In 1992, Stanley Freeman Druckenmiller, along with his partner, friend and colleague of George Soros held a very successful "speculative attack" of the twentieth century. In the words of the financial press, this Duo financiers, who led the Quantum Fund, "broke the Bank of England" within a few days and earned about a billion pounds on the depreciation of the British currency. Later the way of Druckenmiller who loved peace and preferred to stay in the shade, and Soros, who always was willing to openly engage in world politics sharply divided. But both speculator became legends in the financial world, because they humiliated the old Central Bank of the West, "gone with the loot" after the successful RAID and nothing for them it was not.
The other day a mysterious and unsociable partner Soros decided to give the first in many years a detailed interview. From that interview shows that he has no good news to report about the global economy and he feels badly for Donald Trump. But the most important thing in the interview was the sudden recognition of Druckenmiller in that the seeds of a new global economic crisis has not only sown, but will soon be rising.
"We took the causes of the last crisis and tripled them. And we did it on a global level," admitted Druckenmiller, although he did not specify whom he meant by "we."
However, the legendary speculator has a ready list of those who, in his opinion, are guilty of a future crisis. For the Russian ear is very unusual not to hear in the list to blame Russia, Putin, Russian hackers or at worst, China. No, Druckenmiller believes that to blame is the political and monetary authorities of the United States (over the past ten years) and no one else.
The position of the American billionaire is framed not as a warning, but as a sentence. He accuses American politicians and heads of the us Federal reserve that they in some way "distorted capitalism", which can not normally operate at near-zero interest rates, and it is a distortion which made the next crisis is not only inevitable, but also much larger than the crisis of 2008-2009.
The billionaire stressed that attempts to solve with the new debts are problems that are caused by old debts, doomed to failure. Moreover, he stated that, in addition to economic issues, he is concerned about extreme levels of social inequality, which led to American economic policy.
"The biggest accelerator of social inequality was the program of quantitative easing (the fed program, under which banks and bankers were saved from bankruptcy at public expense. — Approx. ed.) there is even nothing to argue about," — said Druckenmiller and points to the second component of the forthcoming social explosion — the Internet, "which broadcasts information about the gap between the levels of life" all inhabitants of the planet. As an example, he cites the owner of the company "Amazon" Jeff Bezos: "look, in the last 48 hours there were dozens of articles about what the state of the Bezos — more than $ 150 billion. It looks a normal person?!"
Despite the fact that the interview Druckenmiller was published on a relatively obscure Internet channel Realvision, his thesis ran to the world's financial media at the speed of a forest fire.
The fact that the farther, the more difficult of the prophets to announce the coming crisis fools, fanatics and conspiracy theorists. When about the coming crisis and social explosion can speak authoritatively financiers, they Willy-nilly have to listen to. Moreover, the journalists of Bloomberg, who analyzed interviews of Druckenmiller, indicate that he was not the first who drew attention to the challenges ahead for the global economy. In recent months several very influential figures in wall street spoke on the same topic and presented to the public not less gloomy forecasts.
Kenneth Cordele Griffin, the billionaire Manager of the giant hedge Fund Citadel Investment Group, recently warned that too much debt will be the "seeds" of future economic decline. Citadel is a company that is known for its part in the global financial markets and a colossal income, and running the Griffin is a capital equal to the GDP of such countries as Latvia or Paraguay. So the big players never make ill-considered statements, for the mistakes in public, too have a negative impact on their business.
In June of this year to the list of prophets of the crisis was joined by another billionaire, financier and mathematician Jeffrey Gundlach who owns the investment Fund DoubleLine Capital. He believes that the starting point of the next crisis will also be too much debt, and pays particular attention to the fact that the us budget deficit and us national debt grow in the backdrop of increasing dollar rates and that this may lead to "fiscal challenges" for Washington.
However, it would be a mistake to assume that the foreknowledge of the crisis is a prerogative only of billionaire financiers. Feeling that after "credit Bank" will be followed by economic crisis hangover, appear even in mainstream financial publications. "Get ready for the next financial crisis" is this title a respectable The Wall Street Journal has pleased their readers in the anniversary of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, which started the crisis of 2008. "The ways of solving problems after 2008 piled even more debt," — says columnist for major business publications USA.
And then there's another category of financial market participants who can not speak publicly about future crises, but who are on duty due to these crises and to prepare to take to protect them from the action. Central banks, and Western analysts now note the anomalous increase of gold reserves of Russia, China, India and other countries. Even the Polish Central Bank, despite the fact that the country is not threatened with any sanctions from the USA and related political risks suddenly started buying gold for the first time in several decades.
The situation is slightly reminiscent of "Titanic": the deck band plays and the passengers still have fun, although the meeting with the iceberg was inevitable. At this time, the most prudent already lowered the boat and fighting for places in them. The second wave of the global financial crisis hurt everyone, but when the Titanic Western economies will meet with the iceberg, our boat has all the chances to be at a safe distance.
Tags: financial center , economy