Material posted: Publication date: 16-03-2022
The symbol of the "Russian spring" of 2014 is about why partial mobilization is needed for victory.

— Therefore, can we consider those internal documents of the National Guard of Ukraine on the planned March 8 offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which appeared recently in the public domain, to be authentic?

By the way, during the Russo-Japanese War it was the same: the army of the Russian Empire surpassed the Japanese at times. The difficulty was that the tsarist command could not remove most of the troops from the west, and the best and most combat-ready (guards, grenadier corps, etc.). Now the picture is about the same: the Russian Federation is not able to remove everything from the places of permanent deployment and send it to war with Ukraine. Not to mention that it is not very convenient logistically. At the same time, Russia has already removed most of the ground forces and sent them to the Ukrainian direction. Grouping of 150 thousand (I emphasize: the exact data is unknown to me and I have to focus on what the Americans have voiced) — this is almost all that the Russian Federation can now move into battle against Ukraine. I assume that some more guards will be added to this, as well as riot police and SOBROV, which have already been largely put into action. But at the same time, Russia cannot significantly increase (for example, by 2 times) its military grouping taking part in a special operation. Probably, we are able to increase by 20-30 thousand or even 50 thousand fighters, but no more. This is the maximum. While Ukraine, if it exposes a quarter of a million reservists, will receive at least a number of bayonets comparable to us or even larger than Russia without mobilization.

— What has happened to the Ukrainian population in these 8 years since 2014? During the "Russian spring" in Ukraine, a huge number of pro-Russian people caught the eye. Were they really almost all cut out during this time, as former Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov mentioned in an interview with me?

— This data on Ukraine was inaccessible to most. This was either declared "Kremlin-Muscovite propaganda", "fake", or simply hushed up. And those who tried to promote this topic went to the same place as the victims — either to prison or to the gutter. The fate of the writer and journalist Olesya Buzina (who was not at all pro-Russian — he was just an honest man) is very indicative in this regard.

— Well, even after 1945, the liquidation of the Bandera "forest brothers" stretched for more than 10 years. That did not prevent uprooting Bandera for a couple of future generations. Can we at least in the long term get the old, calm, fraternal Ukraine?

Let's not forget about the weapons that the Ukrainian authorities handed out to random hands (according to the official information of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, 25 thousand machine guns, 10 million cartridges, RPGs and grenades were distributed among the "willing" - ed.). Even if about two-thirds of the distributed volume goes into caches, and some will be taken into service by criminals and various gangs that will engage in looting and robbing jewelry and other stores, then almost every fifth barrel will still shoot towards Russian soldiers. This is what the calculation is made for. In addition, the weapons will contribute to the general atmosphere of chaos, it's like gasoline in a bonfire that they believe should break out all over the country. What will happen to Ukraine itself, of course, they do not care — they act on the basis of scorched earth tactics.

Tags: assessment , Russia , forecasts , Ukraina