Perhaps the main political Lukashenka's statement was about the fact that Belarus embarked on the path of multidirectional. "We have no fate, how to build our foreign policy as multi-vector. That was my strict requirement – the multi-vector policy, I intuitively felt it", – he told reporters.
According to the Belarusian head of state, with multiple views", not everything", "flying on one wing". Lukashenko believes that the path of multi-vector for Belarus predefined geographical position "at the epicenter of the Eurasian continent".
"We need to be friends with all the neighbors, we neither Russia nor Ukraine, nor Poland, nor Lithuania nor Latvia are not strangers. These are our neighbors," he said.
If to speak about the neighbors of Belarus, the Baltic countries and Poland have chosen the orientation to the West and are in the EU (as the poor relations), Russia and Belarus form a Union state, Ukraine's multi-vector policy was brought to the Maidan, war and loss of territories. However, Lukashenko is convinced that Belarus has a multi-vector was formed is not so, as the Ukrainian neighbor. By the way, the way the change of power in Ukraine, he did not approve:
"The Maidan is a shame for the country, is the mark for Ukraine." And told the media that part of the Ukrainian problem had to be addressed to the Belarusian state: "I sometimes look at Europe and I feel sad for what is happening there, and for those leaders. Moan, cry, share those refugees for 500 people, a thousand people... Although the Baltic States, the countries of Eastern Europe rests: no, we will not let a thousand people. And I sit and think: my God, we're two years from Ukraine took 170 thousand. I instantly signed the decree, and we gave them all the conditions as Belarusians. 170 thousand."
The war in the Donbas and worsening at the moment the Belarusian President also does not approve and believes that the responsibility for what is happening in the first place, shall be the head of the state on whose territory military operations are taking place. However, criticized the President of Ukraine caution: "I don't want to blame Petro Poroshenko, we have a good relationship with him".
No coup in Ukraine nor the subsequent events Lukashenka reason does not bind with multiple views. On the contrary, such a foreign policy Belarusian President sees window of opportunity that will allow endlessly to balance between Russia and the West in the hope to stabilize the economic situation of Belarus.
In Ukraine, it worked for a long time. Almost a quarter of a century. Perhaps Lukashenko is confident that Belarus has a lot of time - decades to balance out.
Today the Belarusian balancing is, on the one hand, the introduction of "visa-free five days" for the citizens of 80 countries, with another – criticism of Russia for the establishment of border zones in the Russian-Belarusian border for those who enter Russia through Belarus. "Who are they close the border? What area is this? Better protection than we do? Worse! This is a pure political attack," Lukashenko indignant and said: if Russia starts thus the demarcation of the border, "this could lead to serious conflict."
Actually, this is the first fruit tart of multi-vector, with which the Belarusian President connected best expectations.
The next challenge will be relations with the IMF, which, according to Lukashenko, there were no disagreements. We are talking about a loan of $3 billion of 2.28% per annum for 10 years. To obtain the IMF wants Belarus to reform the housing and communal services (100% payment) and to improve the management of public enterprises (including through privatization). These requirements are standard, nothing new in them. An example of a neighbor – Ukraine – shows what ultimately ends it: exorbitant prices for utilities and by the emergence of a class of oligarchs (which says, in its study of the future Belarusian "Liberal club", predicting a split of the elites in the Republic of Belarus on the ground of conflict between the country's leadership and "proteoliposome"). So far, however, everything is seen in bright colors: the increase in utility payments, IMF agree to stretch into several stages, and Belarus is ready from the budget to compensate for this increase for citizens who have to pay the new rates will not.
In 2016 Belarus credited Eurasian Fund for stabilization and development – $800 million, Russia (government and banks) – $552 million, banks of China – about $447 million, the International Bank for reconstruction and development – $134,2 million, took out loans from other smaller banking institutions. On January 1, 2017, the amount of external debt amounted to $13.6 billion, showing an annual increase of 9.6%. Debt repayment amounted to $892,4 million For Belarus, the question of debt servicing is very acute, so the question of cooperation with the IMF is seen as one solution. However, as time will show, the fruits of this transaction also will not be happy with a pleasant taste.
Contrary to the predictions of the opposition (they called Lukashenko "a complete lie") Belarus is not going to leave the Eurasian economic Union, CSTO and the Union state. However, the Customs code, the President has not signed, and intends to withdraw the Belarusian specialists of customs authorities of the EAEU. "What fence to fence, if it's not working," he told reporters.
The main economic claim Lukashenko to Russia: the cost of gas, reduction of oil supplies and restrictions on the supply of Belarusian products. The head of the Rosselkhoznadzor Sergey Dankvert, the President of Belarus has threatened criminal case, to which Moscow responded with bewilderment.
Regarding oil, the Belarusian head of state assured reporters that no Russian black gold Belarus will cost, despite the difficulties. Lukashenka rests on the fact that freedom and independence "are not evaluated no money, no numbers." That to numbers, in the period from 2011 to 2015, the supply of duty-free Russian oil to Belarus ranged from 18 to 23 million tons annually.
Commenting on the friction in Russian-Belarusian relations, Lukashenko dismissed the prospect of Belarus being drawn into the orbit of the West: "Probably, in Russia there was a suspicion that Belarus "will go" to the West. If in the West someone will raise the conversation in the plane "Russia – EU", then I would say: we are with Russia one of the cradle, not even start. But we two States!"
And NATO, the Belarusian government is not going: "We are not Ukraine, we are not anti-Russian, we in NATO do not seek".
Lukashenko against the deployment in Belarus, the Russian airbase, but absolutely not against Russia "recreated" the airfield and in the framework of the CSTO passed to the Belarusian state two dozen military aircraft, managed in Belarusian pilots: "You give me twenty planes, great pilots, great school, you know that we are not fighting is worse on military aircraft, we're a unified group".
Joint military exercises with Russia, which will be held in Belarus in 2017, Lukashenko has no plans to cancel, as demanded by the opposition. It does not allow occupation of Belarus (how about trumpeting the Belarusian fifth column). "Why do you write that Russia occupied Belarus? This will never happen. Even if we introduce a thousand tanks is impossible," – said the President of Belarus at the meeting with the media.
His main dream Lukashenko called a quiet and comfortable life of the people of Belarus.
Ukraine also wanted to be a country. And had all the chances to be, if not ill-fated multi-vector.
However, the Belarusian President has time to appreciate the taste of the fruits. But certainly not decades. XXI century faster than the twentieth century.
The Belarusian opposition, Lukashenka's meeting with the press was disappointed. They waited enchanting the move, and got a minuscule. Either you secede from the Union and the EAEC, nor cancel military exercises with Russia, nor a bad word in the address of the President of Russia (on the contrary, Lukashenko called Putin a friend). Had to appeal to the conscience of colleagues in the struggle, not dared to ask "dictator" sensitive issues, and return to the usual topics like "Will the Kremlin to overthrow Lukashenko?" and "Lukashenka must resign".
Sob. Q. FSK
Tags: assessment , Russia , Byelorussia