Why is the war in the XXI century has become economically unprofitable
Material posted: Publication date: 29-05-2015
Today, the war is not only criminal and unethical, as it has always been: it is also a direct deduction of the national wealth. But, as before, the world will need many more years to fully accept the new reality.

The most peace century

70 years ago in Europe the most terrible has ended in the history war, and on continent world time has come. And whatever fragile it at times seemed, its duration already specifies in phenomenal difference of the present from last historical conditions.
The world proceeding in historically main centre of armed oppositions already of many decades, has provided unprecedented economic progress of the Old World. Today very few people reflects on it, but 70 peace years are more than Europe has worried with 1500 for 1918. Life expectancy in 28 EU countries with 1946 for 2013 has grown for 23 years whereas in the middle of a XIX-th century life expectancy in many of these countries did not exceed 40 years. The economy of Europe for post-war years has grown in 8,5 times that approximately corresponds to its growth for 600 years, from the beginning XIII till the end of XVIII century. About scales of technological improvements, about life improvement of quality, for all its inhabitants I also do not speak about transformation of Europe into the convenient house. The long world has brought to mankind absolutely new quality of economic progress.

Economic consequences of the seventy-year world have appeared are very various - and they are connected not so much with increase of value of the world, how many with decrease in value of wars. Throughout centuries war was one of the main tools of maintenance of economic success of the state. Spoils of war and a tribute always подпитывали leading empires. The robbery of the American possession has for a while made Spain leading power of Europe. In courses of Napoleonic wars France has received from the won countries of the contribution on 535 million francs, but in 1871 Prussia itself has shown it the account already on 5 млрд francs. On conditions of the Versailles world to Germany huge reparations which, however, have not been paid have been imposed, and revanchism and nazism became a result.

After 1945 a considerable quantity of private property has been taken out to the USSR from Germany - but it, as well as reparations to the western countries more than 3 thousand factories and power stations, about one million beasts, could not compensate even a small share put by war of purely material damage. For this reason the post-war world has started to be under construction on almost universal understanding of that war has turned to economically unprofitable enterprise.

War as despair gesture

It has changed all geopolitical realities. Military control over territories began to demand the increasing efforts, and the benefits brought by it, - to aspire to zero. All colonial system has been dismantled, and the countries which have not acquired a new trend, have appeared are humiliated in the maximum degree - as France in Indochina and Algeria or Portugal in Angola and Mozambique. Crash of colonial empires has transformed the world into originally economic space: now any raw materials which the peripheral countries can deliver, are more favourable buy, than take away; nonrecoverable debts to write off easier, than to direct fleet to ports of the states-defaulters; for maintenance of stability of the currency the successful economy, instead of the stolen gold reserves is necessary.

By the end of 1970th years it became clear that the big war between leading powers is impossible, and wars of leading powers with the peripheral countries are useless. That who has not understood - to Soviet Union and the United States, - the history has explained it in Afghanistan, Vietnam and Iraq. The understanding of became the major lesson of the long world of second half ХХ and the XXI-st century beginnings that the war historically looking an indicator of force of the state, has turned to simple gesture of despair.

Экономизация the world has caused globalisation - the most impressing economic process of our time. Globalisation differs radically from a westernisation sometimes mixed with it - the process consisting in перенятии lagging behind countries (or imposing with it) an expert of the advanced powers and supported with massive migration from "centre" on "periphery". By the XX-th century end trading, investment and migratory streams have appeared are distributed on planet regions more proportionally, than before, - and as a result the governments which defined earlier destinies of the, and is frequent also strangers, the people, have appeared are compelled to interface the policy to interests of global investors, penetration problems on the new markets and attraction in the country of qualified personnel.

There were the branches which largest companies cannot exist in national borders; there were the markets which behaviour cannot cope the separate states. These factors began to limit value any more only military force, but also traditionally understood sovereignty. And despite protests традиционалистов which it is enough in any society, it is not necessary to doubt that value of the sovereignty, as well as the role of the states, will be and to decrease further.

The end of military innovations

Globalisation has generated unprecedented earlier requirement for synchronisation of processes occurring in the world that has caused information revolution to life. New quality of communications has accelerated technological progress and has provided involving in creative process in hundreds times большего numbers of people, than what has been concentrated before at research institutes, basically financed by the state. It has soon led to advancing development of civil technologies in comparison with military men. The same Internet has been created on the technological platform designed with the military purposes, but it has developed especially in the civil environment - as well as mobile communication, modern optics, liquid crystal panels and other materials which are now used by military men.

The end of 1980th years became last period when the pure transfer of military technologies in civil sector was fixed - and already about 2000 stream was developed in the opposite side. In new conditions not only war, but also "investments" into its preparation though can is illusory to promote gross national product increase, in practice become a pure deduction from national wealth.

Today war looks not only criminal and unethical what it was always, but still senseless and economically counterproductive. As
before, more many years is required to the world as early as completely to accustom with this new reality, to cease to be fond of Makiavelli and Shmittom, to re-read books of Haushofera and Makindera. War will proceed still for a long time on periphery of zones of influence of great powers, but they (that will want to remain great and in a new millenium) will become more and more adherents - and бенефициарами - extending space of the world.

This new trend looks today much more distinct, than it seemed to idealists on a boundary XIX and the XX-th centuries. And I am convinced that the mankind (behind an exception, maybe, inhabitants of the countries and regions, whose politicians live in other reality) does not name more our epoch an epoch premilitary. It will be the best monument to all to those who was lost on fields of battles of great war of the middle of the XX-th century.

Vladislav Inozemtsev


Source: <http://daily.rbc.ru/opinions/economics/12/05/2015/554fd3739a794711de3d8c91>