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Analysis GEAB "Global systemic crisis 2013": the Huge statistical fog forces you to shift from navigation devices for the visual
Material posted: Publication date: 13-04-2013

In the January issue of the GEAB, our team wrote the following: "Among the short-term economic indicators which describe only what occurred in a week, others who are easily manipulated by governments to reflect the need for filing messages, and finally others which no longer have any significance in today's world, economic reality is portrayed, at least very bad, even if disguised, these numbers, which, however, is guided by business, banks and even countries.

As an example: just because exchange rate fluctuations is not possible to say which country is the sixth largest country – Brazil or UK. This statistical fog makes it impossible to reliable navigation, the importance of which in these times of crisis is of paramount importance". Whether it is the fruit of wilful manipulation of the players in their attempts to survive or the result of the extreme volatility of the base for calculations (such as the value of currencies and the U.S. dollar, in particular), the trend is actually confirmed.

Credible and relevant indicators of the state of the world economy, political and social situation is still extremely necessary in order to pass through the crisis without losses. But in the present time the world's major restructuring those used by governments or business are, at best, useless, and harmful at worst. That's why in this issue of the GEAB, our team decided to elaborate on which indicators reflect the true situation, and which embellish it. This work allows us to emphasize that distorted not only the indicators but also in how they are interpreted or the reasons studied which make them change.

In a world that turns so many "phantom assets" or doubtful debts, so many opaque or worthless derivatives, Finance is increasingly detached from reality. Consequently, as we will see later, financial indicators (particularly stock exchange prices of the shares) should be interpreted with great caution. Similarly, the weekly soap Opera "economic life" keeps us in a constant state of tension – sometimes publications of numbers "confidence" or "sentiment," sometimes statements of Central banks... But the basics can not evolve as fast and have really no use for this method Coue (a French psychologist, developed a method of psychotherapy based on autosuggestion; approx., which is to hold the data of a psychological nature. Such information short term planning more helps to hide a deeply painful state of the economy than a real impact, according to the reality, especially in these days of grave crisis.

That up to the present statistics, the method of calculating these numbers sometimes do not reflect the state of economic landscape – the same applies, for example, and the figures on unemployment or inflation, the two, whatever it was, well rooted in reality, the criteria is rightly playing a significant role. But, as says the popular saying, "failing to bring the fever down, broke the thermometer". And in this case, the challenge lies in deciphering statistics to obtain more clear pictures, as we do below with reference to the United States.

As well as statistics that describe the real economy (employment, consumption, international trade, energy consumption, etc.) and virtual part of the economy (de-industrialization, debt), it is interesting to consider the socio-political reality by means of indicators that reflect poverty, demographics, conflicts, political deadlock, etc.

Ultimately, certain General indicators, like gross domestic product (GDP) or foreign exchange rates should obviously be guidelines, but you need to remember that it is possible to artificially add to the first "virtual" economy (bad assets of banks, for example, or the Central Bank) and the second temporarily disturb speculation, although in the long run, they still really reflect the state of the economies of the various countries relative to each other.

In short, it is a matter of constant critical evaluation of daily statistics, which give us. In the next section we apply this injunction mainly to the United States because the greatest degree of distortion is expressed in them, and as for Europe, in the Anglo-Saxon media that happens every day.

All the more important to find good targets and eliminate false because we are seeing a real paradigm shift from the system established by the United States, or, in other words, the collapse of the world they have created. They retains its role for several decades only because they could put themselves above the rules of the global game because of the superiority and indispensability of their currency – the dollar. When that advantage was challenged, they had become just one of the other powers. It requires a lot of adjustments that, for example, is expressed in the bottomless trade deficit, deindustrialization, or the debt of the country with serious consequences for its impact and quality of life.

Countries in the US sphere of influence, mainly the United Kingdom and Japan, which were taking their cues from the principles of the American economic model and has benefited from its privileged position in relation to his patron, are suffering, too. Europe, close to the American economic model, especially since the fall of the Berlin wall, but whose integration projects aimed at increasing its independence from the United States, was partly drawn into the vortex, but its structural features provide the tools by which she can get away with. At the same time in 2013, Gale is not only Western countries but also the whole world, including the BRICS presents a new power, which are beginning to emerge bubbles caused by the use in the United States and then the global economy the easy money of the fed.

For example, the position of Europe, it is far from ideal, characterized by high unemployment, barely alive, or negative growth, and now the political crisis, undermining the seeds of confidence in the Euro markets. However, European countries do not need to make such painful adjustments, as the United States. In the case of the Eurozone, the necessary changes are far from complete, still to a considerable extent has already begun. Remember that according to our team, the EU has no future in its current form when he is constantly constrained by British procrastination, destroyed by uncontrolled expansion, which it mostly is pushing Washington, paralyzed ossified Brussels offices, and, moreover, suffering from the severe democratic deficit. Powerful would Euroland, naturally bound together by a single currency, flexible and free from any dead weight, forms a new motor, is able to breathe life into the driving force necessary to resolve its problems; in this sense he is the only bearer of future decisions on the continent. As we will analyse later, these driving forces, which, as predicted, LPP, allowed him to overcome the storm that struck him in 2011-2012, will enable him now, as the transformation of the Euro crisis, politically, to answer the main political challenge of European integration – its democratization (democratization, without which, in spite of all his assets, he would not be future).

Finally, before giving our recommendations and the GlobalEurometre data, we will present our analysis of the geopolitical situation in Korea, the new battlefield of proxy wars between China and the United States.

Financial markets: the indicator to be read backwards

Accordingly, so let's start with the symbol of American recovery, the stock exchange, which publishes incredible results: Dow Jones, S&P 500 or Nasdaq or broke their records of 2008, or very close to it (1). The one and only reason of this growth is clear and even officially recognized stock exchange owe their salvation solely to the fed, whose liquidity injections to artificially pump up the stock exchange. Thus, we are talking about the indicator which undergoes a manipulation and definitely does not reflect the state of the real economy, whose goal is to restore confidence through the rise of stock exchanges, and thereby to revitalize the sphere of consumption. In a situation where consumer confidence remains below the levels of the period 1995-2007 (excluding the fact that the expectations index for the next 6 months even below 7 points), guarantees that this task will ever be performed, no.

The consumer confidence index in the United States, 1978-2013

However, even this "light period", undeniable a priori, should be considered in the future. Record whether it is when Dogons compared to gold, in certain respects, a more reliable measure than the US dollar?

Dow Jones versus gold price, 2003-2013

Or how to be delighted with the data of the stock exchange, when the volume at 40-50 percent less than before the crisis, and so weak that prices move only speculation casino style?

The volume of trade new York stock exchange

It is clear that the exchange is completely divorced from the real economy and because I have no more relation to reality. It is significant that in the United States, the distortion is maximum, while in Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 since 2009 remained at a standstill, like many other European national indexes (for example, the CAC40 index (stock index of France; ed.)), and SSE composite index (Shanghai stock exchange; approx.) despite the Chinese dynamism is reduced for more than two years (!). This lack of relevance of the indicators can be illustrated further by the example of a sudden rise in the Nikkei (+40% in less than 4 months) at a time when Japan is in its worst condition, having these last two years of unsustainable debt and excessive trade deficit. The exchange is, if what they say anything about the level of virtualization of the economy, the magnitude of the speculative phenomenon and the degree of a country's debt. The team of ELP never attributed to movements in stock market values more than a very insignificant; however, in a certain way we could interpret their movements as opposed to what they are supposed to say: the higher the stock market, the distressed real situation in the economy, and Vice versa.

Numbers, preparirovanie thus in the remainder of this article, are data of unemployment, currencies, real estate, trade balance and consumption.



(1) That doesn't have to be good news when you know about what happened the last time the stock exchange has reached these levels...


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