Rohani can replace Ahmadinejad new
Material posted: Pankratenko Igor N.Publication date: 15-05-2016
Held in Iran in late April second round of elections to the Parliament practically has not brought changes to the already determined the balance of power between the "reformers", "independent" and "conservatives".

The first still continue to harp on some kind of victory, close to the administration of President Hassan Rouhani experts are still on the pages of Newspapers to juggle the percent of voters – but all this has little relation to the real sentiments of the Iranians, whose hope is replaced all a big disappointment.


Very little time is left until the third anniversary of the coming to power of Hassan Rouhani and his team of pragmatists". In the Pro-presidential press advertised numbers decrease inflation, but today it is the only, and that is quite doubtful economic success Executive of the Islamic Republic. Have you changed the quality of life in fact, had reached agreement in Vienna on a real recovery in Iran's economy? Here two main questions of the layman, residing in the capital of the country. And to both of these questions he found the answer negative. Which, incidentally, is confirmed by the statistics.

Rouhani and consolidated around it, the "reformers", despite the ambiguity of this term in relation to Iran's political life, still did not understand all of the fragility and relativity of their success in the parliamentary elections. The "victory", which they like to say, they brought the vote in the capital. Which is understandable, because it is the capital, the population benefited from economic innovations of the presidential administration. For the period of stay for Rouhani in the presidential chair the per capita income in Tehran increased by 8.5%. In other cities they fell by 5.4%. Things are even worse in rural areas where per capita income fell back by 13.8%. Moreover, more than one million Iranians living in rural areas, over the years of his presidency, Rouhani has expanded the number of those in the country whose incomes are below the poverty line.

The rich get richer, the poor get worse

The paradox is that in the last presidential term of Rouhani predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, at the height of the sanctions regime, the poverty rate in Iran has decreased. The explanation here is quite simple – subsidies to the population, grants and subsidies again. Critics of the former President put it to him guilty, talked about the huge burden on the budget. And once in power, of course, immediately began to cut them. The recent sequestration of the social package was held in early April and has affected 24 million Iranians, primarily civil servants, representatives of paramilitary groups and the armed forces. The amount seems to be small, $ 12 per month per person, but for many households, and even when existing in Iran the level of prices for goods the economy is quite significant.

Interestingly, Pro-government media accused the abolition of subsidies... parliamentary bloc of conservatives", they say, such an insidious way they have damaged the reputation of the presidential team. However, they themselves "reformers" for the recovery of these payments are in no hurry to fight, recognizing that the abolition of subsidies for the population – it is very necessary, and modernization of Iran's economy without budget relief from social spending simply impossible.

The result of all these manipulations – increasing social stratification. If in the last years of the presidential term of Ahmadinejad's Gini coefficient - a quantitative indicator showing the degree of inequality of different options of income distribution – decreased from 41.5 in 2008 to 37.4 in 2012, today observers have noted reverse process – it growth over the two years of Rouhani to 38.8 points. The rich get richer, the poor... not just poorer, but their number increases. "It turns out that the social policies of Ahmadinejad from the point of view of social justice principles and values of the Islamic revolution was more rational, than the actions of the current Cabinet of pragmatists?", - asks himself the question today Iranian man in the street.


The answer is that is a priority in the economy for the current presidential administration. Ministers forced decisions on major subsidies for private petrochemical companies, wrote an open letter to the President about the need for government support of the stock market. They - dragged a decision on the state support of the domestic auto industry (persistently held by the Iranians because of the low quality of production) and lobbying for the transfer of purchased in France Airbus to the company-carrier Homa, which will soon be privatized.

In this list the daily Affairs of the Iranian Cabinet of Ministers is completely absent this issue, as the impoverishment of the population, reducing household incomes and other social problems. Grants to support high-quality higher education system and increase the availability of medical services have also been reduced. In the end, the only sectors where the state is willing to invest are stock market, automobile industry and petrochemicals.

On the one hand, they did not pull on the "locomotives" of the economy, since even in the same industry at the achievement level, when Iran entered into a three of leaders of sales of its cars in the middle East, requires at least five to seven years. On the other – the brevity of the list of sectors that are recognized by the Cabinet of Ministers "rational", perfectly illustrates the triumphant official media, a report on emerging recovery of the economy, and plots, when the inhabitants sulfur (elite) districts of Tehran are telling about the success of the business.

The consequences of disappointment and loss of hope Iranians

The specificity of the Islamic Republic lies in the fact that the government cancel the social grants was perceived by the majority of the population not just as assistance from the state, and as their share of the wealth of the country. And the fact that they now find themselves below the poverty line, deprived of good nutrition, health and education – is perceived as blatant injustice.

Talk about some reforms, disputes over access to social networks and the blocking of Google – have no matter how and no matter the debate, "conservatives" and "reformers" on the limits of the ideals of the Islamic revolution. Simple Iranian living in the capital, sees that the family income is reduced. Young people from the province sees that social lifts are closed for her. Unemployment is almost not decreased after the lifting of sanctions, puts the bullet on the achievements of Rouhani's type signature of the Vienna agreement.

The current President and his Ministers almost one to one repeat the mistakes of the "liberalization" of the former President Khatami, which led the country to economic collapse, the rise of separatism and other negative phenomena. Associated with the election of Rouhani hopes of the majority of Iranians did not last even one term. What the current "reformers" are going to go to the population for the upcoming presidential election in 2017 – a big mystery. Will bet on the vote in Tehran? Very questionable calculation, and he will not be able to justify, because the income growth in the capital is, by and large, "the average temperature in the hospital" because the Gini coefficient affects local households, albeit not as markedly as in the whole country.

The only way out loans, even on unfavorable terms, but to "fill" the growing social discontent money. But the first question is whether to allow them to take negatively-minded to Rouhani, and very influential in Parliament group "conservatives"?


The second question is, who will provide them and under what political obligations? If the Iranian President will try to seek loans from the West, then he is risking to displease the Supreme leader, who, remember, may remove the President from office even without explanation. Very real Chinese loans, but here the administration of Rouhani is a "fine game" that the very confused – the Treaty with China signed, but their implementation Tehran is not in a hurry, trying to bargain with new Delhi. A time of new elections, meanwhile, is inexorably approaching.

Socio-economic crisis in Iran, let's call a spade a spade, did not pass. Until the end of presidential powers Rouhani and his Cabinet pragmatists" is fifteen months. And if a solution was not found as of this very crisis to get out – you do not need to be psychic in order to predict with confidence the coming to power of a figure similar to Ahmadinejad – a hard in the international arena and more attentive to the social needs of the majority of Iranians.

Igor Pankratenko


Tags: Iran , assessment