According to Bloomberg, the main issue lately has been the drop in the debt market in China: the price of 10-year sovereign bonds of China fell to the lowest in three years and yields from the beginning of November hovers above 4% per annum. According to ChinaBond, the yield on five-year corporate bonds with the highest rating since the beginning of the month increased by 26 basis points to a three-year high at 5.2%.
In 2018-19 the years, Chinese companies will have to refinance debts amounting to about a trillion dollars amid rising rates, according to the portal Finanz. Thus, among the metallurgical and coal companies of the public sector losing 35%.
As a senior analyst at IC "freedom Finance" Bogdan Zvarich, earlier credit boom was allowed to grow the Chinese economy to a certain point and didn't hold back the people's Bank. The level of debt is not terrible, but the main negative factor are those that are realized in the case of rising borrowing costs when they refinance. The risk of defaults.
"In this situation, I would not say that debt problems can become a serious problem and cause defaults of Chinese companies, however, in the medium term, the amount of debt and the yield growth is a significant risk that could affect not only the Chinese economy but the entire global financial market. If we talk specifically about the impact on Russia, the main factor here will be the dynamics of the energy market", – says Bogdan Zvarich.
According to him, in case of a slowdown in China's economic growth against the background of the collapse of the debt bubble will decrease the forecasts of world consumption of hydrocarbons, which will lead to negative dynamics of oil prices, and hence to the deterioration of the situation in our economy.
It is possible, allows the analyst of "ALOR Broker" Alexey Antonov, because over the past two years on the domestic financial market of China had a lot of non-professional investors and at the first sign of correction will they begin to sell, the result might be a panic. It will lead to the collapse of the indexes. But still, the global crisis of fuel is not enough.
In addition, the analyst said, since the previous crisis (2008) developed and developing countries have accumulated something that can be called amazing immunity to risk: the world economy is growing rapidly, despite razbalansirovat monetary policies of developed countries. For example, the ECB is not going to raise rates, Japan is not going to raise rates, but the fed has already begun a cycle of increasing. "The relative cheapness of energy, in my opinion, fuels this growth, - says Alexei Antonov - plus after the crisis, the core countries tightened their fiscal policy. It is economic factors that indicate that, quite possibly, the developed countries plus China at all waiting for the "Golden five years", that is, stable economic growth in the next five years."
On the other hand, points out Alex Antonov, the world has changed politically and we can assume that it is in China amid a sharp loss of income a large number of people in the event of a collapse of the financial markets could evolve into some kind of separatist movement, which until that moment seemed impossible. All great changes in developed countries are now linked to the themes that emerge regions, by analogy with Catalonia, which Express a different stance from the Federal government, and for the first time in several decades, this position takes the weight.
A "fuel" for such instability a lot of the repression in Saudi Arabia, a nuclear confrontation between the DPRK and the United States, United Kingdom, with its contradictions in terms of withdrawal from the EU. One of the triggers of change can be the US withdrawal from the agreement with Iran on its nuclear program — it would seem that a few local story, but it could destabilize the region, and then the neighboring regions, says the analyst.
Anna Koroleva
Tags: China , Exchange