The Caucasus is a geopolitical region that has throughout history attracted the attention of the world with their bright, bloody and burning events. So, this year, renewed ethnic and political conflict, which is a continuation of the Karabakh war ended in 1994.

Recall that the armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh began at the end of September 2020. The subjects of these hostilities were the armed forces of Azerbaijan on the one hand and the armed formations of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) and Armenia on the other hand. It is worth noting that the NKR is an unrecognized state, whose territories are part of the Azerbaijan department[1]. According to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, the offensive operation of the Azerbaijani troops began in response to an armed attack from Armenia.

The main causes of the conflict, as always, remain the same-these are historical territorial claims due to the ethnic factor, economic as well as political motives. Of course, the main interest, in addition to the course of the armed actions and the peculiar ties with other states (Syria, Turkey), is the armistice agreement of November 10, 2020, which finally suspended the armed actions in this region. What factors influenced this truce?

To begin with, we note that the offensive operation of the troops of Ilham Aliyev[2] was extremely successful, which confirms the fact that the key city of Shusha was transferred to the control of Azerbaijan on 09.11.2020.So, we can assume that by this day the Azerbaijani troops had won over the Armenian army. In the evening of the same day (09.11.2020), a Russian Mi-24 helicopter crashed on the territory of Armenia, for which the Azerbaijani side claimed responsibility, explaining it as a tragic accident.

It should be noted that the Azerbaijani authorities acted decently and in good faith, admitting their guilt. For example, if we compare this situation with the events of 2015, when Turkey destroyed the Russian Su-24 during the war in Syria and did not admit its guilt, then Azerbaijan's behavior is seen as conscientious and honest.

This event seriously affected the course of military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh, as the Mi-24 was shot down on the territory of Armenia, a state that is part of the CSTO[3]. This means that the use of weapons on Russian equipment entails the possibility of the Russian Federation's participation in this military conflict, which creates a political incident for both sides of the Karabakh conflict.

The Russian side had two options for the development of further events: the first-entering the war against Azerbaijan on the claim of improper use of military force against the Russian Federation, but such behavior would be too emotional and short-sighted; the second-not responding to this incident, but this would suggest the inconsistency of the country's sovereignty, which, of course, could cause negative public opinion.

But the Russian Federation decided the issue of this incident in a completely different way, concluding a cease-fire agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh between the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan I. G. Aliyev, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia N. V. Pashinyan and By the President of the Russian Federation V. V. Putin of 10.11.2020, it can be said that V. V. Putin chose the third development option: he used the Mi-24 incident to influence the Republic of Azerbaijan and interrupt its military operation, as well as to show Armenia the groundlessness of their military actions.

This agreement declares:

1. End of hostilities;
2. Consolidation of the territories occupied by I. G. Aliyev's troops to the Republic of Azerbaijan;
3. Consolidation of the peacekeeping contingent and the Border Service of the FSB of Russia from the Russian Federation on the territory of the Lachin corridor;
4. Formation of a transport corridor between the western regions of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic;
5. Humanitarian conditions.

Thus, the following conclusions can be drawn from this document: 1) about 30% of Nagorno-Karabakh is assigned to Azerbaijan; 2) the Armenian troops were unable to put up a decent resistance to the Azerbaijani side (the media have already managed to call the consequences obtained during the signing of this agreement by N. V. Pashinyan as "the surrender of Armenia"); 3) Russia now directly demarcates the two warring countries, receiving a certain zone of direct influence in Transcaucasia.

Thus, in conclusion, we note that Russia has exported peace to the Caucasus throughout its history, which is why Moscow has been a kind of arbiter between Armenia and Azerbaijan from the very beginning of the conflict. Once again, the Russian Federation is choosing the right and, perhaps, the most far – sighted ways to resolve political issues, bringing stability to the world community, but at the same time not losing its own benefit (in this case, directly gaining and confirming its zone of influence in the Transcaucasus).

 

Lui Karina

 

List of literature

1. Collective Security Treaty of May 15, 1992 (CSTO)
2. Statement by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and President of the Russian Federation of 10.11.2020
3. Decision of the Kavburo of the RCP (b) on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh of 04.07.1921
4. Thomas de Waal " The Black Garden. Armenia and Azerbaijan between peace and war " - 2005
5. Electronic resource: https://southfront.org/nagorno-karabakh-the-multipolar-conflict/ (US media view on the Karabakh conflict)
6. Electronic resource: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54882564 (UK media's view on the Karabakh conflict)

[1] Decision of the Kavburo of the RCP (b) on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh of 04.07.1921 

[3] The Collective Security Treaty Organization is an international regional organization that has existed since May 15, 1992.

Tags: assessment , Russia , geopolitics , A.Snesariev's competition , Armenia