The decline of US influence — the great global story of our age
Material posted: Publication date: 02-01-2018
Daniel Kahneman (Daniel Kahneman), who received the Nobel prize in Economics for what changed our view of human motivation, once said, "Nobody ever made a decision because of some numbers. They need a story." It equally applies to countries and to individuals. Countries have always focused on the larger international story. What is today's global story?

Over the decades an important part of the picture of the world was the idea of the cold war. Almost every state had acted or reacted to the actions in the context of this ideological, political and military struggle. Then came 1989, came the collapse of communism. For the next twenty years, the dominant direction was the discovery of the world — globalization — as the country fought for the right to become the new sought-after markets and Western democratic capitalism seemed inevitable, aided by the power and authority of the United States. The September 11 attacks was the unexpected shock that negatively affected this idealized picture of the world, and for some time, it seems, the course of history was determined Islamist terrorism. But terrorism was the force powerful enough and limited to become a large-scale global history.

So what is today's global story? I would say that the main trend today is the decline of American influence. Not the decline of American power — economic and military relations still remains unsurpassed, and a decrease in its desire and ability to use this power to shape the world. The current administration apparently intends to nullify all the greatest achievements of the United States — as it does in the case with the world trade organization — or simply not interested in developing the global agenda. Donald trump will be the first for almost a hundred years of a President who at the end of his first year in power would not suit a government dinner for a foreign head of state.

And this downturn in the global influence of the United States have been forced to adapt other countries.

This month, the foreign Minister of Germany, Sigmar Gabriel (Sigmar Gabriel) stated that "the most important changes affecting our Western world and moreover the world as a whole" caused "the current failure of the United States under the leadership trump from his role as a reliable guarantor of multilateralism". These changes, he said, "contribute to the acceleration of the transformation of the world order... it increases the risk of trade wars, arms races and armed conflicts".

According to Gabriel, in this situation to Europe, the question arises almost the very existence of the continent. After the Second World war, he says, "Europe was an American project, conceived expressly for the benefit of the United States. However, the current US administration sees Europe today is very restrained, considering the partners as competitors, and sometimes even sees them, to put it mildly, economic rivals". He urged Europe to take their destiny in their own hands and to disassociate itself from US foreign policy.

Pay attention at the June speech of the Minister of foreign Affairs of Canada Christi Freeland (Chrystia Freeland), in which she thanked the United States for what they are for 70 years managed international system. However, she strongly stated that under the administration trump the American leadership of the system came to an end.

Meanwhile, the Chinese President, XI Jinping, spoke in October at the XIX Congress of the Communist party, and from his speech it became clear that he recognizes these new realities. "The international position of China, its reputation has increased as never before," he said. And the country "is forging a new path to ensure that other developing countries have achieved modernization." XI Jinping announced a "new era... in which China comes to the fore and makes an increasingly significant contribution, working for the benefit of mankind." In his previous speeches, he boldly declared that China will become a new guarantor of the global trading order.

So, this is a global story of our time. The country that created today's international system protecting her and watching over the observance of its principles, withdraws and goes into isolation, caring only about themselves and their interests. Europe is another important supporter and protector of open and based on rules the world — not able to act decisively on the world stage with any clear vision or goal and still obsessed with the fate of his own continental project. Filling the vacuum of power, many small and illiberal powers — Turkey, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia — rushed forward, aiming to take leading positions in their regions. But only China really has the necessary courage and strategic skill to potentially determine what will be the next Chapter in the history of our era.

10 years ago I described "the post-American world", which appears not because of the decline of the United States, as a result of the "rise of the rest". This world really begins, as other countries prosper. But the process of these changes sharply accelerated in the result of the reckless and dangerous the administration's decision to trump to opt out of the global influence of the United States — effect, which had to achieve over 70 years. How could write on Twitter, the President is "Sad."


Tags: USA