The military-political situation in Northeast Asia (NEA) is characterized by instability due to the presence of serious contradictions in the objectives of the main states of the region, which include Russia, the United States, the People's Republic of China (PRC), Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
Existing problems regularly put this area of the world to the brink of armed conflict. An example of this could be an aggravation of inter-Korean relations in August 2015, due to the erosion of two South Korean soldiers on anti-personnel landmines in the Demilitarized zone (DMZ) on the Korean Peninsula and the subsequent artillery fire on the border between the two countries. Growth confrontation was accompanied by North Korea's nuclear tests in 2015-2020
Connection of China and the Republic of Korea in the political sphere are developing steadily. In the course of contacts and consultations in 2015-2020, the parties confirmed their agreement on further strengthening the strategic partnership, the bilateral dialogue mechanisms, including the use of direct lines of communication between the foreign ministries of the two States. An important stimulus enhancement of the interaction of Beijing Seoul has become the economic and trade cooperation. China is the largest trading partner of Kazakhstan, which accounts for over 20% of South Korean trade. In turn, the Republic of Korea is the sixth-largest foreign trade, the counterparty of the PRC.
Still uncompromising approaches Tokyo to establish contacts with the DPRK with the possibility of tougher unilateral sanctions against Pyongyang. The main requirements for the normalization of relations put forward a solution to the problem of the stolen in the 1970-1980s, the North Korean intelligence services of the Japanese people, a complete drawdown nuclear and missile programs. .
The normalization of bilateral relations with the United States regarded North Korea as the main factor of national security. The main purpose of this plan is the way to a direct dialogue with Washington on military-political issues and the creation of conditions for the signing of the peace agreement, which should replace the existing contractual basis, based on the ceasefire agreement in 1953. According to estimates by the North Korean leadership, even a partial solution to this problem will allow to expand access to foreign investment and technology needed to modernize the economy.
Assessing the nature of existing and potential threats, the U.S. and South Korean military experts believe that the main source of military threat and a major destabilizing factor for the short term, North-East Asia will remain the DPRK .
- gain information warfare;
- active conduct special forces operations (combat actions), including before the outbreak of hostilities;
- desire of the parties to the suppression and disruption of control systems and communications behind enemy lines and communications at the initial stage of the conflict;
- the extensive use of high-precision weapons and far for the fire with the intent of attacking military groups, objects, military and civilian infrastructure to a maximum depth;
- the increasing number of civilian casualties and the risk of undermining the economic potential of the warring parties.
Developed several scenarios, including a coup d'état and the start of the civil war in North Korea, a large-scale natural disaster or man-made disaster, the loss of official control over existing stockpiles of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, a mass Exodus of North Korean population in the territory of neighboring States.
Pre-emptive U.S. strike and the Republic of Korea
the North Korean territory
Tags: assessment , China , A.Snesariev's competition , Eurasia , winner work of a competition of A.E.Snesarev