The processes taking place in the vast region of the Middle East, the state of security and stability in the countries of these regions are important for the implementation of primary geopolitical and strategic objectives of the Russian Federation. Due to its geopolitical position, the presence of States with different and competing interests, active influence of extra-regional actors, the region for decades was one of the most unstable parts of the world.
In this regard, in the light of developments in the study of the East by Russian-speaking experts is one of the main tasks. An outstanding military figure and scientist, famous orientalist A. E. Snesarev (1865-1937) in his work devoted to this subject, said: the middle East since the beginning of the XIX century occupies everyone's attention, as comprising the territory of the approaches to India .
If you look at history, the greater middle East (WBO) was originally called the Middle East including the Arabian peninsular and the Eastern Mediterranean. But at the end of the twentieth century the situation has radically changed. Still concept has greatly narrowed the scope of the study of this region due to its expansion over the same time frame.
Large modern middle East includes not only the territory adjacent to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Arabian Peninsula, but also the peripheral area adjacent to the Black and Caspian seas, i.e. Asia Minor, the Caucasus, and Central Asia that seek to spread their influence Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Fig.1 .
Figure 1. The Greater Middle East
It should be noted, A. E. Snesarev about this in his studies of the East said: Which countries, for example, are in the Middle East, where do I start? Enter our Turkestan, Khiva, Bukhara, Tibet, Kashgaria, Pamir, Afghanistan, Eastern Persia, Baluchistan, India, where Turkestan, Khiva, Bukhara and part of the Pamir now consists of modern Central Asia .
For several decades separate parts of this vast region the greater middle East are one of the most unstable regions of the world, which became a stronghold of terrorism and extremism. Their impact is not only terror and instability in the States, but efforts to transform a world region, with further destabilization of the neighboring areas. It should also be noted that the countries of this region with the exception of its Central Asian component is one of the most militarized countries in the world. Key indicators of militarization and military spending in absolute terms, the countries of the region are the leaders among developing countries and for some indicators ahead of the developed countries. This is due to the combination of two factors:
- High conflict potential;
- The presence of large hydrocarbon resources, which attract the interests of world powers.
High potential of conflicts in the region formed along the line of a military conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, the Arab-Israeli conflict, ethnic and religious conflict in Yemen, the military-political tensions around Iran, the presence of territorial disputes between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey, the unresolved Kurdish question as well as the presence of U.S. military bases in the region.
According to some experts, Israel, Turkey and Iran. In the region of the Middle East are the most militarily powerful States in the region, which is due to the existence of a significant number of new types of weapons, high level of training of personnel of the army, and Israel is still the possibility of operational obtaining additional military aid from the United States.
Superiority at the regional level of the state of Israel is based on the implementation of the fundamental principles of Israeli foreign policy and national security. This, above all, increasing the qualitative military superiority of the armed forces over the neighboring Arab countries (even in the context of normalization of relations in the region), including the development of arms and military technologies to strike at enemies far from the borders with Israel
The high conflict potential of the region along with its militaryconnection, also based on the presence of large resources of strategic importance. The presence of large resources in the middle East, but given the occurrence in this vast region and Central Asia, it should be noted that the reason for the interest of regional and world powers is the fact that the country of the specified North-Eastern part (the periphery) of the greater Middle East have the world's largest reserves of natural resources (especially Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). It is a rich oil field in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, gas in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, base metals and uranium in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, rare earth metals in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, gold in Uzbekistan.
From the political point of view, the expansion of the zone of the greater Middle East the countries of Central Asia from a geopolitical point of view allows to penetrate this vast region in the Central part of Eurasian continent, to come into contact with countries which are potential centers of the emerging multipolar world, such as Russia, China, countries of having nuclear weapons, Pakistan and India.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union post-Soviet countries included in the regional space, WBO were also areas of rivalry between world and regional powers seeking to turn the resulting economic and political vacuum of the post-Soviet space in the zone of its geopolitical influence. Active participants in this process were the United States, Russia, China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
However, within the peripheral space of the greater Middle East is the formation of new centers of power, which include Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, with clear understanding of its role in regional politics and seek to implement major economic projects between themselves with the subjects of non-regional policies. Such projects primarily include the transport corridor "North-South" that will connect India, Iran, and possibly Pakistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia, providing an output for the WBO countries in Europe, and is also part of the Chinese New silk road project [4,5].
Problems of regional security are largely based on the ongoing rivalry between the leading regional powers for political, economic and military leadership in the middle East. First of all, this statement applies to countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Therefore, based on the above, it is of interest review of the policies of regional players in determining the geopolitical dynamics of the region: Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Regional policy of Turkey
The geopolitical position of Turkey, located at the crossroads of European and Asian continents and their respective cultural and civilizational platforms, provides the country opportunities for development of relations with different States and peoples. Throughout its history, the Turkish ruling elite changed its foreign policy preferences, giving priority to the Eastern, the Western areas, that did not mean, however, rejection inherent in the Turkish establishment of the idea of "middle state" and "the bridge between Europe and Asia".
The beginning of the XXI century became a period of growth of diplomatic activity of Turkey in the greater middle East caused by the reasons for the political and international character.
Strong economic growth, demographic development and relative political stability in Turkey has created opportunities for increasing international influence, providing the necessary resource base, which, of course, aroused the desire to allow the international position of the country in line with its inner potential.
However, this process prevented the "Kurdish factor", the presence of which Ankara was forced to admit. History of the Kurdish people in Turkey is not simple. Without going back centuries, we note that the Kurds with the arms in the 1920s, together with the Turks defended the national interests of the state, created by K. Ataturk. But, using the Kurds to fight for independence and territorial integrity of the country, the Kemalist elite has forgotten about their interests and effectively put them out of the field of their cultural identity, based on the organization of the Republic the idea of political citizenship, and not ethnicity, proclaiming national policy the policy of assimilation of the Kurds. But after the beginning of armed resistance to the Kurds in 1984 and the emergence of a de facto independent Kurdistan within a Federal Iraq in 2003, it became pointless to deny the existence of the Kurdish factor, hoping that the Kurds themselves assimilyatsiya among the peoples of Turkey, Iranian, Iran, and Syria, having lost their national identity. This suggests that the Turkish political regime failed to solve the Kurdish problem. With the beginning of the armed struggle of the Kurdistan workers party (PKK) for national independence through the creation of greater Kurdistan, the Kurdish identity began to take shape, influenced by the writings of A. öcalan .
The Kurds themselves see the combination of the words "Big Kurdistan" single state of the Kurdish nation, which is intended to combine 30-40 million ethnic group. The construction involves a Large Kurdistan national liberation and the consolidation of people in a single state of the Kurds living in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey (Fig. 2, 3).
Fig. 2. Boundaries, which discusses the project in greater Kurdistan.
On the background of the Kurdish problem deserves consideration the interest of the Turkish policy of double standards in relation to the events of the "Arab spring", which Ankara has tried to use to strengthen its influence in the greater middle East, supporting the protests of the Islamic "Ummah". Turkish leaders regarded these events as the expression of legitimate demands of the peoples of the pending socio-political and economic change. According to official Ankara, the reforms in the countries of the middle East region, meeting the conditions prevailing in the world after the end of the cold war, should start in 1990-ies. But this does not apply to the solution of the Kurdish question.
Fig. 3. The territory of the Kurds in the middle East.
It revealed the double standards in the politics of Ankara. Opposing the establishment of an independent Kurdish state, the Turkish government, at the same time, supported the "Arab spring", claiming that on the side of the peoples and not regimes. The premise is based on the assertion that from the perspective of Ankara, the Kurds are not a separate nation, but only "mountain Turks".
Affected the Kurdish issue and on the change in foreign policy of Turkey in relation to Syria. From the closest military and economic ally of Turkey in the region, Syria has become its main enemy. In return, Ankara broke ties with Damascus. September 21, 2011 at a press conference in new York, Erdogan said: "I stopped the dialogue with the Syrian authorities. We never wanted this, but unfortunately, they forced us to take such a decision." 24 Sep Turkish ships seized a Syrian ship with weapons, the sender of which was Iran. The Syrian side is called the foreign policy of Ankara "a bad case of schizophrenia," which glowed bilateral relations.
In the fall of 2011 has worsened Turkey's relations with its Eastern neighbor Iran. Turkey confirmed its consent to the deployment on its territory of a radar defense system the United States, to be deployed in the South-East of the country and against Iran. Tehran has warned Turkey that the installation of this radar station will lead to increased tension in relations between the two countries.
The foregoing suggests that Ankara's foreign policy has seriously complicated the geopolitical situation in the middle East. On the one hand, Turkey is a NATO member and a strategic partner of the United States. On the other hand, Turkey has positioned itself as the enemy of the best friend of USA in the region – Israel and at the same time, wary of the enemy of Israel and the United States – Iran. All this demonstrates that in the world there are no permanent enemies and permanent allies .
Turkey hoped that the new authorities of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia will take a sample of the Turkish political system. But solutions of this project lies a fundamental difficulty: the Turkish and Arab understanding of the role of political Islam is not equal. In Turkey, political Islam is a force of modernization, the Turkish business elite is formed in an Islamic environment businessmen who associate Islam with progress and actively participating in the economic and socio-political development of the country. In the Arab view, Islam is not modernization, and conservative strength, guarding the foundations of traditional society.
So expect the achievement by Turkey of its largest and most ambitious foreign policy goals and to assume that Turkey will become the leading power in the greater Middle East is not sufficient reason. At the same time, Western countries, first and foremost, the United States, will have to reckon with an independent foreign policy of Turkey and its growing influence in the region.
Turkey today from the state politically, economically and militarily dependent on the West, gradually trying to transform into a state exercising independent from its Western partners, foreign and domestic policy. In this regard, the application of Turkey for regional leadership, despite all the complexities of the geopolitical situation in the region sound quite serious and have a real basis by relying on one of the strongest armies in the greater Middle East, nowadays is one of the important factors affecting the regional military-political situation .
Regional policy of Iran
In the greater middle East Iran plays a dominant role due to an important military-strategic position, being both middle Eastern, Caucasian, Central Asian, washed by the waters of the Caspian sea, Persian and Oman gulfs of the Indian ocean. Currently, all painful points of region, and world politics are somehow connected with Iran. Therefore, ethnic and religious, military and economic problems and problems of refugees and drug trafficking, terrorism and separatism can be solved effectively only in cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI).
Iran as a source of hydrocarbon natural resources of global significance has a paramount geopolitical importance. According to the data of 2006, the proven oil reserves in Iran are about 10% of world reserves. For the Iranian oil fields characterized by high performance and low cost of production. Iran ranks second in oil production among OPEC countries and ranks second in the world (after Russia) natural gas .
After the revolution of 1979, Iran has adopted the ideas of regional hegemony, which began to implement more radical Shiites ousted Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. When Khomeini, the idea of a worldwide Islamic revolution transformed into the domination of the Shiite Persians at the regional level, that is, primarily in the middle East. Moreover, the religious component of this idea is intertwined with a pragmatic nationalist. Gradually pragmatism in the policy of Teheran was to prevail over ideological considerations, primarily in the sphere of unconditional support for fellow Shiites. This is reflected not only in the non-power export the ideas of Islamic revolution and straightforward propaganda of Islamic fundamentalism, but in the pragmatic adjustment of the foreign policy of Iran. (for example, Pro-Armenian position of Iran in the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict).
To achieve its regional goals, Iran continues to use the Shiite factor in the formation of its policy in the greater middle East. Tehran has been providing an extensive support to the Syrian leadership in Syria, the Afghan Shiite Hazaras, in Yemen Shiite rebels – Houthis, supported the Lebanese group "Hezbollah" and Palestinian "Hamas". Iran traditionally oriented members of the Shiite clergy in Iraq, effectively uses Tehran.
For example, throughout the military conflict in Syria, Iran served as one of the important military allies of the government of Bashar al-Assad. Iranian support the legitimate government of Syria was expressed in both economic and military support of Tehran has sent to Syria their units of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps, which helped to achieve a significant advantage during battles for many cities and towns, as well as supplying weapons and ammunition to Shiite formation. It has recently Tehran has started to play an increasing role in Syria, in fact, trying to take control of the fighting a number of vital resources.
The desire of Iran in the war in Syria to take the fighting across the borders of Syria, Iraq and Jordan are fundamentally very important from a geopolitical point of view. This, in turn, connected with Lebanon and to withdraw the possibility of oil transportation to the Mediterranean sea. Of course for US it is fundamentally important to avoid this – so they go on everything if only not to give the allied forces to keep control of the border with Iraq and Jordan."
Despite the persistence of American influence in Afghanistan, Iran continues to influence various political processes in the country, which is proof that Tehran does not intend to abandon the implementation of its regional interests. Iran has enough leverage on various parties, movements and ethnic groups, mainly Tajiks and Hazaras.
Iran is one of the few countries that did not recognize the possibility of the very existence of Israel. This constant holds the Palestinian track of middle East policy of Tehran. Therefore, Iran has not endorsed the international project of the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian crisis called "Road map" developed by Russia, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations. Tehran believes that the possibility of unblocking the middle East peace process could lead to a change in the balance of forces in the region in favor of Iran. Iran is very interested in the fact that, on the one hand, not to isolate itself from participation in key political processes in the middle East (including on the Palestinian issue), the other – to constantly strengthen its presence in the region. Tehran has repeatedly expressed a firm commitment to support the Islamic resistance in South Lebanon and in Palestine, that, in fact, is a kind of method of implementation of Iranian influence in the region. While Iranian-backed armed groups are considered depending on the political orientation of the parties, terrorist, or national liberation .
The main instrument of Iranian policy on the Palestinian-Israeli track of the middle East policy are the armed forces of the Lebanese Hezbollah. According to various estimates, they account for 3-5 thousand people., including in its ranks soldiers of the Iranian revolutionary guards. The relationship of Hezbollah with Iran based on common Shi'ite doctrine and non-recognition of the state of Israel. Iranian assistance to the Lebanese allies is comprehensive: financing, diplomatic and political support, ideological and military training of personnel, supply of arms, military equipment, ammunition and equipment, humanitarian supplies.
It is unlikely in the coming years, Iran's position on the Palestinian-Israeli problem will change. Iran will oppose any agreement on how to resolve the conflict if it is at least to some extent reflects the interests of Israel.
An important factor that initiates the activity of Iran's foreign policy in these areas is that in recent years Iran was in the ring of pockets of instability and conflict in the North is the Armenian – Azerbaijani conflict over Karabakh issue, in the East – the unstable situation in Afghanistan is complicated by the problems of refugees and drug trafficking, in the Persian Gulf is the unresolved affiliation of the disputed Islands in the Strait of Hormuz in the West – Iraqi "node" in varying degrees, affect the interests of Tehran in the South of the Arabian Peninsula – against Saudi Arabia with Shiite rebels.
Revolution in the Arab world at the time, fueled the political and military ambitions of Tehran, and at the same time undermined the power of competitors in the struggle for regional leadership. We can assume that in the event of a major regional conflict a possible scenario for the takeover of Iran parts of Iraq, Bahrain, Oman, which once belonged to the Persian Empire.
Regional policy of Saudi Arabia
The foreign policy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) set out the principles of good neighbourly co-existence, non interference in the internal Affairs of other countries, strengthening and development of ties with Gulf countries and in General with the Islamic world, the principles of cooperation with friendly countries and participation in international and regional organizations.
The Kingdom emphasized positioning itself as a "conservative state", as guided by the ideological rules of Islam, contributing to their dissemination and protection. The religious basis of Saudi policy of stable and contributes to the perception of Saudi Arabia in the outside world as the bearer of "divine mercy" and its mission, especially since there is located the Shrine of Islam. Monarch Saudi Arabia's king bears the title "Servant of the Two Holy mosques" (Mecca and Medina). If in the Kingdom of religion performs the function of ethnic mobilization, then its purpose at the regional scale is the unity of the same "conservative" Arab and Muslim States on religious grounds.
King Faisal at the time, believed that hostile KSA element of the system of international relations was a unit of the forces of communism and Zionism, soldered unity of purpose and puts before itself the task of destruction of Islam and the creation of a permanent threat to the Muslim community. The Islam was painted in the traditional Muslim political thought tone. The world of Islam included the very Arab-Muslim community governed in accordance with Sharia law, "land contract" – i.e., the Western community, with which to build a mutually beneficial relationship, and "land of war" – the camp of the enemies of the Muslims, including the Soviet Union, the United States and their satellites, as well as Israel.
The unprecedented increase in oil prices in the 1970s and early 1980s had at least two important implications for Saudi Arabia. She embarked on a path of rapid modernization and has become the largest donor States to the Arab-Muslim region. This, in turn, led to the appearance of the country numerous enough plebeian "educated class" and turned Saudi Arabia into an important center of regional attraction.
The foreign policy of Saudi Arabia has four main areas of activity, ranked by priority of importance :
– Gulf countries;
– the rest of the Arab world;
– the Islamic world in "Treaty countries" and "countries in war";
– international organizations.
The Gulf States are Saudi Arabia's priority in international politics. This is primarily due to their geographical position, historical links, similarity of governmental and economic systems of the countries of the region. Saudi Arabia proclaims the unity of purpose of the Gulf countries in achieving security, conflict resolution and crisis situations. For these purposes, in 1981 was created the GCC (cooperation Council of Arab Gulf countries). Its members are the six Arab States region: Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia. The purpose of the Association is the promotion of regional cooperation in the economic, social, political and military spheres.
The latest important direction in international politics in Saudi Arabia is development of relations with the international community. In this direction, the CSA seek to be a full member of the world community and trying to properly comply with the duties in accordance with the UN Charter. The main stated goal of the KSA in international politics is the achievement and preservation of peace throughout the world. Kingdom committed itself and urged other countries to transparency and fairness in foreign policy. According to the strategy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia adheres to a right to legitimate self-defence as a fundamental principle of international law. KSA is a member of many international organizations and strives to support, thus, international security.
The Afghan factor in the destabilization of the region of the greater Middle East
Events in the Middle East that have occurred over the last decades, testify to the increasing military conflicts in many countries, among them long-term and continuing destabilization became the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. This is primarily due to certain geopolitical and strategic role of this country in international Affairs.
As noted in their studies of military geographer A. E. Snesarev, the strategic role of Afghanistan is determined by the fact that he was standing on the tracks leading to India. There are three directions: Kandahar, Kabul and Pamir. The Kandahar area has a very large value and begins with the town of Kushka (now Turkmenistan) of all three — this area is the longest but also the most convenient, as it has in the way of barriers and accessible to even the wheel. Kabul direction starts from the Amu Darya to the Hindu Kush through the Salang pass to Kabul and after Suleymanov of the mountains in the valley of the Indus river. The Pamir is extremely difficult, because it has no roads and passes through the mountain system of Pamir and the Hindukush .
The last time the military-political situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated significantly and revived armed forces of the Taliban and other radical organizations fighting against the Kabul government. Apparently, the intensification of religious fundamentalists in Afghanistan caused by including the events in Syria and Iraq. It is known that, despite the American military presence in Afghanistan, government forces of the country was not able to win a complete victory over the Taliban. Moreover, Afghanistan is not only is a revival of the Taliban, but also strengthens the positions of the "Islamic state" (banned in Russia as a terrorist organization).
According to some analysts, Afghanistan represents one of the key goals of the "Islamic state", as the use of its territory as a staging ground subsequently, will allow ISIS to expand its influence in neighboring Central Asian republics, primarily Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
The defeat of the forces of radical Islam in Syria and Iraq and their subsequent displacement to other countries WBO have led to the emergence of ISIL in Afghanistan, creating a threat to countries in the Central Asian region. Will these countries face a well organized and experienced in fighting with the anti-terrorist coalition troops ISIS is current at the date of issue.
An objective analysis of the development of the military-political situation in Afghanistan suggests that in the country there are processes, indicating a qualitative change in the situation, showing another possible complication of the military-political situation, which will threaten the security of the CAR.
In 2018 ISIL has created in Afghanistan two branches in Pashtun and non-Pashtun areas, which operate almost independently from each other, based on the traditionally competing ethnic groups. However, the situation in Afghanistan for LIH was a little different from the situation in Iraq, where groups of radicals was joined by the entire structural units of the former Iraqi army. In Afghanistan, the situation differs radically. There is a huge number of disparate small groups of guerrilla-type 10-20 people, they rarely reach the size of 40-60 people Between these groups there is a constant struggle for leadership, they are quite lively in their orientation that they are fighting under the black flag of ISIS, and tomorrow, if something does not like it, you can be a part of the rival group . In addition, mobilization and organizational mechanisms of proven effectiveness in Syria and Iraq, it was not applicable for the Afghan realities. Therefore, the appearance in Afghanistan of the mass movement under one leadership, similar to what exists in these countries, has not happened yet.
It is quite natural that the emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan alarmed the government of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Even then, a few years before the start of the withdrawal of antiterrorist coalition forces from Afghanistan, in Central Asia talking about the expected growth of the terrorist threat from the Afghan "hotbed of instability".
However, the analysis of the situation shows that this threat can be classified as pending. Currently, the militants accumulate forces in the North of Afghanistan, said that military intervention in the CAS of ISIS troops have not been forthcoming. This can be explained by the fact that in Central Asia there is no broad social base that would support the militants for the establishment of political systems based on Sharia law.
In this regard, it can be assumed that ISIS, as the shock troops of the radical Islamists, will operate in the region by methods other than action in Syria. There will be the recruitment of fighters from among local residents and create opposition to the current regime as a "source of destabilization" socio-political situation. Thus formed the opposition determined to overthrow the current government. It will not be secular-oriented intellectuals "color revolutions" sit abroad or located in the power structures of States and revolutionaries, ready to sacrifice their lives for the construction of a New Caliphate.
To solve this problem the emissaries of ISIS in Central Asia only with hybrid forms and methods of destabilization with the use of strategies of indirect actions and "soft power." The strategy of using "soft power" in this case will be aimed at creating in the minds of the population the following triad: pan-Islamic unity of the Muslim Ummah, the elimination of the illegitimate secular state in Central Asia, followed by the creation of political systems based on Sharia law and the creation of a regional Confederation of Islamic States .
"Soft power" of Islam used by ISIS ideologues to transform the consciousness of the population and the introduction of radical ideas and the legitimization of terrorist methods of political struggle. And this is done by the Islamic propagandists skillfully and purposefully. For this ISIL, as it was practiced in Syria and Iraq, draws all the available resources at their disposal: mass media, social networks, Internet, flyers, lectures in schools, public places and sermons in mosques.
ISIS has established a successful propaganda image of a fighter for the faith in the idealized, romantic light. It's a superhero, rebel and revolutionary, God's servant, soldier of Allah, acts which are pleasing to God. His actions are directed by God to fight the world's evil – the moral decay, the decadence, godlessness, i.e. with all that is present in Western society. ISIS propaganda calling the rebels "a punishing sword of Allah." It is not surprising that it has a strong influence on the minds of young people, and many of them dream to become "superheroes".
However, it should be noted that the radical ideas of ISIS does not fit into the ideology of the Taliban. Between them there are significant differences that do not allow currently to create an effective symbiosis of radical Islam. We should not forget that ISIS is a pan-Islamic organization seeking to create a single political entity, which would include all Muslim countries and territories. To achieve this purpose, this organization is ready to wage Jihad on a global scale. On the contrary, the Taliban is a national etnobotanica movement aimed at the solution of the Afghan problem. Their main goal is to clear Afghanistan from foreign occupation, which involves the immediate withdrawal of all foreign troops from the country.
There are also differences in theology. The Taliban are adherents of a conservative ascetic branches of hanafis, belonging to the Sunni trend in Islam, which is professed by the majority of inhabitants of Afghanistan. The Taliban respect to Sufism – one of the areas of classical Islamic philosophy, and therefore generally try to avoid sectarian fighting with Shiites. All of this is unacceptable to the ideologues of ISIS. The important point is that the LIH without due respect refers to the founder of the Taliban Mullah Omar, who the Taliban call the Emir of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
In this regard, the theologians of the Taliban issued fatwas (religious edicts) against the legality of the existence of ISIS and the spread of their ideology in Afghanistan, where the fight against ISIS is considered justified as it is conducted on the basis of religious differences. The Taliban leadership urging ISIL not to create a "parallel jihadist front" in Afghanistan. They warned they would be forced to defend their control of the country. In this regard, the Taliban has created special groups to fight ISIS.
To the above should be added as noted in their studies of military geographer A. E. Snesarev: "Afghanistan itself is no is... If this country and it is possible to acquire, to hold her in my arms very hard on the school administration and the school order will require so much resources that the country of the spending will never return her to return them not because of what" .
In conclusion, it should be noted that two centuries have passed since then, as the success of the Egyptian expedition of Napoleon marked the advent of the modern Middle East. It took about 100 years after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, a century after the end of the era of colonialism and three decades after the end of the cold war. Coming to the end of the era of American dominance in the middle East, but not the expectations of the West that the region will live according to the model of Western democracy and follow the lead of the US and its allies. Most likely the middle East will go through, he ordained historical destiny. He will be the center of origin of the future world order, "the melting pot" policy of the world powers.
Thus, it should be noted:
- While maintaining the influence of the United States on regional political and economic processes, Washington will confront a powerful non-regional players: China, Russia, Turkey and Iran, defending its interests in the region;
– Iran, if the newly imposed sanctions will not weaken the country, will be anxious to move towards the gradual transformation of it into a regional power, with definite plans to change in the political situation in the region. This country with vast resources, moral and military-economic potential, now represents a serious factor of influence in the greater middle East;
– Iraq will be in a certain state of degradation and chaos, followed by violence on religious grounds. In the short term in this country to maintain US influence and Iran.
– Islam will remain the basis of political and cultural life of States WBO. The growth of the ideological influence of Iran in the region will increase tensions between Sunnis and Shiites, creating problems in countries such as Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria, and Saudi Arabia;
- The Central Asian region in the segment of the greater Middle East and will remain so far the only stable region. The countries of the region will enhance the integration potential in solving the regional challenges.
- The development of the military-political situation in Afghanistan leads to the conclusion that the Afghan problem is far from a peaceful resolution, and the risk remains of its transition to crisis state, which then can directly affect the security situation in the Central Asian States.
Despite the opening of the Afghan branch of ISIS, mobilization, organizational and other mechanisms of proven effectiveness in Arab society was not applicable in the context of Afghan realities, so the appearance in Afghanistan of mass organized movement, the same that exists in Arab countries, it is hardly possible in the near future.
However, as the light of developments it can be assumed that the coordination of joint efforts of Russia, countries of Central Asian region and other countries – CSTO members can contain and pre-empt the threat of the spread of radical Islam in the Central African Republic and in the Muslim regions of Russia.
The solution to the above-mentioned problems will contribute to the national security of the Russian Federation in the near and medium term. In this regard, it should be assumed that hybrid war against Russia and its allies did not stop and in a period of relative "warming" of relations with the West in the early 1990s, currently it has taken a bitter shape in the course of the Russian independent foreign policy corresponding to its national interests.
These principles define the essential contours of the world order of the greater Middle East in the twenty-first century. It is natural to assume that only in a multipolar peace-building countries in the region will have the opportunity to become independent actors in international politics in accordance with their geopolitical and civilizational potentials principles.
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Poghosyan D. K.
Tags: A.Snesariev's competition , Near East , winner work of a competition of A.E.Snesarev