After 25 years of excessive arrogance of the British, Russia became the main international threat. Captain Whitehall gave the go-ahead. Below the decks the stokers throwing coal into the burning furnace. Navigators trying to find long-forgotten routes and maps.
New mood — partly disturbing, partly determined, identified a remarkable speech delivered in a staff-NATO apartment the man whom the government modestly characterizes as "the highest official". This man is in which many in the audience recognized Alex Younger (Alex young), the head of MI6 told the ambassadors of NATO that the Kremlin "was an example of" contemporary threats that face our country and its allies. The goal of Russia was to divide the West, to sow uncertainty and ambiguity. Friends of the boundary was blurred: between words and actions, electronic and kinetic world, between domestic and international threats, even between peace and war. In particular, the old model of conflict in which military action was at 80% of the use of force and 20% of information is now reversed.
Urging allies to expand their activities in the resistance of the Russian hybrid war, he also condemned the "sense of impunity" of the Kremlin, fueled by the unwillingness of the West to respond to Russian provocations. The decision not to act is itself a response, he said reproachfully, and this response would lead to escalation.
This, of course, is the lesson of the last two and a half decades. After a brief period in the early 1990s, when Russia played the role of the state, which "dictate the rules", as she was forced to accept the norms of the world in the period after the cold war, it became a "government that gives the appearance of obedience to the rules": it pretends to respect international agreements, but in fact replaces and breaks them. Further, fueled by rising prices of oil and Putin's control of the political system, it has become a blatant violator of the rules, threatening to disrupt the world order security by intervening in the Affairs of its neighbors. The scale of this intervention ranged from cyber attacks (Estonia, 2007) to a military invasion (Ukraine, 2014). Russia also did not shun bribery, propaganda attacks and aggressive diversion, which was, for example, the abortive coup in Montenegro last year.
Britain and the West in General, preferred to loudly complain instead of take some action. Not surprisingly, Russia chose to intervene even in the internal Affairs of major Western countries. Only at the beginning of this year, the national security service of Britain, finally decided to raise Russia to the level of threats "first order", along with cyber-attacks and terrorism (in the list of threats of 2010, Russia was not even mentioned). After only six months this shift has turned into a strategy. It consists of the following elements: expand our military response domestically and in Eastern Europe, countering the Kremlin's propaganda with the help of "strategic communications," curb Russian intrigue in the territory of the former Yugoslavia, protecting our computer networks from advanced Russian cyberweapon, and the complexity of life of the Russian elite and support of Ukraine.
All this is commendable. As the attention that MPs pay to this question, in particular, the investigation of Russian disinformation attack by the Committee of the house of Commons on digital technologies, culture, media and sport. The parliamentary Committee on intelligence and security, the newly convened after the outrageously long five-month hiatus after the election, will also continue their work.
Ask questions and get answers is not the same thing. Lists of wishes can not be called a strategy. The pursuit of goals does not create the means to achieve it. Since 1991, this country has squandered its potential in relations with Russia. Priority was trade and investment, as well as the search for common ground in the fight against crime and terrorism. Those who were worried about the influence of Russian money in our financial system or have doubted the sincerity of the Russian proposals for cooperation were ousted from the game or suspended. The people responsible for this policy, still for the most part deny it.
As a result, we are constantly caught off guard, we are constantly lacking information about the goals and plans of Russia. In some Moscow circles it has become fashionable to call Moscow the "third Rome", implying that she is a spiritual and geopolitical heir to the Roman and Byzantine empires. Therefore, when the influential Russian websites describe Britain as "Carthage", meaning our total destruction, if you can call it just rhetoric or is hiding something more sinister? Was there a recent Russian military exercises designed to excite the audience in Russia, or the Kremlin really believes that nuclear war is inevitable? It would be useful to know the answers to these questions.
esmotrya that in essence Russia is a weak country, strong she needed her questions. As said, speaking in Parliament last year, Victor Madeira (Madeira Victor), a specialist on Russian threats all together our military attaches, intelligence forces and the Royal troops, and when the whole army, including the Navy, air reconnaissance and surveillance and reconnaissance, 77 brigade (the army unit engaged in information war) relevant to military departments of the government communications Centre and the Cabinet of Ministers, service of the defense intelligence as well as strength of our special forces, Royal landing and parachute troops will amount to only one-twelfth of the estimated amount of just one from the Russian spy agencies, military intelligence, the GRU.
We lack the political will to act in accordance with our wish list. Russia's ties with trump and Brexton should not even mention. City (which is also known as Londongrad) drooling at the thought of the future quotes En+ energy and metals resource conglomerate controlled by oligarch Oleg Deripaska. The proceeds of about 1 billion should go to payment of debts of this company VTB, a Russian Bank with good connections, which struck Western sanctions after Russia's invasion of Crimea. Not one word of criticism from the government has not sounded.
Perhaps Whitehall went on the new route. However, in adverse weather conditions it does not look too seaworthy.
Edward Lucas (Edward Lucas)
Tags: assessment , Russia , UK