Something epochal has happened that has opened up new exciting opportunities for half of the Land. This phrase, I confirmed that I share the enthusiasm of our "Akhborot", Russian "Vesti", the Chinese CCTV-1 and all other mass media about the results of the SCO summit in Astana. And now seriously...
In late April, SCO Secretary-General Rashid Alimov (Tajikistan citizen, graduated from the Academy of social Sciences under the CPSU Central Committee, the Chinese winner of the gold medal "silk road") told reporters: "on 9 June in the evening we will have another, larger and stronger organization." Yes, indeed, the SCO is much increased in size by territory and population. But here was this colossus stronger? The SCO can now be compared with ASEAN, NAFTA, TPP, EU, etc., become equally attractive for cooperation. We tried to compare, now let's show why rejoice too early...
The SCO was founded in 1996 as the Shanghai five - China , Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. After accession in 2001 to the five Uzbekistan, the organization received its present name. It was thought that accumulated unprecedented in the history of Eurasia, the potential, the SCO will quickly become the center of attraction for many. If we talk about the economy of the SCO, China, the SCO needed to break with their goods and money through ASEAN. "The initiative of the Bay of Bengal" keeps him on a short leash for 3 years, Pacific partnership was not allowed, etc. For the last time in China 3 closed thousands of large enterprises, the so-called. "Rust belt" (metallurgy and engineering) no longer gives the increase in output – nowhere to sell... Russia, in turn, is also seen in the SCO new markets for its not yet popular products... the Countries of Central Asia already mentally calculated the investment from the Bank of the SCO... what?
In 20 years, the SCO did not use either one of the multilateral project! Perennial talk about the Bank of the SCO (the headquarters was planned in Tashkent) is absolutely barren. Meanwhile, the BRICS Bank has long been working. With the SCO development Fund – the same story... China and Russia has quietly abandoned hopes for this new "formation" and all contracts with the countries-SCO members concluded on a bilateral basis (a recent example: the visit of the President of Uzbekistan to China). Because last week, China has already reduced by 20% the funding of the SCO (the Financial Times). And now Russia views the SCO not only as a mechanism for "plugging in" of member countries to their States (in looks and Uzbekistan). Do all the promises of the founding fathers of the mighty General about the economy – nothing more than sweet dreams for politicians, who decided to create their own, do not focus on the West Union?
SCO love the different Chinese sayings. So, keeping in mind the completely different structure of the economies of the parties, it is useful to recall Confucius: "When the path to goals are not the same, the overall plan does not constitute a"... What is the overall goal may be the China (GDP of $11064 billion, the foreign trade turnover $3685 billion), India (GDP is $2088 billion, turnover of $ 623 billion) and Uzbekistan ( GDP of $68 billion, turnover of $22 billion)? A big mistake was made in the beginning: the Charter of the SCO recorded the fundamental principle: "Decisions in the SCO are made by consensus without voting". Both wanted to avoid the formation of factions wanted to underscore the equality – no one can "push", we agree. Down hard and uncompromising "no!" In short – the consensus, the spirit of harmony. This principle diplomats called "Japanese": Japanese in the negotiations will be a long to fool you, until you realize that it's time for the bagpipes to finish. But the Japanese "save face"... as a result of all the discussions, if there are different opinions ( as they should be!) encounter in the SCO each time an undefined expressions with subtle negative meaning... the Question can remain on the agenda for decades. Talk – dispersed: that is the principle that the SCO called discussion.
The SCO is the only international organization that professes this strange principle. Now that organizations have been China and India, India and Pakistan, considered the application of Iran (since 2008), the consensus in the SCO is even more problematic.
NATO, for example, does not accept countries that have territorial claims to anyone. China and India not only are they, they poured into the war of 1962, 1967, 1987 years. The last major conflict was most recently in 2014, a Chinese battalion invaded for 30 km into the region of Aksai Chin in Kashmir and the month to settle the occupied territory. I must say: the word "invaded" here may be inappropriate (let them understand), because the Chinese believe Aksai Chin as its (is 38.8 thousand sq km). As well as the Hindus consider as their integral territory of the state of Arunachal Pradesh ( this is 90,6 thousand sq km), and kept there two mountain infantry division. But the latest Chinese map 2014-year the state designated as Chinese territory. To clear the nature of the claims, compare: the territory of Fergana valley - 22 thousand sq. km. Between countries it's been 15 rounds of negotiations on borders, which stopped (forever?) when China was not given a visa to the head of Northern command of Indian General B. Jaswal. And that's when India in 1998, the year held its largest nuclear test, its Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee told bill Clinton: "the Factor which determines the nuclear weapons of India is China." Indian ballistic missile "Agni-5" in strategic terms needs only to strike at China, where she was shot "through and through", until the "rust-belt" on the coast of the Pacific ocean. The Director of the Center for the study of war in new Delhi Gurmit the Kanwal had this in mind when he said, "We can strike far from its borders".
China has all this in mind, building military bases around India in Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka. Their military base in Djibouti were even larger than the American, is also located there. Pakistani Gwadar port is the largest military base and Indian ocean, the Chinese had it totally rebuilt. This infrastructure gave the Chinese a great opportunity: China announced 80% of the water surface of the South China sea its territorial waters. Oil transit through these waters to 3 times more than Suez canal – and all this is now under control of China. Besides, now it turns out that ONGC's drilling on the shelf of the Paracel Islands (together with Vietnamese), foreign oil...
About Pakistan, which is now also a member of the SCO, special conversation. He fought three times with India, the last war in 1999, the year Kargil is one of the most bloody and fierce on the Peninsula. As recently as June 6 IndiaToday quoted the words of the chief inspector of the General staff General Bipin Rawat: "Today we are considering all options against Pakistan". What operaprofile chief of General staff Pakistan army, Lieutenant General sahir Shamshad Mirza immediately said, "Pakistani troops are ready to respond to all the forces of the Indian adventure..." let me Remind you: it is believed that both countries have at least 50 nuclear warheads.
Another reminder: exactly at the time of Tashkent summit of the SCO in the past year, when does "the people" happily hugged China tightly blocked India's application for membership in the nuclear suppliers Group (NSG). This membership Indians was very important, as the country is developing nuclear power. Now this way is for her to shut...
And application India in the SCO, China has not blocked simply because relying on the proverbial consensus - say, when it will happen... besides, it was possible to bargain together with India in the SCO, got it tested friend of Pakistan. Which allowed the Chinese in the disputed (with India) territory, "parts of" Aksai Chin to build strategic highway-Tibet – Xinjiang. Another disputed territory (with India, of course) of Kashmir were called. "China-Pakistan economic corridor" (CPAC), which is already being called part of China's One belt-One way (opop). What lays under opop bomb...
Reason India turned down the invitation to China to participate in may at the "start" opop. She, by the way, has its own alternative, not worse, way "North-South" – from its territory via Central Asia and Russia to Europe. And Indians are not like that Chinese opop was ahead of them.
It should perhaps be said about the application of Iran. It's much more difficult than talking to the public. Tajikistan objects almost categorically. The fact that Iran is after the civil war in Tajikistan was one of the guarantors of the peace agreement. Which gave the Islamic Renaissance party in the government and Parliament. Now, the party ousted from government agencies. Iran, as the guarantor requires the implementation of the agreements. Tajikistan considers it interference in its internal Affairs.
And you think SCO is now easier to reach consensus?
There are in the current expansion of the SCO and one problem that affects Uzbekistan. Our media didn't tell, but is discussed (expert level) two-level structure of the expanded SCO. So the consensus was still achievable, it is proposed to create a more "narrow" format for preliminary discussion, as the UN Security Council. The composition will also be following the example of the UN founding countries, it is precisely the "Shanghai five" in 1996. Uzbekistan has not joined. So we are now going "number two"? And our Kyrgyz friends – "Number one"?
The end of a beautiful tale?
Tags: Russia , China , SCO , India