While Russia with a sinking heart, waiting for the results of the census of 2010, Western experts, based on their data, has already announced a national disaster in our country. According to the author of the book "Demographic crisis of Russia in time of peace", Professor of the American enterprise Institute's Nicholas Eberstadt, since the collapse of the USSR the number of murders, suicides, accidents with a fatal outcome in Russia is comparable with statistics in the countries, but still coming from military conflicts. As examples, he cites Angola, Burundi and Sierra Leone.
"It's not just a vast demographic crisis, it is far-reaching all-pervading crisis of human resources", - quotes Eberstadt BBC.
The Eberstadt and a number of other American experts assure that the effects will overwhelm Russia in the next 20 years. The problem is too dramatic declines in the working-age population will lead to the fact that not only will change the position of Russia in the international arena, but also its borders and political system, say scientists.
So disappointing for our country the findings of researchers pushed solely statistical data, which in comparison even with the new EU member States countries of the former Soviet bloc is through the roof. And we are not talking only about violent deaths. One of the main factors is the very high mortality from cardiovascular diseases.
Give birth to the Russian woman properly, this indicator is comparable with the statistics for Western Europe. But, according to Wimbush Enders, senior Vice President at the Hudson Institute, is not enough. Speaking about Russia's future, in expressions it does not hesitate: "there is no Way back. It is unlikely that Russia will be saved or will save herself from this depletion of human capital, which will make it uncompetitive or even unviable".
As a result, in his opinion, such a state as Russia today, soon they will cease to exist. So here, I am sure Wimbush, should run: "For many Russians, especially the educated and professionally mobile, this will become a motivation to leave Russia".
Scientists admit that the Russian authorities take certain efforts to combat the demographic crisis and preserve, even improve the quality of human capital, but, according to the same Eberstadt, these efforts are insufficient. The reason, says the researcher, that the Russian leaders had not yet realized the true scale of the impending disaster.
"Russia is a modern paradox, and perhaps unique, contemporary paradox: while the high availability of education there is a shortage of human capital," the affected Eberstadt.
Experts on the fate of Russia, noting the low level of education and high - alcohol, advised the Kremlin to focus on developing technologies that in some way have to compensate for the lack of a professional workforce.
It is not excluded that Moscow, seeking to preserve its status in the international arena, actively take on the military build-up, adds Wimbush.
"I would not be surprised if Russia will become even more active player in the market of nuclear technologies, the Remaining influence, the country will be extended to other countries to offset the existing balance to their advantage. And to consider Russia as a force, affecting the balance, but not the leader and not even as a key partner in the relationship or the unions," concluded the scientist.
Recall that it was about the fight for human capital, as one of the main tasks of the state in the coming years, said President Dmitry Medvedev in his Budget message.
"It is necessary to aspire to growth of scientific potential of our country, the accumulation of intellectual property, provision for these purposes of continuity of generations in the field of scientific research and technological development, attract and retain in her youth", - the document says.
The President considers it necessary to give "serious attention" not only education, but also the health of citizens, formation of healthy lifestyle and environment for higher labor and creative activity.