Thin calculation with unpredictable ending
The future will judge which strategies of confrontation coronavirus was the most effective, but now there are several countries with a distinct approach to this issue.
In Europe in the unusual position there are inhabitants of Sweden, for which the majority of quarantine measures is Advisory in nature. In the North country didn't even shut down schools with kindergartens. Only high school students with students in the Kingdom was transferred to distance learning. In the hope of the discipline of the Swedes, the government together with the chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell recommended to observe social distance and, if possible, go for freelance work. Cafes, restaurants, shopping malls, parks with gardens are now filled with people, with no masks. A strange demand from the population not to go outside despite the fact that everything is always open. At first in Sweden, was banned only mass events, gathering more than 500 people in the room. That number is now reduced to 50. There is a caveat: all of the measures developed by the Swedish public health Agency (Folkhälsomyndigheten), to make any adjustments to their work, the Cabinet can not. Such is the nature of the law of the Kingdom: the medical Directors are independent from the state.
The preservation of democratic principles at any price creates in Sweden a "tolerant" environment for the virus. For example, if a family is found infected COVID-19, a two-week quarantine is not required for the others. The government only asks not to attend work in this case. All anti-epidemic measures taken by the Swedish medical guidance, based on experience of eradication of outbreaks of atypical pneumonia (SARS) and middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). And at the moment, according to Anders Tegnell, everything goes according to plan. The coefficient of infection by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (index R) is less than unity, that is one sick person infects no more than one person. Now the index is approximately equal to 0,85, which is a sign of the decline of the epidemic in the country. For comparison: in early April, R in Sweden was equal to 1.3.
An unusual situation developed with the medical officer in the army of the Kingdom. When I was deployed two field hospital in Gothenburg and Stockholm, it appeared that the more the military is nothing left. The hospitals were previously distributed to the compassionate Swedes peacekeeping missions around the world and the poorer countries of the Baltic States, "suffering" from the Russian threat. That is, in the case of a serious jump in the number of infected army to help, nothing can.
The questions raised and the support of the population in the fight against COVID-19. Despite the fact that the government claims such soft measures, in fact it only support 52% of the population. That is actually the society was divided in the question of evaluation of action.
Of course, in a situation when the world around is deaf in isolation, and in Sweden a kind of Paradise, there are voices calling to pursue international experience. First of all Anders Tegnell reproach in high mortality among the older generation, especially in nursing homes. And scientists say about the upcoming wave of mortality on such a scale that the average life expectancy in the Kingdom will fall for a couple years. Naturally, this will happen because of the massive loss of residents over 65 years. The doctor points out the virtual absence of specific treatment of patients with the elderly. Infected people are left in nursing homes on the conscience of the local physicians. In early may, Anders Tegnell officially recognized the inadequate attention that had a health care Agency for the elderly. This category should primarily be isolated from the contacts. However, the official pointed to the mortality April 2020 compared to the same period last year – the figures were very close.
Opponents from among the scientists of the country point to the experience of Iceland, Norway, Finland and Denmark, where since the beginning of March imposed strict quarantine, closed schools, kindergartens and all public areas. The Norwegians even forbidden to leave the cities to the country, hoping to reduce the spread of infection to the periphery. Tegnell says that soft Swedish measures caused primarily by concern for the physical and mental health of citizens. If the Kingdom is to enter the same tough measures it soon and the epidemic is not really right, and a pack related diseases get. The main hope of the Swedish government is now on the imminent formation of collective immunity in the population and the subsequent decline in the number of infected. And while in the beginning of may in Sweden almost 23 thousand infected COVID-19, of which only 1 thousand recovered and died more than 2.7 thousand it is worth remembering that in the Kingdom, not everyone can be tested for COVID-19 – shows how only people with obvious symptoms, as well as contact with infected with the coronavirus. However, the pace of growth of recent days suggest that the country has come to the plateau phase.
Can this be explained by the high performance team Agnella? Rather, it is the relative measures of quarantine due to the very high mortality rate – about 12%. The neighbors of the Kingdom in early may exhibit qualitatively different indicators: Denmark – less than 10 thousand people infected, more than 7 thousand 493 recovered and death; Norway – 7884, 32 and 214, respectively; Finland – 5327, 240 and 3500 respectively. It seems, in search of the Golden mean preservation of health and economy in the Kingdom has chosen not the right path. However, the Swedes are not alone in their liberal "know-how".
Belarus vs Vietnam
At first glance, the measures taken by Belarus is very similar to the approach Sweden. Here, too, work in educational institutions, cafes, restaurants, cinemas and other public places. Was not stopped football championship – this, incidentally, is an unprecedented step in Europe. Lukashenko is even the Victory Parade on May 9 was canceled, but at the end of April conducted a nationwide subbotnik timed to the 75th anniversary of the Victory. In fact the authorities only limited to a two-week quarantine for all visitors from abroad. Are Belarusians consulted with Anders Tegnell?
The main difference between anti-virus strategy, our neighbor from the actions of the Swedes in the actual denial of the fact of lethality COVID-19. According to the leader of the country, the whole story with the coronavirus is far-fetched and does not bear special threat to the health of the nation. The main motive Lukashenka is to take care of the economy of Belarus. First, stop the enterprises of the industry will cause a soon financial collapse, as no monetary airbags Belarusians and there was not. And, secondly, it is obvious that the Belarusian leader wants to get out of this global crisis with minimum loss, and economic dividends. Around the country will be engaged in resuscitation of the private sector, and health and working industry in Belarus that can help. Here new markets, and the partial elimination of competitors.
Summary: at the beginning of may in Belarus almost 17.5 thousand infected, of whom died a little more than a hundred people and recovered more than 3 thousand Is this statistic an indicator of the effectiveness of the "special path" Lukashenka against the coronavirus, which he can't see? Or here is guilty of the nuances of counting? In any case, a considerable part of the population do not particularly trust the simple recipes of type "50 gr. vodka and Banya" and move on to self-isolation. Naturally, such spontaneous measures particularly nothing useful to bring.
Quarantine in the case of Belarusians it is better to learn from the Vietnamese epidemiologists.
Let's start with the fact that Vietnam is still no one who died of coronavirus! This despite the fact that "patient zero" in the country was detected on 23 January, a few days after bringing medical services to full readiness. In General, a hallmark of the work of the Vietnamese government was the speed. Quickly quarantined, quickly closed all educational institutions and foodservice outlets, quickly blocked the city Winpwn with the infected. Spore worked for the police when I found out the infected contacts across the country. And all — once in lockdown, almost under armed guard. But it is not the richest country allowed myself to buy expensive medical equipment in South Korea and provide virtually free power to all closed to quarantine people. Rigidly worked with those who deny the scale of the global pandemic, several officials even arrested. Experts say that such efficiency is a result of proximity to China, which is a regular fever of different epidemics. So we have neighbors to be constantly on the alert. In the end, in Vietnam for all time contracted coronavirus 271 people, of which 219 have recovered, deaths, as mentioned above, do not exist. Now the country is slowly emerging from quarantine (mask until required, groups of more than 20 people is prohibited), but to resume full contacts with the outside world are not in a hurry.
Spectacular strategy for Vietnam, unfortunately, have little where applicable. COVID-19 mostly spread across countries. Total isolation will not solve anything. One hope — for herd immunity for the Swedish-Belarusian recipe. And when all the countries around Vietnam like will get, what will happen to its inhabitants?
Tags: assessment , Russia , Europe , Byelorussia , coronavirus