No one doubted that the two Pro-government coalition consisting of up to ten parties, irregularly grouped around Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic and foreign Minister Ivica dačić will receive the vast majority of seats in the Assembly. No serious arguments could be in favor of at least the theoretical success of a diverse and unstructured opposition. In fact, Prime Minister Vucic himself initiated early elections to strengthen their positions in the Parliament for the conduct of painful and unpopular reforms required for accession in the EU. Yes, in the indefinite future, but Vucic chose the course to join the EU at any cost, while trying to balance on multiple chairs at the same time. He tries to maintain friendly relations with Russia, calls the agreement with NATO "technical" and trying to buy in Moscow the latest in weaponry, he speaks about the "historical Pro-European course of Serbia".
"Survived many years he served in the leadership of the Radical party Vojislav Seselj was taken on her quota of the post of information Minister of Yugoslavia during the war in Kosovo and NATO bombing, for which got under sanctions of the West"
However, for Serbia it is traditional. Almost at all times in the Balkans had to deal with a "political personality". Yes, nobody cancelled the good feelings between Russians and Serbs, but these feelings have never converted into something practical. In Belgrade, an extremely influential Pro-European faction, which, of course, are unable and unlikely to ever be able to push the accession to the sanctions against Russia (the same Vucic spoke against), but quite able to turn Serbia towards Brussels.
Both Pro-government Alliance, "Serbia wins" Vucic and "socialist party – United Serbia," Dacic – pointedly distancing themselves from those parties, which they recorded in a "nationalist". This is another manifestation of schizophrenia. The founder of the socialist party was Dacic, Slobodan Milosevic, and the Dacic (by the way, a native of Kosovo) formerly chaired its Metropolitan branch. Vucic same for many years he served in the leadership of the Radical party Vojislav Seselj was taken on her quota of the post of information Minister of Yugoslavia during the war in Kosovo and NATO bombing, for which got under sanctions of the West. If you think about it, their so-called Pro-European course is the best kind of Serbian nationalism, but without maps of a greater Serbia, a Royal military uniform, cross of Saint Sava and the other usual paraphernalia. Nationalism Vucic pragmatic. "Our policy – we love Serbia, we respect Russia, we respect America, we go to the EU. But, first of all, we love Serbia," he says. And this is a very understandable slogan, especially for young people. Together, the two Pro-government bloc was in the Assembly an absolute majority, so the election in that sense nothing changed, except that made the factions more convenient for party and government leaders. Specifically, the party Vucic "in one person" without allies and associates, has collected almost half of the votes, and the socialists Dacic – more than 11%. That is exactly what they promised polls.
But the main highlight of the campaign was the appearance on the playing field with Vojislav Seselj's Radical party, whose popularity has grown since then, as Seselj returned from the Hague, was miraculously healed from cancer and eventually was acquitted by the Hague. In theory, the radicals promised something around 8% of the vote, about 8% of the votes they eventually got, so that will be presented in the Assembly for the first time since 2012. However, the real political weight it to not increase. The popular forces opposing the course of the European integration and for a stronger Union with Russia, recently grew, but Vucic was not asleep.
Another thing is that luck is unlikely to be with him forever – he's too arrogant and insufficiently accurate. Vucic openly opposed the holding of a referendum on membership in NATO, since "Serbia has not expressed a desire to join the Alliance" (while not expressed, it is necessary to add here). Reliance on an obedient Parliament he needs to for the next four years, in his own words, "to switch to European standards" in the economy and the social sphere. This is a very dangerous stunt. Before the election the coalition with Vucic with a crash and a scream is not even out, and ran out of the Party of United pensioners of Serbia Milan Krkobabic. They, to put it mildly, disliked the social changes that implies the rate on the accelerated European integration. And everything that we love: raising the retirement age, cancel or monetization of social benefits, freezing of the pension system and "optimization" of tariffs of housing and communal services. Those reforms inhabited by pensioners of Serbia (literally, this is one of the "old" from the point of view of the average age of residents of the country in Europe) is dangerous to life.
In response, Vucic (and to be honest, if not in advance) began to accuse the opposition and anyone else who disagrees with his rapid course, "the splitting of Serbia". "Started a hysterical campaign mounted to divide the country," he said from the podium into the void, without naming names. In neighboring Montenegro, President Djukanovic did not hesitate to accused of "splitting the country" Russia, the Russian Embassy and Moscow journalists. Vucic until beware – he needs weapons, gas, oil and money. And he realizes that he will get it all, but not because he is at least someone in Moscow cute, and on geopolitical and moral and historical reasons. In any case, his message is very clear: I am for a United Serbia, which is in the EU, and those opposed for division and chaos. By coincidence, those who opposed the policy of accelerated European integration, also in favour of strengthening cooperation with Russia. It's an amazing coincidence and generates a "policy split personality", when the Serbs as a people seems to be with all my heart for Russia, and the European Parliament shall elect and applaud the course Vucic.
Another extremely painful moment "of European integration," according to Vucic, the problem of refugees and migrants. In Serbian media leaked the plans to build for the German money in the territory of Serbia's large refugee camps, which caused a rather sharp reaction of society. The Republic has suffered enough during the last "wave of migration", and camp for a few tens of thousands of people is beyond slogans "Serbia wins" and "We love Serbia".
The problem of refugees and the worsening of relations between Russia and NATO pushed into the background the situation in Kosovo. Especially pushed the new President of Hashim Thaci, the law on the extension of autonomy to the Serbian communities in the North region has had a major therapeutic effect. Especially young voters who do not perceive Kosovo and Metohija as something personal. Those with Kosovo – Serb and personal, to vote for Seselj, and the voices of the ruling coalition do not even have to fight, completely eliminating the Kosovo theme of pre-election rhetoric.
Another issue splitting the Serbian society, the so-called doctrine of "armed neutrality". This is not only a question of joining NATO, it is generally a principle of life, perfectly fit in the peculiarities of national mentality. In contemporary Belgrade, it is impossible to refer to the experience of Josip Broz Tito, but it was he who invented and implemented the concept of the non-aligned movement. The idea of "neutral Serbia" under new titles appear periodically in the present Belgrade. By coincidence her support as those people that Vucic would like to record in the Memorandum, but does not work. Unless, of course, does not take into account the fact that the society is indeed divided, including on the issue of further integration in Western structures, much less accelerated.
By and large there is no reason to believe that the new arrangement in Parliament, the government fully guarantees the freedom of any action for the next few years. Serbian MPs are prone to riots and poorly manageable even within the party, not to mention coalitions. Nobody cancelled their own positions of socialist Dacic – full idyll the government did not have before. Will the new Vucic to convert the situation into something practically useful – the big question. Hour, again, have to hold early, but in advance of scheduled elections.
Tags: Russia , NATO , Balkans