China is: the threat is stronger than hope
Material posted: Pankratenko Igor N.Publication date: 06-10-2019
Seventy years ago, on 1st October 1949, Beijing was declared the establishment of people's Republic of China. Since then, the time of China from a poor starving country has become the second superpower. The path was long, complex, and interesting, but it's far from over. And in this way Beijing face many threats and traps.

China as the giant liner luxurious and majestically floats in the open ocean of international politics, to win them a world previously unexplored spaces and dominate at the intersections of trade routes and economic arteries.

In full accordance with Chinese tradition - without haste, but steadily - creating infrastructure 'delivery' of economy and politics of the PRC to "consumers" — in other countries. It's called "initiative of the belt and the Road". But icebergs at the rate "of the liner China" prowling so much, that maneuver among them becomes increasingly difficult. And every encounter threatens Beijing disaster.

As usual, the threat to Beijing, there are inside and outside, and sometimes it is difficult to determine where they are serious, because here too, everything is interconnected. So let's go "from the stove", from internal threats.

Interethnic conflicts do not threaten China. Xinjiang, with all the drama and the urgency of the topic, close attention to it externally, a serious problem still is not. The question of the effectiveness of the methods, which comprehensively uses now Beijing, not worth it, they will work. Now you just need a certain amount of time to this, everything from camps for re-education, assimilation policies and the ruthless suppression of separatists to all sorts of benefits to those who have embarked on the path of cooperation with the administration, the combination of carrots and sticks - has borne fruit.

crying crying Uyghur

In my opinion, the problems of Xinjiang, the PRC leadership could solve much faster - but the fact of the matter is that Beijing is deliberately not in a hurry in this matter, preferring to wait for the "ripe fruit" he will fall into his hands. About as he acts, by the way, in Tibet and in Hong Kong, that time puts everything in its place, and the healthy part of the opposition is beginning to understand that outside the "Chinese microcosm" they are doomed and useless. Well, the "sick" part of the opponents, is not amenable to reassurance, Beijing cracked down fast, tough and revealing.

But this good news about internal problems for China, in fact, end. Because, the higher the country's level of development and welfare of the population, the more rampant consumerism, though, to be more precise - potreblyatstvo, the stronger the worship of the "Golden calf" with the departure from the traditional principle of "reasonable sufficiency" and the growth of corruption.

The executions of officials and exorbitant terms for them is not to eradicate, the Chinese government has long been aware of such a bitter truth. But continues to shoot, and to plant. But this is somewhat different - weeding of the steering link sanitation from the already quite "lost coast", for enforcing compliance with the principle of "reasonable sufficiency". Took - don't forget to give the rest of the country, that drive in the head unit periodic mass purges.

Jack MA, billionaire and Communist party member - an example of what the lesson is absorbed. But a provincial party official, who recently seized during the search of 13 tons (!!!) gold in bars, a metric such as Jack MA is in the minority. Whether the growing number of such as he, or reproduce rapidly such as "Golden party" - the big question. Same as the rapid development of ugly traits in consumer sentiment of ordinary Chinese people - so they and China for their "wow-impulses" in the subject of "expensive-rich" sell, was already, you know the precedent in the recent history in one country, where also rules of the Communist party.

Jack MA and 13 tons of gold

And, of course, the economy. The situation remains alarmingly uncertain. The main economic challenges are still considered the exhaustion of the extensive model development and the rapid approach of China to the "middle income trap". Can be overcome, but only by lifting the economy to a qualitatively higher level through further development of market mechanisms and growth of domestic consumption, promote innovation, changes in industry structure in favor of high-tech sector. Over the past seven years on this account was made many proposals, plans and programmes. However, the way to set goals turned out to be long and winding, just like in the 70s, in the early reforms of Deng Xiaoping.

XI Jinping, like Deng, "crossing the river groping for the stones". And again - it's in the correct ways and methods used, neither the population, nor, more importantly, for the party elites are not obvious. Meanwhile, the pace of economic growth significantly slowed. The gap in levels of development of theoretical research and key technologies between China and Western countries continues to persist.

And most importantly - they now have to act in a more unfavorable international situation than it was 40 years ago. Then the American establishment and an ingenious negotiator Henry Kissinger still harbored the illusion that Beijing will become part of the American world system, will become part of the logic of global development, which was created by the United States.

Hard pragmatist Donald trump no such illusions single dime. And "slow down China" in all possible and impossible ways - the main foreign policy goal that he appointed to himself even when just trying on to the presidency. The famous "let's Make America great again!" there is another side. "Point out China is his place and he'll drive there." Because otherwise, for the United States in the twenty-first century - no matter what the name is not worn by the occupant of the White house.

Si also crosses the river, feeling the stones

And as opportunities for "braking" of the PRC, Washington and its allies enough. How, in fact, those same allies. Friends against someone - a favorite occupation of state leaders. Against "Chinese expansion" with the United States - even more so. India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Vietnam and it is only in Asia. With maximum efficiency, military-political, economic, reconnaissance and sabotage methods.

And, of course, with the use of information resources. Here, by the way, in exactly the anniversary of the PRC arrived, fresh data from the international surveys of the Pew Research Center about how "you belong to China." Nothing unexpected — most negative attitude or with hostility. Moreover, the overall situation is deteriorating.

60% of respondents from the US and 67% of canadian residents with respect to China "with hostility" (unfavorable), which is the lowest result since 2007 don't like China and most of Europe: 70% of residents and 53% of Spain also don't like China.

Generally, for Europe, the fall of sympathy for China, compared to last year is huge, especially worsened attitudes in the Netherlands and the UK. But in Asia a little better. To China have a negative attitude 85% of Japanese, 63% of the population of the Republic of Korea, 57% of Australians. 54% of Filipinos are looking at China with hostility.

Where to treat him well? For example, in Russia (71%). Good - in Ukraine (57%). Yes, even in Nigeria (70%). That is, in the eyes of a huge number of people on the globe China is "toxic" for business and for public opinion. This is a huge failure of China's self-positioning, with far-reaching consequences. It is the collapse of the illusion of Beijing about what the rest of the world enthusiastically welcomed the Chinese initiative. At the same time - a diagnosis that these initiatives will meet a lot of resistance.

Forty years, China is persistently pushed to the status of the second superpower, was filled with hard work, privations, mistakes and difficulties. Apparently, to maintain this status up to 80-anniversary of the PRC, Beijing will not get easier...

Igor Pankratenko


Tags: assessment , China