The conflict between the USA and Iran: a situation analysis
Material posted: Publication date: 24-01-2020
Deterioration in us-Iranian conflict in Iraq was preceded by a forced resignation of the Tehran protégé Adil Abdul-Mahdi as Prime Minister, Abdul-Mahdi in September, I flew to Beijing, where he said about "quantum leap" in relations between Iraq and China. Then contracts were signed for the development of Chinese companies major Iraqi oil fields and announced the annexation of Baghdad to the project "One belt and one road".

In the context of the global party of China D. Trump needed as soon as possible to deprive the enemy of important bridgehead in the middle East. Especially given the role of Pro-China lobbyists in the initiation of the impeachment. In turn, China should now expect to strengthen the tacit support of the "Shiite Crescent" led by Tehran, including its nuclear program last.

Very likely a Chinese attempt to gain control of the uranium deposits and production facilities of Kazakhstan (representatives of the Chinese intelligence on the markets of Nursultan) and Uzbekistan with increasing political turbulence in these countries.

Sources suggested that "Qasem Soleimani represented the interests of a group of people who control the sale of oil to China bypassing sanctions. The money is mainly consolidated in Kunlun Bank – about 30-40 billion dollars. Initially, the money freely went back to Iran, but the situation has changed: China continues to buy oil, but the money is settled in the form of a non-resident yuan accounts in Chinese banks (again Kunlun). Withdraw non-resident yuan because the US position was not real, the Iranians started to have problems — the oil goes, and the money is piling up. Then began to attract intermediaries who for a fee helped to withdraw money from China, but the Iranians were throwing hundreds of millions of dollars. Then the spiritual leadership of Iran (which receives the main income from the oil business) has appointed two persons to monitor this scheme. One of these people was Qasem Soleimani, who has had a residency at the world — he severely punished those who had to deceive Iran. Thanks to the curation oil directions Qassem appeared serious (informal) contacts in China, he began to communicate people from the Central Committee. And since China is interesting the middle East, the cooperation has gone beyond the oil money. And Qassem Soleimani has become one of the conductors of a policy of friendship of China with Iran. Began a joint operation in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Turkey. Now China has lost a powerful conductor of its interests in the middle East".

Sources believe that "the payment scheme involved various intermediaries, some of them were now seated, the Magomedov brothers. They say they have smuggled into the budgets of the ayatollahs, which caused the wrath of the latter, and superimposed on the interest of law enforcement officers to the assets of the brothers, especially to the NCSP". Being a liaison with China, Europe and the democratic top of the United States, K. Soleimani personally much closed, and its elimination of forcing Iran 2-4 months to restore the informal channels of communication.

Claim that K. Soleimani gave him the entrusted person, the information received from the inner circle. In addition, information about the movement of the General was received from the airport staff and security. According to Israeli intelligence, internal security, the IRGC is conducting mass arrests of employees of IRGC commanders in Tehran and in Iraq (56 arrested by officers of the IRGC).

According to various sources, Iran needs from 4 weeks up to 1 year to create its own full-fledged nuclear device. The missiles Iran has, but the old liquid, which, although "work" on the continental range, but very long to have long use and can remain fully operational (if Iran is not stolen or purchased technology TRD).

The main danger in the war of Iran with any enemy, rather, is the use of chemical weapons (CWA), which was Iran not only abound, but it is also used in the war with Iraq. That is, the military leaders of Iran have not only the experience of giving orders to use weapons of mass destruction, but its active use at the regional theater.

While that is all happening with Iran significantly increases the role of Russia as arbitrator. In addition, in a situation where a U.S. missile strike kills official face of Iran, a package of orders for air defense systems of Russian production will increase 2-fold in 2020, as expected. However, expected reputational attack on Russian military-industrial complex – as a result of the incident with Boeing-737 aircraft of Ukrainian airlines in Tehran.

I believe that dismantling the Islamic Republic and its transition fields under the control of Western (even American), and especially Chinese companies – the concern of the United States, and is ideal for the trump option — preservation of the high prices of oil in the total inability of Iran to use them.

After hitting the IRGC at the American military bases, which gave Trump the excuse to tighten sanctions against Iran to limit the chances of zeroing oil benefits Tehran as high as ever.

First, Iran is important for China as a supplier of oil. The trade turnover between China and Iran to 2018 reached 35,13 billion U.S. dollars. China bought Iran 29.3 million tons of crude oil to $ 15 billion. (annual growth of 22%).

Second, China sees Iran as its military foothold in the middle East. And China's help was huge in the development of the defense potential of Iran despite all sanctions. This equipment, and military technology, which was, either directly or through third countries. According to the Stockholm international Institute of peace studies, China is among the three leading partners for the supply of arms to Iran by exporting in the period 2008-2018 in the total amount of 269 million dollars.

Thirdly, the interaction between China and Iran in the military field could not to strain the United States. In fact, he began to form a lasting military Alliance: China and Iran in 2014 held the first joint naval exercises in the waters of the Persian Gulf. In 2016, China and Iran signed an agreement to strengthen defence and military cooperation and the fight against terrorism. At the end of December 2019 in the Indian ocean and the Gulf of Ottoman was conducted a four-day naval exercise with China, Iran and Russia, in the space of 17 thousand sq. km. And obviously, they were aimed against the presence here of the United States.

The price of services for the United States may soon be formulated in the form of ideas to ease the sanctions against Iran. Democrats have already begun to speak.

Crashed in Iran Ukrainian plane really was shot down by a missile, Iranian air defenses, and it was done by mistake: the Iranian air defenses was given in the mode of increased combat readiness in connection with the received information about the retaliatory air strikes from the US (they really "raised the aircraft" in the air from regional air bases but, nevertheless, on their part there has been no military retaliation against Iran). Later, the Iranian authorities admitted that knocked overboard, "a tragic mistake" because of the combat ready to reflect the declared States attack.

US understand what are the indirect blame for the tragedy, but an apology Ukraine will not wait. Instead, Ukraine will make an active mouthpiece for the articulation of the problems associated with weapons of Russian (Soviet) production. In particular, in Davos.

The case is designed to distract from the fact that the American base was fired on by Iranian missiles (the real one), and the United States "swallowed".

The EU seeks to retain its special relationship with Tehran, to prevent the complete and irreversible destruction of the Iranian nuclear deal in 2015. U.S. Secretary of state Mike Pompeo, describing in an interview with Fox News his conversations with allies about the murder Soleimani, said: "Frankly, the Europeans were not as useful as I would like". In the EU, alarmed by the statements of the Iranian leadership about the inevitable revenge of the Americans: January 4, Josep Borrell held a telephone conversation with Minister of foreign Affairs of Iran Javad Zarif and invited him to visit Brussels, confirming (and Russia) full support for the Iranian nuclear deal. He also expressed the full readiness of the EU to contribute to de-escalation in the region.

The role of Russia and its leadership in the region will increase: Vladimir Putin visited Damascus in the midst of conflict, and held personal talks with a number of actors, including Erdogan.

The fact that the Iranian leadership announced the completion of revenge for the murder of K. Soleimani, after the attack on two American bases in Iraq, further shifts the entire responsibility for the events escalating in the region to trump personally. He is the only one now "interested" to play this game. If the Pentagon/Washington will continue the aggression, commits a global error.

Iran and Iraq received proportionally balanced and even in the eyes of their opponents.

A coup in Tehran, in the hope that us and British intelligence agencies, most likely, at this stage, will not be anti-Western sentiment in the region is dominated by the consolidating company.

The aggressive behavior of the United States in the form of refusal to leave Iraq, despite the decision of its Parliament, as well as disregard for the opinions of his colleagues in NATO, will come to them sideways. Opinion "draft" decision taken in Brussels, to leave Iraq, very symptomatic.

The crisis in NATO is growing, the position of the trump in the United States is weakening – it can turn away many supporters before he would fire them.

Relatively large-scale escalation of the conflict, it should be noted a few scenarios:

A) "Remote war" with Iran from the United States and Israel, which will grow into the ground with apocalyptic consequences.

B) continuation of the exchange of blows between the United States and Iran under the rising political tension and energy prices.

C) a Political settlement through the UN security Council and Russia, which ultimately, in the interest of D. trump.


Tags: Iran , USA