On evaluation by experts of the RAND, prospects of development of situation around Iraq
Material posted: -Publication date: 22-01-2001

The analysis of program documents of the new administration demonstrated that American interests in the Persian Gulf region in the next four years the new President will only increase, due to the reluctance of the US to release out of control the situation in this oil-rich area. This is primarily due to the precarious situation of the world oil market after a sharp fall in prices in late 2000 and the trend to higher oil prices.

This is evidenced by the decision on reduction of quotas on oil production by 5% from February 1, 2001 adopted at the meeting of OPEC countries. Such fluctuations in the world oil market adversely affects the US economy that was presented in late 2000, when the Clinton administration was forced to resort to strategic stocks of raw materials. In this situation Iraq need in the global market of crude oil, but only as obedient to the artist, and not a wayward player.

In this connection it is appropriate to provide estimates of internal and foreign political situation around Iraq, these experts RAND – a think tank of the US administration, on the eve of the presidential elections. Similar estimates are that in the last decade, no military strikes, economic sanctions and political isolation have failed to force the Iraqi dictator to abandon ambitions for regional domination, to destroy his capacity to build weapons of mass destruction, Kuwait to reimburse the cost incurred during the aggression of damage, and also to force other international requirements.

However, it is noted that over the past 25 years Hussein, however, was the first subordinate to foreign pressure when it became directly threaten the Foundation of government: the vast internal security apparatus necessary for its long rule of the Iraqi government. This device includes a selection of military and paramilitary organizations: the Republican guard and Special Republican guard, intelligence and security, whose ranks filled with loyal to Saddam. Concludes that military strikes, economic sanctions and civil unrest affect the behavior of Saddam Hussein, when they directly threatened the privileged position of the Iraqi elite, which can serve later as a basis for the planning of such actions.

In the analytical paper prepared by the RAND experts on issues of the Persian Gulf, it is emphasized that if in the future the US wants to subdue Saddam Hussein, the Washington should build its policy in the region in three main areas: (1) to save the current state of a long economic sanctions and military blockade, to contain the regional ambitions of Saddam; (2) systematically to strike back against the elite, military and security forces whenever Hussein refuses to produce for inspection his stock of WMD, but also strictly follow the other obligations of the United Nations; (3) to support the Iraqi opposition with weapons, training, intelligence sharing, diplomatic support and the provision of security zones in neighbouring States in the event of failure of the operation.

Especially it is emphasized that the opposition must not win (as in this case, the development will be difficult to predict), but have to make Hussein more susceptible to coercive measures. To realize such three-aspect strategy, the United States must find the political will to wage a prolonged military action, while Washington must prepare the allies and the American public to the possibility of numerous victims among the Iraqis as Hussein has demonstrated a willingness to participate in the war with weapons of mass destruction to ensure that he will destroy opponents by any means, even if it means destroying his supporters.

Also indicates that the Arab Emirates is the most concerned about this problem, because it is the state most dependent on Western military assistance in terms of the threat from Iran and Iraq. The RAND experts noted that some changes in U.S. policy could reduce the vulnerability of American forces in the region, but all these changes will lead to solutions that can limit the effectiveness of the armed forces or significantly not coincide with the goals of U.S. national policy. Among these changes are called the following: (1) promotion of political and economic reforms that reduce the popularity of hostile regional governments; (2) to reduce the number of American troops in the region posting more response units outside the region, especially in Turkey, as well as reducing the time to deploy them and increase their level of firepower; (3) to encourage European governments to sharing of regional leadership, but in terms of fulfilment of certain commitments on managing the situation in the region; (4) strengthen diplomatic partnership between the United States and regional governments, sharing detailed intelligence information and forming a United front against common threats; (5) increase military contacts between the United States and regional governments, with the aim of improving the produced intelligence and deepen cooperation in the region.

From the foregoing it can be concluded that the struggle for the oil fields of Iraq will stimulate on the one hand acceleration processes in the world community aimed at lifting sanctions against Iraq, and with another – will enhance the intensification of the struggle for power inside the country, which will be strongly stimulated and encouraged by the American administration. This suggests that the development of events surrounding Iraq, in the near future, will be in full compliance with develop in the U.S. concept of "strategic information warfare". The purpose of such a war is not military in control of events in any region of the world by applying the methodology of "The day after next ..." (the Russian equivalent of the reflexive control), allowing to predict development of situation and to manage it by forming appropriate information control actions. The application of the methodology is based on creating an adequate model of the object of informational influence (in this case, it is the Iraqi government) through mass data collection, analyses of the VPR on a separate provocative steps, etc. to conduct such actions indicate the last message, about the alleged deteriorating health of the Iraqi leader. The purpose of such campaigns is to identify the international community's response to such developments. There is information about that would supposedly have taken place the conflict between the sons of Saddam Hussein: Adeem and Kaseem. Aggregate analysis of such events considered by a number of experts as the beginning of the special information operations secret services of some States on non-military change of leadership and political course of Iraq.

Thus, we can conclude that, according to the first statements by the new American administration about the possibility of reducing American military presence in various regions of the world and change some geopolitical priorities, the American specialists in the field of information warfare feel enough power for non-military management further developments in the world.

In this situation, an open military aggression of the USA and great Britain against Iraq is unlikely. However, should see increased action on non-military bias of the Iraqi leadership and the change of the political course of the country. As shows the analysis of the political situation in Iraq, the information impact on Iraqi society for the purpose of discrediting Saddam Hussein and foment internal conflict, ineffective due to high popularity of the leader, which suggests that before his elimination, substantial change will not occur.

However, the possible death of the Iraqi leader may result in a crisis situation, the most propitious for a hidden control actions aimed at changing the political course of the country.

Tags: USA