of strategic estimations and forecasts has told.

Key role VKS the Russian Federation

According to Grinjaeva, Aerospace forces of Russia play armistice achievement in Syria a key role.

"The armistice in that bloody civil war which goes to Syria many years, became possible only after active and powerful introduction VKS the Russian Federation in this conflict at the desire of Damascus. If Russia there was not, the situation would be far from possibility of any armistice. Without dependence from that, a fragile present armistice or not, without dependence from the one who has supported it - important that it is. Without the Russian participation, without strong support of the Syrian army from party VKS of the Russian Federation, it could not be made", - the expert has noted.

In its opinion, today Russia as one of participants of peace process restores the positions in the Near East.

With Asadom will be considered

Grinjaev believes that anyway positions of the president of Syria Bashara Asada only will amplify.

"The armistice has shown that the present management of Syria led by Asadom continues to play a weighty part without dependence from desire of any parties to deduce it for frameworks of political dialogue. The armistice would not take place, if it was supported by the Syrian management and the Syrian army", - the interlocutor has told.

As he said, "therefore without dependence from, whether this armistice or not, with Asadom will remain, with force of the Syrian army will be considered".

To win ISIS it is much more difficult

To reach a clear victory over terrorist grouping "Islamic state" (YOKES, it is forbidden in Russia), according to the expert, it will be much more difficult.

"ISIS - a certain new phenomenon which, unfortunately, up to the end is not comprehended yet, including many world politics. Many try to use it in own interests, but it is very dangerous, because the such phenomenon cannot be supervised", - Grinjaev considers.

"To say that they can be won a power way, I too would not become, as it is the decentralised network structure having the cells worldwide, not only in the Near East. And fight against terrorism practice shows what to eradicate completely such harm it is not possible", - he has added.

Therefore the military decision as the expert considers, no. He notices that there are political and social and economic decisions.

"It is necessary to eradicate the reasons of the such phenomena. And in this case one of the reasons - the failure policy of the USA, their aspiration" velvet "revolutions to change a number of modes correcting in region in the interests. But it has turned out not how they were planned, and on a place of deposed modes there was this terrorist state", - the interlocutor of agency considers.

The USA were tired of the Near East

The USA, according to Grinjaeva, last years practically "zavjazli" in Near-Eastern and Middle Eastern regions also would like to change a vector of the policy.

"In the USA were tired not only of the Syrian conflict, but as a whole from the Near-Eastern and Middle Eastern policy. Over the last 10 years they did not have successes in this region - neither in Iraq, nor in Afghanistan, neither in Syria, nor in Lebanon - everywhere continuous failures. And this page it should be closed. Therefore, as a matter of fact, the Syrian armistice which was offered by Russia is some kind of" a lifesaver ", including for the USA to save the face against that failure policy of last years", - the head of the Center of strategic estimations and forecasts has declared.

Priorities of the American policy and geopolitics as the expert has noted, really change, but some errors of last years still adhere the country to certain regions and do not allow to develop and rearrange any accents.

"It is necessary for them on the east (in Asian-Pacific region), and they are fastened here", - Grinjaev has told.

Ball on the party of Washington

Speaking about prospect of relations of the Russian Federation and the USA as a whole, Grinjaev has noticed that before their normalisation while is far.

"My estimation is that that in this question the situation to a lesser degree depends on decisions of Moscow - as a matter of fact, a ball on the party of Washington. As Washington last years articulates the extremely rigid Antirussian position. Here it is heavy to tell something about normalisation of relations of the Russian Federation and the USA, however it is necessary to prepare for it. I will underline that, unfortunately, it all the same more remote prospect", - considers the expert.

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Tags: assessment , Russia , Syria , USA