According to estimates of the Committee for state security, socio-political tensions in the country could quickly come to a critical point. Using the worsening economic crisis, the growing discontent of the people deteriorating quality of life, destructive forces openly destabilisateur environment, inspire social panic, leading to the capture of power. Latest fully observed in the Baltic republics, Western Ukraine, to a large extent in Transcaucasia. These processes threaten in the near future to cover the most important political centers of the country, such as Moscow and Leningrad, a number of large industrial regions of the RSFSR. It is estimated that, in the case, if not taken decisive measures to protect the existing constitutional system, the development of destructive tendencies may become irreversible.
The driving forces in the struggle for power today are those who before stood on an openly anti-socialist positions, national chauvinists, acting under the flag of implementation of the national idea, reactionary religious circles, representatives of segments of society living at the expense of the shadow economy. Despite the difference of their fundamental interests, the Union on anti-Communist platform allows them to act in a coherent and purposeful.
These forces often appear to the public in the form of various parties, movements, currents, clubs applying for the expression of interests and sentiments of broad layers of the population. At the same time, specifically the study of this phenomenon is irrefutable evidence that many policy applications, claim that these forces do not reflect neither the needs nor interests of the vast majority of citizens. However, in conditions of deep economic crisis, a significant weakening of the Communist party, especially its convening role, not regulated mechanism of power, as well as the seizure of key positions in the media, the political opposition was able to impose on society its own the adjustment scenario.
The result of the recent organizational, ideological and political work, she was able to significantly increase its influence in the major centers of political life of the country, especially in Moscow and Leningrad. Imposed upon here, the destructive position gets wide attention, demoralizing the healthy forces, largely destabilizie situation in the Union as a whole.
Analysis of incoming materials confirms the validity of the predictions which were repeatedly informed the Court concerning the origin and development of destructive tendencies, their masterminds and driving forces, the true intentions of the opposition - to radically change the foundations of the state and political system of our country, not stopping even before the collapse of the Soviet Union. And if until relatively recently, such aspirations were kept secret, was discussed in a narrow circle of like-minded people, but today they are transformed into a system of large-scale and coordinated action by involving different strata of the population, representatives of the Deputy corps in the campaign of destruction of existing institutions. Part of the opposition for tactical reasons still covered with slogans of eradicating admitted "distortions" of socialism. However, if to look truth in the eye, then we are talking about the eradication of socialism as such.
In its activities, the opposition is based on the growing support of numerous foreign consultants and experts, often linked to Western intelligence agencies, including those with experience of liquidation of socialism in the countries of Eastern Europe, struggle against progressive regimes in other States. The actions of the latter include the nature of the increasingly blatant interference in the internal Affairs of the USSR. The slightest attempt of authorities to hamper this Subversion declared "anti-democratic", accompanied by threats against the adoption of the USSR of different kinds of sanctions.
- Block anti-socialist forces, from the outset, was in Moscow. Today such parties and politicized unions as the interregional Association of democratic organizations, Democratic party of Russia, Sotsial-democratic party of the Russian Federation, the Union "Shield", Moscow Association of voters, the club "Moscow tribune", part of the Interregional Deputy group are influenced by such forces and continue to play the role of generators of anti-socialist ideas. In the last days the anti-Communist circles openly declared the need "to take political responsibility for the future.
Today the scenario of the seizure of power in relation to the characteristics of the situation prevailing in the country, becomes more apparent. The main blow was inflicted on the party by transferring its power to the Soviets, the target of attacks have consistently become the Federal government, the Supreme Council and the President as well as the organized institutions of government, the army and the state security organs.
With this aim, the ongoing campaign of unbridled demagoguery and cheap populism, the substitution of social, political and moral guidelines. Especially obvious destructive force came under the control of the opposition media, forcing the social atmosphere of pessimism and hysteria. The paradox is that this function is performed not so much media of various anti-socialist parties and movements, and often individual state-owned key media — TV, radio, print media, acting on behalf of the Supreme Soviet countries and republics, the Communist party, the mass organisations.
The destruction inherent in the citizens of a socialist society value orientations is done by indiscriminate vilification of the history of the socialist state, the discrediting of Marxism-Leninism, attacking its founders, especially of Lenin. Recently this took the form of a wave of vandalism against monuments to the leader, especially in the Baltic States, Transcaucasia, Ukraine, and some regions of Russia, including in Leningrad.
Again, the role of policy, "control the streets" - the maintenance of mass psychosis by endless pickets, rallies, demonstrations, hunger strikes. This anti-socialist forces have used the outbreak of discontent of the population failures in the supply (the so-called "wine", "tobacco" and other "riots"), seek to give them anti-state, anti-Communist orientation.
You should not indulge in illusions that today none of the claims to power of the opposition is not calling for violent change of regime. This call will be heard as soon as the accumulated potential, including the authorities, seem to them sufficient for victory. Obviously, the rate will be made on proven in Eastern Europe the scenario of the withdrawal of hundreds of thousands of people and the direction of the accumulated discontent against existing government decision-making and political structures.
Today no doubt the willingness to violence by anti-constitutional forces. And then break the pockets of civil war in Transcaucasia, they Mature in Moldova, the Baltic States and Ukraine. These processes are accompanied by the incitement of ethnic hatred, moral terror, threats of physical violence against individual deputies, the Soviet and party workers, and sometimes murders of the deputies, as it took place in Armenia. This year, in Ukraine law enforcement authorities asked more than 100 people's deputies with a request to protect them and their loved ones from physical threats.
All this exposes the hard created the myth that as a result of political change will come to power some "liberal Democrats". This fallacy has been disproved by the experience of some Eastern European countries and partly the Baltic republics. A real prospect is that the done its job "liberals" will soon be swept away by running after them with the force, not hiding their dictatorial ways, which are reviewed nurtured corruption and the shadow economy circles.
About any shows in Russia adopted on 31 July, "programme of action, the 90" "of the Russian democratic forum", bringing together standing very anti-Communist positions of the "Democratic party", "Christian democratic Union" and a number of other groups. "Program" includes the struggle through a General political strike for the resignation of the Union government, the dissolution of Congress of people's deputies of the USSR and replacing it by the Constituent Assembly, the seizure of land using a specially put together "groups of squatters".
According to reports, the resignation of the Federal government focuses not so much on the health of the political and economic situation in the country as to the taking control of key ministries and agencies, including defence, internal Affairs and state security.
The leitmotif of the public campaign becomes hidden or obvious threat "to shed blood" if the current political leadership will not hand over their positions.
For example the Caucasus, the Baltic States in some areas of the country, the process of creation of groupings that can be used as armed support of the opposition.
Anti-socialist forces, especially through their representatives in the Deputy corps, eager to spread the negative impact on workers and young people, to encourage them for active political intervention.
Reportedly, in the near future a sharp escalation of force, unconstitutional activity, the peak of which should be a "General political strike". It is designed to paralyze economic life of the country and force the current government to resign. In this direction, in particular, the leaders of the "Russian people's front", "Sotsprof", "Democratic party of Russia" is an intense inflammatory work in the miners strike committees and other "independent" unions of workers.
As one of the most effective tools for the implementation of their plans, the opposition is considering the students. With his participation it is planned to organize a boycott classes, block buildings of the Soviet and party organs, to create a "policing units". All this is confirmed by the latest events in Ukraine.
The situation in the country exacerbated by an acute shortage of essential commodities, including food, inability to buy food even the modest standards of their holiday coupons. The growth of the deficit and disruptions in supply are observed in the industrial centers of the country where the enterprises have their key industries: mining, metallurgy, and chemistry. Compared with previous years far worse is the case of agricultural produce for the winter. Particularly concerned about the difficult situation with the supply of food, even in cities such as Moscow and Leningrad.
According to estimates of the opposition leaders, the moment of a decisive storm is approaching, increasingly, the motto "Now or never!". Has intensified dramatically different mass actions which are trying to carry out under the slogan "dismantle Empire". Special efforts were made to overshadow the commemoration of the anniversary of the great October socialist revolution, to present November 7 as the "day of national disaster."
Confirmation of our estimates is the stream of references of citizens with the requirement to give an explanation of why no action is being taken to stabilize the political situation. At the heart of these cases is a deep concern with the real possibility of losing the socialist cause in the country. This information is provided purely for your information. In General, the KGB provides the tracking of the operational situation, regularly inform higher bodies of state authority and management on developments in the country, make suggestions for its stabilization, in close cooperation with other law enforcement agencies take specific practical measures for the prevention and suppression of extremist anti-constitutional actions. However, in the current situation to the public security authorities bear the greatest responsibility in the protection of the Soviet constitutional system. In this regard, it is necessary to assess the political and operational situation in each region, every action of destructive forces from the point of view of determining the extent of the threat from their side for the security of the state and society.
Chairman V. Kryuchkov.
October 18, 1990
Tags: analytical work , USSR