In September, 2019 in the Russian state University of oil and gas (national research UNIVERSITY) named after I. M. Gubkin took place a creative meeting of students and teachers from the Russian scout-illegal immigrant, Colonel of service of external investigation in resignation, leading scientist and expert in the field of foreign and defense policy Andrey Olegovich Bezrukov.
The event was organized by the faculty of integrated security TEK. The meeting was opened by the Dean of the faculty Sergey Grinyaev, who noted that the ability to understand the problems of the economy and international politics is an important specialist in the area of security, stressing that the faculty continues to work on preparation of experts with unique competences and are able to act effectively in unusual, including crisis situations.
During the conversation, Andrey Bezrukov focused on international cybersecurity, geopolitics, analyzed the global security threats of the Russian Federation in the conditions of strategic uncertainty. He elaborated on the cyclic changes occurring currently in the economy, politics and social sphere, given the forecast for the economic and political situation in the world.
"From time to time, the manifest crises, these crises are objective because the world is constantly changing, technology is changing and pull the economy. Changing politics, changing society, it's cyclical processes, Kondratieff cycles. Cyclical changes are particularly evident in the transition of society into a new technological phase. There Kondratieff cycle of several generations. We are now on a downward Kondratieff cycle. The rising cycle – the economy transitions to a new technological base. There is a growth in the economy: rising wages, new jobs. And if the situation goes down when technology does not produce as much money as much wealth as needed, and new technologies are not yet ready, then everything changes and the processes of social discontent, and now we're down almost to the end here of this Kondratieff cycle, fall to the bottom, and later will climb, but even 5 years of this lift will not. The economic crisis of 2008, for example, such crises happen about every ten to fifteen years, this small crises, but the cycles associated with large changes come once in 50-60 years, and sometimes it's once in a hundred years. Appear a situation when a set of circumstances in social, economic overlap each other, that's the last time it was a hundred years ago," he said.
Thus, as a tool of analysis of the socio-economic situation in the country, Andrey Olegovich uses the periodic cycles of alternating UPS and downs of the modern world economy with a duration of 48-55 years, described in the 20-ies of the last century by Nikolai Kondratieff.
Thus, the current state of Russia is a downward trend, comparable with the changes of the early twentieth century, where several deep crises.
Now, as a hundred years ago, we enter another technological phase. With the introduction of new technologies follows the redivision of the world. One hundred years ago, then it was a redistribution between the empires: English, German, French and American. Exploded and broke the entire social structure of society is mainly because of huge social inequality, unfair distribution of marketable wealth between the rich and the poor. Look at the numbers, analyze them and understand that we are in such a structural crisis, which was a hundred years ago.
And so what we see is political, social and economic crises at the same time. The culprit was the contradictions of the existing liberal model of the economy (a model of financial capitalism, which solved the problems of the last 30 years due to technological growth, but simply printing money, throwing money into the market to make the money to buy the goods, and the demand was to move the economy forward) limiting development opportunities.
The global crisis also escalates competition prevailing in the world of trading blocs, governments lack funds to implement their programs, increase taxes for ordinary citizens. The government is interested in any ways to get out of citizens and companies as much money as possible in their favor, through their taxes, that increases social tensions.
Need to know where the money citizens are. Many companies, especially the media, know about us almost everything. They know where we had Breakfast today, because we card paid off, our mobile phones connected to the system of geolocation, that is, they know everything about us: how to find us how to take our money. And these are not empty words. As an example, Andrew O. he recalled the situation in Cyprus, when the Cypriot government realized that they did not have enough money, and just "cut off" of 20% from the Bank accounts of its citizens. It was debt, financial, budgetary and economic crisis in the Republic of Cyprus, which in March 2013 has led to the paralysis of the banking system and plunged the economy in pre-default state.
According to Bezrukova, the Bretton woods system (established after world war II international monetary system in which participating countries of the system of "tied" courses of national currencies to the US dollar, which employed the entire world) begins to disintegrate. The economic model of the world changes, which fully contributes to the emergence of new technologies, and this entails a change of leaders and the growth of "neatlanticheskogo of the world" (Russia, China, India).
The current change in military capabilities has led to a weakening global systems. In the Anglo-Saxon world there is a shortage of ideas and the loss of world domination. Today, the United States imposed sanctions, as at least some of the response to the conflict, to monitor that they are, in fact, now powerless. Case Skripal and such "fakes" — is an example of the so-called destabilized hysteria among the elites of Britain. Faced with the problem of the direction of development of their own country in the new conditions, they feel they are losing leadership on the world stage, lose the previously established their control over other countries. They need to embroil the European Union and Russia, and also to distract its own population from domestic problems in Britain.
"For the first time in the last 400 years of the Anglo-Saxon world has lost military superiority. They lost it not only for Russia, but at the expense of other countries. The South Korean army is now stronger than the British. If you had some kind of controversial issue, some kind of shopping problem, they customized there the carrier and all was solved. Now it is over. They can't get used to a different world and so hysterical, they don't know what to do, they don't know how to behave. Need something to do to look weak not want" - said Bezrukov.
Citizens of the Anglo-Saxon world faced with the collapse of the idea of the "welfare state". Society is growing inequality. The crisis in the social sphere is heated increasing global migration. Therefore, not only Russian, but also Western society feels that they are going nowhere.
The result of the dominance of the liberal model of the economy the middle class in developed countries is reduced, its profits are down, grown-up children live poorer than their parents. All this leads to increased social tensions.
The policy of the ruling elites of Western countries, the export production in developing countries, where labor is much cheaper, has also led to an increased gap between rich and poor.
"Now, the consequences of deep social crisis - continues Bezrukov, is also a showdown between the elites within States. Need to find a flaw in the competing elite and, through this, to take her power. And this kind of showdown started everywhere. In the US there are about six elite, the financial elite – Wall Street, the elite of the Startup (company with global interests), the administrative elite (which is struggling right now with trump), there is an elite intellectual (universities), media, if you go against them, then you are no longer in print, called the fringe.. They are opposed to the industrial elite, which understands that the export of money in China undermines the competitiveness and prosperity of the United States. Michael porter, an American economist, a recognized expert in the study of economic competition is the chief business strategist, who wrote most business strategies. Every year he holds consultations among the US elite, with a focus on the definition of competitiveness of the country. And in 2016, he wrote that on the path of development of the country is a dysfunctional political system. Because 25 years before, after the end of the cold war, the American elite is simply no action was taken. The capital, which cost more in the United States was exported to China, to Central Asia – where more money was given. So, more of this business USA could not stand. Because the tax reform was never carried out, competitors grew stronger and the business just rebelled. There is a struggle between two elites. Elite financial and operational. We have in Russia the same. Why do we have such a high interest rate? We are ruled by financiers, ruled on the model of financial capital, which has different principles. And here is now the struggle between Finance capital and productive capital, and, most of all, production capital will win, for the simple reason that we now go into another economic cycle and, anyway, will have to invest in the economy to invest in growth."
Thus, according to Andrey Bezrukov, when these problems occur in the economy, they begin to occur in society. Social inequality is, of course, the most painful. There are drivers that drive politics and Economics, is a driver of freedom, and the driver of justice. When many freedom, increasing inequality, and so people in principle are not equal, and when this inequality is off the charts, society feels "sick" and wants more fairness, of redistribution, that was not such a difference between people. So, this cycle is freedom justice, freedom-justice is constant.
There are two ways out of the current crisis, according to the speaker, is to redistribute money through taxes, as it happened in the beginning of the XX-th century in USA and Western Europe, or to redistribute money through the revolution, when the people unite against the state and the state will have to pay back the money redistributing them.
Before the modern young generation there is a serious problem because if this trend of increasing inequality will continue and nothing will be done if the request for justice was not solved, the society will explode.
Bezrukov noted that such processes have been studied in the book of Thomas Piketty "Capital in the twenty-first century." When the poor become poorer and the middle class disappears, then the power of the state to eliminate this social injustice. For example, such measures have been taken by Roosevelt, which suffered a significant part of the tax burden (90%) on the shoulders of the wealthy. In the end, the middle class began to grow, increased its purchasing power, which resulted in the country's economic growth.
"In his books about the decline of the middle class, the authors say that in the past (several decades ago), society was fairly stable, because the society was a kind of pyramid, where the height of the elite, then the middle class, then all the others. And now society has become a "rail": there is no middle class, the elite grew and a second rail parallel proletariat (prole – "on the brink"). What is it? This educated urban dwellers, quite young, they are all OK, they have education, but who can not find a stable career. Interrupted with one low paid job to another. Like not poor, but no prospects. These people represent a combustible mixture of the revolution. These people are coming out in yellow vests out for independence in Barcelona. This unhappy young active group that sees no prospects for themselves, while maintaining the same rate policy. When the demographic situation in the country resembles a "rail" to run the country can only two types of people: either dictators or clowns. And what is interesting that today the world is divided, we are looking for leaders or a dictator or a clown," - said Bezrukov.
The world is entering a new economic cycle. Technology is changing and with technology changing the economy, changing its organization. In geopolitical terms, one of the main features of these changes is the formation of the feasibility of separate blocks. Such blocks are separated by the level of development of modern technologies.
As you know, China has been a long time console in the economic system of the United States, and now China has become one of the globally economic countries and is growing rapidly. The awareness of the Americans of his new role led to the sanctions pressure on the country to avoid execution by the Chinese of its program for technological modernization of the economy by 2025.
What is a block? Economic unit which must control a large market to develop in this market. The Anglo-Saxons have such a market, China has such a market. This financial center, which provides money for development, it is also a set of technologies, it is not necessarily the set of all technologies, but it is set, at least key technologies in the defense and critical infrastructure that allows not to depend on competing blocks. And this, of course, has its own development philosophy, its strategy of competition. The question is: here there is a Chinese block, is the Anglo-Saxon bloc, Russia is a small country of 140 million population, large companies in this market will not create. Large investments in new technologies on a small market does not pay off. Russia faces the problem either to enter some kind of technical unit, or create your own, then the question arises - with whom? Now actively talks about the rapprochement with Turkey, the rapprochement with Germany. Of course, if Europe with Japan and with Russia, it could be a great stand-alone unit, which has everything you need (market, taxes, money). The Europeans are beginning to turn to Russia quietly, they realize that they have the same problem, they are not self-sufficient, you need a partner. And, of course, each unit needs to project military power.
Russia faces a giant strategic issue: if we do not create a strong and powerful unit, we will not be able to compete in the new world. We will not be able to develop the technology.
In conclusion, the speaker stressed that in the modern world is changing the understanding of the tools and methods of warfare, the role of the security of critical information infrastructure from external and internal threats.
"A key strength on which to build such a techno-economic unit, is critical infrastructure. This is the infrastructure that is absolutely essential for life, it can even be called a "sovereign critical infrastructure" because it ensures the sovereignty. To such facilities and systems include government communications systems, water supply, energy, space, nuclear power plants, large enterprises, financial institutions. And if you don't control your cyber-system, if you do not control your energy, then you don't control the technology on which to build your system.
That is, someone will come and turn the lights off, for example. On or off any device because you can't control it and don't know how it's built, how it works. And so each of the world of competing blocks will strive to ensure that no one is allowed in its critical infrastructure.
The Russian IT company Kaspersky not allowed to work in the United States, and the Chinese company Huawei allowed to work in Western markets. Similarly, the "Ali Baba" will not be allowed in the US, and Facebook is not allowed in China. All the economic, financial flows are walking on critical infrastructure, and it must be protected.
And the digital economy is interesting because when everything becomes digital, all from one country can easily spill over to another in the global namespace. And so there are new challenges and new opportunities. New opportunities arise for Russia in the transition to digital technology, and, thus, it turns out that the global critical infrastructure of the country will have to rebuild. It's expensive, it's trillions and trillions of dollars. Not all countries are able to carry out this task. There are only two such countries that are able to build your infrastructure: the United States and Russia. And all the others I bought either one or the other elements of this structure. Russia was able to create a unique safety system in the field of energy, communication, space, cyberspace. So we can expect that 30% of the global market is our market, where we can build.
And here it is, about 25-30% of the world will come to Russia, because they have nowhere else to go for political reasons. The same Turks, why are we buying s-400? Because their systems – NATO, and they may be a conflict with Greece, Greek aircraft will fly to the NATO anti-missile system to shoot them down will not, and they need their own, which will.
Russia is watching as there are big geopolitical blocks, while we ourselves have not yet a major geopolitical partners and technologies.
But we have advantages, we have changed the geopolitics dramatically over the past few years, we realized that we are not Eastern Europe, but we in the North of Eurasia. And this radically changes our relationship to the world. Because we have 300 years past butted heads with Europe, fought with her, and now we realized that we sit like a hat on the giant continent of four billion people with huge demands on the economy, resources, science...
And, if we build in common with Eurasian countries market, you can many years to develop quickly and productively. This market was formed, it is necessary to build all the infrastructure, logistics. The Chinese began to build from West to East, and we need to build from North to South. Just as Canada is developing together with the United States, if it were not for US, then there would be no Canada.
In the meantime, Americans will do anything to this market did not take place because we are their competitors. The market will or will not be, but there is security, simple alternative to the country's regions agree with each other and formed some rules of the game, built at the expense of stability infrastructure market, starts the development of a normal market, about twenty. Or, if the country will go forward separately, the Americans will try to ruin our relationship, and this is likely to lead to some wars and fights among themselves.
The task of each of the warring parties will be imposing its will on others by all available means, and above all, economic and information. Instability will grow, and within States (practically all), and within the international system.
Hence the conclusion – the value of sovereignty, the security will constantly and actively growing. States are preparing to enter into a new technological cycle, who will focus the power, who is faster gets there, he will capture a key position and will dominate. All others will adapt to them and so we see that there is a mobilization. China understands this and so is developing. The United States also understand. The Indians understand it perfectly. Only such strong personalities like trump, Putin, Erdogan, XI Jinping, modi can make such decisions. And where they do not, the country will not accept these solutions are not mobilized and will be left behind.
Will increase the role of the state, coordinating all for two reasons. The redistribution of wealth within each country and on the world stage is inevitable. It will happen either peacefully or revolution breaks out. Only the state can build a new political system, a new critical infrastructure."
Tags: assessment , Russia , USA , security