Beginning this spring in Iran became a high point in political intrigue. Don't have time to lie down troubles associated with the next resignation of the Minister of foreign Affairs Javad Zarif, how to change the head of the judiciary of the country. Still, Sadeq Amoli Larijani, representative of the powerful political and family clan, suddenly resigned. And in its place Ali Khamenei has appointed Ibrahim Raisi. Which after just a few days was chosen and one of the key positions in the political system of Iran – Deputy Chairman of the Assembly of experts, a body that not only elects the Supreme leader of the country, but also other controlled. And if the story of the resignation of the Z. seems like more of a farce than intrigue, with the rapid entry of Ibrahim Raisi in the highest echelons of government in the Islamic Republic, things are much more serious. So that the basic version of the observers was the suggestion of the beginning of the Supreme leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of operation "Successor" with the new head of the judiciary as the main character.
Intrigue adds the fact that, as it turned out later, the resignation of Sadeq Amoli Larijani, Ali Khamenei received after the report has been reviewed by Raisi status of the judiciary and improving its efficiency. But there is every reason to assume that the actual content of the document was much broader, deeper and sharper his name. And required a rapid response, including on the staffing issue. More recently, many observers believed that the presidential elections of 2017 second – 38% of preferential votes – a single candidate from Iranian conservatives, it was the peak of his political career Raisi. And his public career is over, and the future and most likely the prospect is to stay in the "second row", exchanging years (for the present who really runs Iran, the man 1960 year of birth is quite young) slow promotion in the hierarchy.
Perhaps in other times we would have. But not now, when most of the Iranian establishment imbued with the idea that "internal threats to the Islamic Republic is more dangerous than external". The idea that first became popular in the narrow circle of leaders of the office of the Supreme leader and commanders of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps in 2005 and in 2017 have been all over the country loud and temperament Ibrahim Raisi announced during his election campaign.
The margin of the Islamic Republic in the current difficult times is stored only in the case where there is a social contract between the authorities of the country and its population. "We are ready to bear hardships associated with external pressure on our country, – says, including on protests in the country, the Iranian people. – But only if the burden of this pressure and the resulting deprivation will be distributed at all. In full compliance with the principles of social justice proclaimed in the course of the Islamic revolution".
And that's just with the observance of this justice in Iran now, and especially during the second term, Hassan Rouhani, the situation is, to put it mildly, dysfunctional. Sanctions will hurt everyone, except for the notorious "North of Tehran", Iranian "rublevki". A "case of the meat mafia", "the case of bituminous of king", "Delhi Sultan coins" and escalating in recent days, the scandal around "Affairs of the petrochemical commercial company (PCC)" show that corruption has struck the authorities much deeper than is commonly believed. Even the "founding fathers" of the Islamic Republic, the "old fighters", and especially their numerous offspring and other family members do not have corruption and greed no immunity, "take" willingly, at the maximum, with some even pathological passion.
Neither of the current presidential administration nor the judiciary is with this epidemic of corruption and greed had nothing but grandstanding and announcing the next, a tough and uncompromising "campaign to counter" – with this I can not do. Reform is definitely needed. And "conservatives" despite the fact that they are written about, they agree. But how to hold them and how to monitor their progress in such conditions? Neither the will nor particular desire for this part of the ruling elite for this. But Raisi is. As there is strong support among those who really runs Iran – office of the Supreme leader, a significant part of the clergy and the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps.
In the circle of confidants of Supreme leader Ali Khamenei, though not on the first roles, Ibrahim Raisi included since the early 80's- from the first years of the Islamic revolution. And with every new appointment – from the leadership of the judiciary to control one of the richest religious trusts in the country, Astan Quds Razavi, in fact, holding cost in a few tens of billions of dollars, managing mines, textile factories, pharmaceutical factory, and even major oil and gas companies is the confidence only grew. Reaching its peak now, when the Supreme leader began to actively promote it in the highest echelons of power. Of course, on any of the points of the trajectory of the current takeoff Ibrahim Raisi await its dangers. In the end, even plans Ali Khamenei against him are not a guarantee that he will become the new Supreme leader at the crucial moment, everything can change, and the arrangements in the fight for the power of yesterday's allies will forget.
But this does not negate the fact that Raisi today proposed society and the Iranian elite as a possible new leader of the country. And you will be able to gain a foothold in this role – answer today in the affirmative, no one can. But the chances of him, of course.
Pankratenko I. N.
Tags: Iran , Russia , strategy