Common to almost all reasoning about the consequences of the Pentagon terrorist attack against Qassem Soleimani began predicting rising tensions in the region. It should be noted that they are already confirmed information about the upcoming shipment to the Middle East for more American troops in 3 thousand. Some of them have already arrived in Kuwait, including soldiers from the brigade 82nd airborne division of the United States, the appearance of which in any region anticipates at least the destabilization, and a maximum force change of power in one country.
Clearly in this regard, the President of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani declared that any threat from its territory to neighboring States will not be emphasized keeping in mind the American threat to neighboring Iran. Against this background, security measures strengthened Israel, which announced the closure of the tourist area near the Lebanese border in the North of the country and the reduction of troops in high alert. A special meeting dedicated to these activities conducted defence Minister Naftali Bennett and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, supporting international terrorist action of the United States, prudently returned home, interrupting his visit to Greece.
With the promised Rahbar Ali Khamenei retaliation for the death of a key commander of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps (IRGC), analysts began to consider the Iranian attack on the USA which is far away, and at Israel, which is close. Director, Institute for strategic Affairs of the Levant Sami Nader, Recalling that Lebanon was already committed the attack on the U.S. Embassy and the location of the units of the U.S. marine corps, tied the prospects of a possible strike at Israel with activity and high efficiency of the Pro-Iranian Shiite group "Hezbollah". Political analyst, Yousef Diab, stressing that the group operates in Lebanon at home, said that after the assassination attempt on General Soleimani she had an immutable motive for the attack is on Israel as the main US satellite in the region.
Evidence of Israeli fears of such a development is a "counter" Analytics, lulling public opinion of Israel and its supporters in Russia inevitably to the weakening in Iran the influence of radical opponents of the United States. It looks very clumsy attempt to move the Iranian-Israeli contradictions into the most of the Iranian elite, unhappy with playing for the Islamic regime. This, incidentally, also tried to do Donald trump, justified, without batting an eye, open the U.S.'s transition to the practice of state terrorism including the "protection" of the Iranian opposition. Serious concern about the prospects of regional escalation was expressed by the diplomatic agencies of Russia, China and Germany. As well as Egypt and several other middle Eastern countries that confirms existing fears about the prospects for the development of the situation around Israel.
However, in our view, should be distinguished tactical maneuvers around the events, and both regional and global, strategic impacts and associated prospects for the existing world order. For nothing so it does not undermine, continuing the trend of rolling off the world for a major war as extrajudicial acts of state terrorism. Previously, this behavior was peculiar to Israel, whose leadership has justified the "preventive" strikes on the territory of a neighboring and countries in exactly the same way as demonstrative ignoring of UN resolutions — "the need" of self-defense in the absence of strategic depth. "We can STO wars to win, but enough of one to lose to cease to exist" so goes that excuse. And despite its international legal inferiority, a certain logic, admittedly, in the present. However, now a similar practice has moved and the United States — the superpower number 1, which a priori does not threaten anything except all-out nuclear war with the use of a triad of strategic nuclear forces — strategic nuclear forces. From all the other threats the country is safely sheltered by two oceans and distances, impassable for conventional forces and means of warfare.
Here there is an urgent need to clearly understand that after the murder Soleimani, on whose territory it may happen, the world has moved into a qualitatively different state, in which the level of security in the diplomatic sense if you already have not lost their relevance, it tends to zero.
No, nothing and no one else in this world does not guarantee. And can hardly be considered a metaphor expressed the view that the American drone strike on the Baghdad airport has much in common with the infamous shot 105 years ago in Sarajevo.
In our view, the state machine of the USA has crossed the Rubicon, he embarked on a very shaky path. Washington had practiced before state terrorism in the political-judicial manner, when the rules of the American right person was given the right of extraterritoriality, and the citizens and officials of other countries-opponents of the United States, including Russia, in the interests of the authorities were arrested in third countries. And given the fact, falsely so called American justice, to real justice has nothing to do with. But there was at least some, albeit formally-dogmatic, far-fetched, usually corporate-political, thoroughly opportunistic, but still, "base", a cover of the Fig leaf of judicial requests. It is clear that the requirements given by the American courts, was motivated not legal, but purely political, dictated by the Washington authorities, solutions. But it was — the court decision, despite the "correction" into the wind of political expediency, justified by ideas of "American exceptionalism".
Now this Fig leaf discarded; the client has presented to the world throughout pristine natural frankness. From this moment on, no one hear, no one! — statesman and political figure of any country in the world, including in a public office in her power, including those at the highest positions of power hierarchy, is not safe outside of their country. If before the arrest in the interests of the United States it was protected by diplomatic immunity, but now the price of this immunity is zero. A rocket fired from UAVs or anything else American that can fly to the "right" point, spit on the state boundaries, the immunity doesn't ask, he destroys. And may arrive at any time. Safe from this point on are not, of course, any other officers and/or members of governments, parliaments and businessmen who, during the foreign visit are the main visitor around. The author of these lines far from thinking that Iran, like Iraq, counterintelligence idle. They didn't have information about the activity of intelligence agencies and the Pentagon. And that General Soleimani is not protected. All hands were; was just 100 percent confidence that such could not happen because that never happened. There was no such precedent. And protected from local militants from a terrorist attack, or agent of the special operation the level of the maximum battalion, and company tactical group. Fantasy is not enough for a reassurance from an aerial shot at the statesman, the subject of formal negotiations, of a sovereign country by armed forces of the other country. This is a unique case that opens the proverbial "Pandora's box".
But as soon as A = B, then B = A. this means that any American statesman, including top officials, no longer can feel safe in foreign visits and private trips. Trump and respect his adventure the Pentagon with his own hands took the state and diplomatic immunity of Ministers, senators, congressmen — all American officials, including functionaries of the White house and especially the security chiefs. Each of them is now a target, and revenge from Iran, which said Ayatollah Khamenei — that's about it. Somehow have the certainty that retaliation will be applied. America or Israel — it is necessary and to whom "lucky." Because otherwise, as drew attention to the Director of the Lebanese Institute S. Nader, Iran will "lose face". And the government loses face, we will add, usually followed by a collapse of credibility in the country and the loss of this power, which the ruling Iranian regime, of course, will not allow. It is extremely naive on this background, appears the cynicism of reasoning analysts are Pro-American and Pro-Israel wing of who within Iran as a result, will increase and who will fail. Nation, if she wants to save herself in the story, can't miss a beat without answering the call. According to the law "Call-and-Response", formulated the famous political puppeteer Arnold Toynbee, it ceases to exist. Not immediately, of course, but in the foreseeable future. It's like Gorbachev's regime, having on hand all of the evidence of the involvement of us intelligence to the provocative aerial South Korean "Boeing" in Soviet airspace over the Kola Peninsula, they were not published, and made the subject of backroom bargaining perestroika. In that moment, when the American party could and should have been brought to heel, zeroing the authority of the United States in the world and undermining the very foundations of Anglo-Saxon global leadership. The result is known: "the worst feud with Anglo-Saxons can only be a friendship with them."
Sooner or later, but some of us officials to this attack with an unpredictable outcome undergo, and the answer that the US response? Massive blow and war? But you have to realize that winning murder Soleimani move in a chess game of intelligence, the United States suffered a serious moral defeat, losing to the situation in the global information field, not just in that in which they are accustomed to act consistently and to win "a clear advantage". So the Third Reich, turning a provocation for provocation, he, with his own hands, rebuilt itself against the anti-Hitler coalition. And despite all the efforts of the Western elites and the moral and other support they were willing to have helped Hitler against the Soviet Union, they were forced to become a military cage is with Moscow, not Berlin.
This trend, which is becoming long lasting, is dominant, there is an internal cut. Trump cornered demarche congressmen who supported his impeachment under the formal pretext "for Ukraine", decided to fight fire with fire, proving your opponents rollicking "patriotism". Guy, slashing the business, understand the bad in politics if he thinks that the result will be the applause of the opponents. The same Joe Biden has questioned the rule of international law anti-Iranian cowboy action in Baghdad; over time, as the deployment of pre-election fight, it may be the subject of a new attempt of impeachment, and, with much brighter prospects than at present. The decisive internal problems with external effects, even without quite understanding how, step by step gets himself in a trap, undermining the foundations of their own power and reinforcing torn elites, the rise of public apathy against public interest to "protect" such a dubious way. Not on positive achievements and the devastating negative effect of which is turned at 180 degrees, comes back like a boomerang. Iran the historical choice is made, moving from words to action when it would seem nothing could save Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Your choice seems to be made and trump is that if you will go down in history, not the slogan "America first", which increasingly turns the election zilch, and the fact that he becomes the founder of "fashion" to state terrorism in the current era of modern historical times. Being direct ideological and political follower of Hitler. Fascist United States is at a rapid pace, but repeating the story the second time instead of the tragedy gives a farce, the first act of this tragicomedy was the attempt of the Western conceptual elites to impose a "fourth Reich" on the basis of an initially impotent, mired in a cozy borgerstue, the European Union. It seems that trump is a second and final attempt, the inevitability of which Oswald Spengler warned in "Sunset of Europe" in its historical decay of the West can hold on to the XXI century by staging a last universal conflagration. What will be the magnitude of this fire in terms of nuclear parity — a separate issue, but it is already clear that if the gun hanging on the stage and not shoot even towards the end of the performance, the creative Director expects an imminent collapse.
Tags: Iran , assessment , USA , Turkey