Russia is preparing a new oil and gas blockade. Price war Gazprom Qatar has already announced, moreover, that the latter does not depend on transit countries of gas. What could be the consequences of this attack on Russia – in intertechinvest, head of information and analytical Agency ANNA, developer of a unique system of analysis of the "Matrix of influence" and financial intelligence Marat Musin correspondent Накануне.RU.
Russia is preparing a new oil and gas blockade. Economic background is the main event in the middle East, as it will determine the future of such countries as Russia, China, Iran and Germany, I'm sure the doctor of economic Sciences Marat Musin. Let's not forget how easily the Soviet Union was destroyed: it was enough to at the behest of the US, Saudi Arabia at the right moment brought down the price of oil. But in relation to gas before the United States was not of such a mechanism, and now it appeared. In the face of controlled by ExxonMobil Qatar, with its rich gas-condensate fields of the North, the modern industry of gas liquefaction and strategies of price dumping, we got a dangerous rival to Gazprom and not only in Europe. Price war Gazprom Qatar has already announced, moreover, that the latter does not depend on transit countries of gas. What could be the consequences of this attack on Russia – in an interview with theeconomist, head of information and analytical Agency ANNA, developer of a unique system of analysis of the "Matrix of influence" and financial intelligence Marat Musin to the correspondent the day Before.EN.
Question: Tell us why now the analogy with what happened in the 80-ies? Our economy has once again become very vulnerable to complete collapse?
Marat Musin: Indeed, it is necessary to understand that the Soviet Union was destroyed rather easily due to the then circumstances. By that time accumulated a lot of contradictions that was easy to play. It was enough that at the behest of the US, Saudi Arabia at the right moment brought down the price of oil. The price of oil dropped to $ 12 a barrel, the main source of income was zero, and after a short time the Union collapsed. But in relation to gas before the United States did not have such a mechanism. And the presence of Russia's 30% of world gas reserves, at first glance, has guaranteed our country a steady demand for it and the resulting status of the oil and gas superpower." Now Gazprom does not see any threat, but the threat is there and very serious. Unfortunately, we must recognize that today the mechanism of a new blockade, the US has added. In the face of controlled by ExxonMobil Qatar, with its rich gas-condensate fields of the North, the modern industry of gas liquefaction and strategies of price dumping, we got a dangerous rival to Gazprom and not only in Europe. All conflicts and disputes related to the "Nord stream", the construction of alternative branches, completely reformatted in connection with the events in the middle East. The war in Libya, the attack on Syria prove that there is some regrouping.
Question: what do You communicate?
Marat Musin: This is due to the need to control the southern part of the Mediterranean sea, where is Libya. And it allows a completely different way to play the American card. The problem, in General, tied to the American economy. The main background of the events in the middle East is motivated by economic, as it will determine the future of such countries as Russia, China, Iran and Germany. For "energy superpower" Russia is rich in hydrocarbons, Iran today seems natural to provide your energy resources Europe and China. For the latter to get them out of Russia, Iran and Algeria, regardless of the wishes of the United States. Including for a major EU economy. Price war Gazprom Qatar has already announced, moreover, that the latter does not depend on transit countries of gas.
Question: Qatar beat us in the transportation of liquefied natural gas for 15 years...
Marat Musin: Yes, this is a great fleet of 54 special courts – gazoprovodiv South Korean-built class Q-max (270 thousand tons of LNG) and Q-flex (166). But the risks of overlapping the Strait of Hormuz by Iran will not allow the Qatar guaranteed to replace Gazprom in Europe. It is necessary to lay a gas pipeline, as a minimum, to the Mediterranean, as a maximum, through Turkey and on to Europe. Really this can only be done through Syria what a strategic ally of Iran will never go. Note that a rich Deposit of North is located at the border of Qatar and Iran, where it is called South Pars.
I mean, that's where the wind blows. Qatar is not necessarily to completely replace Gazprom. You can just denote the vector of events. We have already lost 3% of the European market, Qatar we took. In a situation of a sharp increase Qatar Russia will develop instantly. If this attack is completed by the fact that Russia formally and informally comes under the control of the United States, the more they will begin to tighten the screws. When all threads are under the control of American satellites, of course, they will begin to raise prices. Then they accomplish the double task while maintaining the position of the dollar. Impacting on the economy of Europe, mainly Germany and France in this case is actually used.
Question: that's why it appears that the stumbling block now Syria? And then Iran?
Marat Musin: in order to supply flows to Europe from the South under the control of US satellites, should the dismemberment of Syria, the coup in Algeria and the bombing of the Iranian fields. In Syria must be either the Americans controlled the leadership of the country, or part of the territory should go into the buffer. I mean, we are talking about dismemberment.
Question: a gas attack on Russia when it can start?
Marat Musin: it is worth remembering how the USA spread to Europe and Russia talking about the second wave of the crisis. In March, they were forced to admit that there is no crisis. No recession in 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, according to the models of our colleagues, Professor Sergey Gubanov in the real sector of the US economy is not expected. But the respite ends, therefore, now need to have a strategic plan that will allow you to keep the weight of the dollar and to bring to their knees the economies of China, Europe and Russia. It would be foolish to think that the United States in the next 12 months will not attempt to work in advance and any way to prolong the agony of imperialism of the dollar. Everyone is trying to get out of calculations for the supply of hydrocarbons in dollars, but the Americans can not avoid.
That's why I think that the set of scenarios the option of the gas insulation through the Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the ratio of "price-quality" the most acceptable for the United States. Now we can go on gas pipeline through the territory of Jordan and Syria to Turkey – and thus they take the European market. That is, in fact, the Americans even do not spend money.
Question: the Construction of the pipeline will be a major blow to us?
Marat Musin: Either they will bear a terminal for liquefied into a safe zone in the Mediterranean, or will drag on the pipeline, but it is advantageous to build up to 2 thousand km, then advantageously the liquefied gas to carry. The pressure will be very strong in the next 12 months. Otherwise, if the Americans do nothing, many can get out of the dollar area, to start settlements in national currencies, to create independent from the Americans system of international financial settlements.
Question: But we saw both economic and political preconditions of this pressure on the part of Qatar? Qatar out of joint projects which were previously reached agreements, such as the "Yamal LNG", the "Ural industrial – Ural Polar", and then in Qatar beat our Ambassador, and it should not be virtually any response.
Marat Musin: They have not come out of these projects. Gazprom still does not understand that Qatar has thrown us. They just said, well, guys, let's be friends, will be many billions. It all makes Exxon Mobil . The main partner of Qatar in the gas sector are Exxon Mobil (US) BP (UK) with their advanced technology in the field of gas liquefaction. When spineless Emir in Qatar hard is Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim, and at the same time, a prominent businessman, whose headquarters is in London. His personal fortune is estimated at 3-4 billion dollars, not counting the $ 90 billion Fund of the Qatari investment management in its fiduciary management.
In Syria, he builds whole towns, yacht clubs, cottage for 5 million dollars worth. All sold out. That is, it is still trying to become the ruler of the resort area of Syria. Qatar successfully pulling gas OPEC and Russia, which renders meaningless our continued stay there. At the instruction of Prime Minister-corrupt bin Jassim given up on 5 major billions of dollars of projects with Russia, including, as You mentioned, the "Yamal LNG", and 18 projects worth several hundred million dollars. Who do we have in Ukraine, we have done bad things, the delivery blocked? Exxon Mobil. All seriously enough. This far-reaching plans, from my point of view. But isn't that man Russia will kneel?
Remember that Qatar and Saudi Arabia have become the centres of international terrorism, they hundred soldiers were sent to Libya to fight and admitted it. Ideological cover and mobilization of Islamist militants in Qatar is the Chairman of the world Council of Islamic theologians, Yusuf al Qaradawi, the former head of the Egyptian "Muslim brothers", whose strong influence on the Emir and a high degree of Russophobia should not be underestimated. Especially given his active support of the Chechen terrorists. That's why the Qatari channel "al Jazeera" from morning till night deals with the problems of Syria, and Qatar transporters of the air force in Jordan and Turkey are moved mountains of weapons for the free Syrian army, are openly funded by the units of the Syrian terrorists and Islamic militants. Concerning the influence of the ideology of Wahhabi-Salafism Yusuf al Qaradawi on business in the middle East give just one typical example: in a conversation with my friend Qaradawi said that as soon as he removed the Prime Minister, foreign Minister and Minister of internal Affairs of Egypt and there established he needed the Islamist government. Three days later, all three officials resigned. That is, such a beautiful layout. What is Qatar? 40 years ago this country was not, the children of pirates and shepherds. But there has developed a gas field, opened a military base.
As for beating Ambassador, here the Qataris not to give descent – it was necessary immediately to answer, put the question in the UN security Council. It is necessary to react very harshly with us are at war, just other methods. The economic phase of the war could begin to destabilize the situation in the North Caucasus due to these above reasons.
Question: In this case, the question is, why would Americans again to roll the price of oil? Why gas?
Marat Musin: Our experts understand that when the attack on Russia, they're prices will beat for two to three months, it's not a problem. But if Qatar has gas and, in parallel, begin strikes on oil – we definitely are "stacked". It is completely transparent plan, as there are distributed.
Question: recently, Putin spoke in the Duma and drew the attention not entirely on this issue, but, nevertheless, said that "shale gas could reshape the market structure, and domestic gas company must respond to these challenges." Is this evidence of understanding of the threat? And what's the response we should give to the fact that, judging by Your words, we can expect?
Marat Musin: first, can we oppose this Union between Russia and Germany according to the formula of supply is high and German technology to Russia, especially in the field of space exploration, microelectronics, and propulsion engineering, in exchange for a guaranteed supply of Germany with petroleum from Russia. Secondly, the construction of the strategic axis of Syria-Iran-China-India-Russia. Thirdly, the creation of the independent U.S. international systems of financial calculations.
In the middle East is a war, the interests of Russia there, they are affected. Clearly, this is a war against China and Russia. This is not a regional scale war, and global. This problem is not Syria or Iran, and the problem of the United States, China, Russia and Germany. Shale gas may be a Scam, but this problem is a serious threat, and Gazprom must respond, the government, all of the analytical service must adequately assess these risks. We need to build a strategy of preventive measures – that is, as Americans, should be a pre-emptive response. Roughly speaking, either we die or dies Qatar. The third is not given.
Tags: Russia , geopolitics , oil , Saudi Arabia