The game in Syria looks effective, but the greatest benefit it will receive from Tehran, experts say.
Announced by the presidents of the United States and Russia agreed on ceasefire in the South-West of Syria was presented as apparent progress in resolving the ongoing in this country of war, however, was nearly crumbled almost immediately after its publication.
First, the agreement was not respected from the very first days one of the main participants of this protracted military conflict — the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his ally Iran. That is not surprising — they are under it was not signed. Secondly, against this agreement sharply criticized by Israel, who fear the rising positions in Syria, its longtime enemy, Iran. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly stated this right after completing their talks with the President of France Emmanuel Macron, who announced Wednesday that Assad's departure for France now is not a condition of the Syrian settlement.
After that, the representative of the American President Sean Spicer summed up: "the US and Israel were interested in ensuring that Iran does not get a foothold and military bases in southern Syria".
Experts interviewed by "Rosbalt" believe that the actual process of settlement in Syria will be much more complex and hardly peaceful. "It was assumed that the new agreement on the security zone in the South-West of Syria, is considered Israel's demand to take the Iranian formation away from its borders. In this case, Israel has agreed to maintain the truce in the region. However, in the final document about Iran was not mentioned. Tel Aviv, for which Tehran is a threat, indignant and opposed", — stated the President of Fund "the Center of political technologies" Igor Bunin.
At the same time, as the expert noted, "while neither the Syrian nor Iranian regimes ceasefire agreement in the South-West of Syria has not signed it and podvisli". However, according to him, "if Iran will remain there, Israel will oppose this arrangement, and he had the best army in the middle East."
Position the new President of France Emmanuel Makron on Syria is that the current President can stay in power for a while, because first we must kill Islamic state (a terrorist organization banned in Russia, — "Rosbalt"), to find ways of settlement in the country and only after that decide the fate of Assad, says the analyst. According to him, "this, in General, I agree, and the President of the United States Donald trump". But the current agreements of the Russian Federation and the USA on Syria, France has nothing, said Bunin.
The situation is complicated by the fact that Assad would like to get their hands on the entire territory of Syria, which he had inherited from his father — the previous head of the country, Hafez al-Assad, said the expert. According to Bunin, a similar setup to the Syrian leader is stopping the federalization of Syria and increases a variety of risks.
An expert on the Middle East Mikhail Magid believes that strengthening in the South of Syria the positions of Bashar al-Assad and his allies — and Iran-funded Shiite group Hizbollah, Israel could respond with attacks of their air force. He noted that 360 of the Israeli F-15 and F-16 "can turn into ashes all the Iranian and Assad columns and bases in the South of Syria and Lebanon."
"If Shia troops on the ground are destroyed, the antiasadovskie the rebels will be able to go on the offensive," suggests Magid. He recalled that "such tactics are already worked out during the onset of the anti-Assad forces under Quneitra, where they covered the Israeli air force striking blows for heavy equipment to Syrian government forces."
At the same time, experts doubt that Israel "dares to hold such actions on a larger scale without the consent of the United States." "At the moment, the position of the American President Donald trump is to "surrender" to Syria, Moscow and Tehran, leaving for America two Kurdish Canton in Northern Syria (Kobani and Jazeera), and there's also a couple of areas in Turkey. Perhaps one or two areas remains in the hands of the anti-Assad opposition, primarily TANF in the South, where the Americans and the British created a military base," — said the expert.
According to some, says Magid, Russia also puts its troops in the South of Syria, which will become an additional, though not an absolute defense for Assad. In his opinion, "Israel can afford it, and Russian troops only cover a small portion of Assad's forces and Pro-Iranian Shiites".
However, "the main strength of Israel is not aviation, but the impact proizralskuyu lobby in the United States," notes Magid. However, according to him, "the time is now to work on Moscow and the Iranians, who every hour are getting stronger in Syria. Possible transfer of Russian troops in the South of Syria is part of this process."
We must pay tribute to the game of the Kremlin — while it looks quite effective, but, nevertheless, the main jackpot in this game will go to Iran", — the expert believes.
Tags: Iran , Russia , Syria , USA