Modern geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe on the example of Ukraine
Material posted: Publication date: 16-11-2019
Ukraine – a sovereign state, which from a geopolitical point of view is between the Russian Federation and the European Union. The state for many years was part of Russian Empire and later was part of the Soviet Union. However, with the signing of the Belavezha accords, the Ukraine, along with Belarus, Russia and other Soviet republics became independent actors in international relations.

Taking into account the historical moments and considering the cultural aspect, it would be foolish to deny the Russian-Ukrainian cooperation immediately after the signing of the Belovezhskaya agreements. Although domestic policy of the Ukrainian state, formed L. M. Kravchuk, rather, involves the creation of a Ukrainian identity, a number of actions in foreign policy clearly reflected the fact that Ukraine intends to take radical decisions and to refuse from cooperation with Russia. It is important to note such actions as: nuclear disarmament of Ukraine, creation of the Commonwealth of Independent States, etc.

Most sharply there was a question from the black sea fleet, but rather with his affiliation with one of the two powers. Geopolitically, until 2014, the Crimea was part of Ukraine, therefore, regarding the potential affiliation of the black sea fleet, the Ukrainian side had more reason. At the same time, the geopolitical interest of Russia to enter into the Black sea is fully reflected in the number of agreements since 1994.

Considering the historical factor in the "black issue", it is important to note that despite the fact that the Russian Empire was one of the largest States, the availability of access to the Black sea, the construction of military bases, etc. remained an important subject of conflict between Russia and Turkey.

Of course, in this historical period of Russia and Ukraine acted as a single subject of international relations in the face of the Russian Empire, however, taking into consideration all the achievements in that era, each of these two States will want to retain this historical legacy.

Considering the other historical fact, namely the transfer of the Crimean region from the RSFSR to the USSR, you notice one of the most significant developments in the geopolitical situation of the two republics. One reason for this action was the result of the difficult economic situation in the Crimean Peninsula.

It is these actions that become the cause of conflict as supplies of the black sea fleet and ownership of the Crimea as a whole after 2014.

In the period of the Soviet Union the question of supplies of Crimea in a broader sense could remain only in the minds of the people. Subjective understanding of the principle of "friend or foe" the people of the RSFSR and the Ukrainian SSR had its place, despite the fact that the transfer region is carried out in the framework of a single state. At the same time, taking into account the root cause of transferring the Crimean region from the structure to the other, namely economic, it is important to note that the issue of financing of subjects, anyway, were from a single center. Thus, we can conclude that only refer to the economic factor is not entirely correct.

As noted at the beginning, from the point of view of geopolitics Ukraine is situated between Russia and Europe. Here I especially want to highlight the Western Ukraine and Poland, namely, their historical interaction. The Eastern part of the Ukrainian state from a historical point of view should rather be linked with Russia. In addition to history, you can highlight the cultural factor. Eastern Ukraine, including Kiev, can be called Russian-speaking. Today, despite the ban of the Russian language, it is important to emphasize that Russian language is ranked second in the number of speakers in the country. First of all it is connected with the past of the Ukrainian state, and also with geopolitical influence of the "Eastern neighbor". The question of language is part of the official policy of soft power and historical past allows you to find the adherents of the Russian language today.

Returning to current events, it should be noted that Russian-Ukrainian relations have such negative tendencies, which had never. First, as noted above, this is directly related to the issue of ownership of the Crimean Peninsula, and secondly, to fully defined the legal status of Donetsk and Lugansk National Republics. Regarding the second cause of conflict, it is important to note that although Russia has a certain kind of geopolitical interest in this clash, after all Russia is not a direct party to the conflict.

Another reason for the "crisis" in Russian-Ukrainian relations may be the fact that one way or another, Ukraine is on the European continent and after the signing of the Belavezha accords is more likely to gravitate towards the European Union than to Russia based on the economic dominance of the leading countries in the European bloc. Geopolitically, with the possible accession of Ukraine to the EU and the appearance of additional land borders, we can not exclude the creation in Ukraine new military bases, which may cause the loss of the territorial integrity of Russia in a possible military confrontation.

Today is particularly acute a question of the legal status of Donetsk and Lugansk National Republics. First of all, it should be emphasized that Russia is not a direct participant in the conflict. After joining the Crimea to Russia, two other areas have also expressed a desire to join the Russian Federation. To resolve this conflict took place in Minsk, where he signed the Minsk agreement. However, approaching the question more objectively, can be traced to the fact that these agreements are de facto lost its power. Analyzing the position of Russia from the point of view of conflict resolution, it is impossible to deny her full participation in this conflict. Currently, in addition to open armed conflicts, there are also cyber war and hybrid war. Without open evidence it is difficult to draw conclusions on what actions the Russian side.

If you consider the fact that, in General, the question of the legal status of DND and LNR are in the nature of war rather than a political-legal settlement, then you may recall the quote of the Prussian commander, the military theorist and historian Carl Von Clausewitz: "War is the continuation of politics by other means". Drawing conclusions from this quote, I would like to note that the military actions of the Ukrainian government de-facto waging against its own citizens.

Thus, we can conclude that from a geopolitical point of view Ukraine was, is and will be a part of Russia and part of Europe at the same time. Predicting geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, I want to highlight the fact that despite change of leader of the Ukrainian state in the next 5-10 years it is difficult to imagine any interaction of Russia and Ukraine in economic, political, social and cultural issues. As mentioned above, the obstacle to this is how the diversity of views in the Western and Eastern parts of the country and direct cause of the conflict the legal status of DND and LNR, as well as Crimea. At the moment it is difficult to predict the possible entry of Ukraine into the European Union, as economic indicators and the level of corruption is too vary and some can be a disadvantage for many EU countries.


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Kasarov Tr

Tags: assessment , A.Snesariev's competition , Ukraina