The latest news: with 2014 for 2017 because of the western sanctions and wreck of the oil prices Russia will miss 600 mlrd dollars (for comparison: volume of gold and exchange currency reserves - 370 billion), our Fatherland was included into number 15 most «unfortunate economy» world. Alas, even if the world will cope with the failed oil prices and exchange indexes, the holiday in our street all the same will not be: decline is caused not only external pressure, but also own underdevelopment, archaism, and prospects are rather foggy. In a situation when our ruling circles also do not think of structural reorganisation of economy, probably, it is necessary to hope that "will cover" not us one - forecasts freezing blood suffice.
Growth for the sake of growth
About world economy degradation warned in advance, to last year's pique of the oil prices and a panic at world stock exchanges. The Managing director of International currency fund Kristin Lagard - and that has noted, here five years as in developing states growth delay is observed. President Reserve Bank of India Raguram Radzhan, in the past the group economist of the International currency fund, for three years the predicted crisis of 2008, was where more frankly. «The monetary policy of developed countries creates the conditions, similar that have provoked 80 years ago Great depression», - he warned in July of last year.
The alarm of Radzhana was caused, first of all, by a policy of "quantitative softening» (QE) Central Banks of the USA, Europe and Japan which after world crisis of the end of the last decade have rushed to recover the economy by means of "presses" - enormous injections of monetary weight (in the majority of developed countries it for some years has increased in 2-3 times, and in the USA - in four, as a whole issue has exceeded 8 trln dollars) and low, even negative, as in Europe and Japan, interest rates.
Thus, export of these countries became more competitive, unemployment receded, the raw materials, real estate, securities grew in the price, banks bought up state bonds that allowed the states to do still the big debts (so, for years of presidency of Barack Obama the state debt of the USA has exceeded 19 trln dollars, it more than the American gross national product). The monetary authorities have begun to enjoy, "currency war", «war of devaluations» has begun. «The problem consists in that, - diagnosed Radzhan, - that, trying to achieve growth by means of QE as though from air, we do not create this growth, and actually we take away it each other».
Reagan has inflated a state debt of the USA on 200 %, but has left to Soviet Union schitannye years. Novosti/Jury Abramochkin RIA
Really, economy of the different countries showed good growth, but world trade thus in rates lost: throughout three last decades it twice advanced growth of national national produces, and now has given with 6 (and even 10 %, as in 2004) to 3 %. "Ambush" and in glut by the goods of the solvent markets, and in gradual rise in price of manufacture at «world factory» - in China and South East Asia, and in serious restrictions of global movement of capitals, with perepugu entered by the national authorities after 2008, and in localisation of manufactures. But as the head of the Indian bank prompts, is far not only.
Establishing negative rates, Central Banks counted that commercial banks not begin to place the available assets on correspondent accounts, and will direct them is in a category of credit and investments - in manufacture. But have miscalculated (by the way, the similar situation was observed and at us). As the prices for the goods were established by not so much balance of supply and demand, how many, as has formulated Raguram Radzhan, «from air», exchange passion, investors have switched again the attention from real production sector on virtual, speculative. In the conditions of surplus of monetary weight at stock exchanges price "bubbles" again began to be inflated. The fear of a deflation (when it is not enough money, demand for them big, and real sector, on the contrary, sharply depreciates, dragging off behind itself all economy) pushed Central Banks to throw out new portions of liquidity, so to say, to fill in a fire with gasoline, to support demand in a literal sense "at any cost" - inflating the prices further, on a spiral: Reviving after a failure of 2008 of the price for some resources - oil, metals, grain - in turn sterilised money issue.
Everyone - for itself
It is clear that infinitely this race could not proceed. Eventually, the markets have appeared under the threat of so-called «liquidity traps» when money much and can be even more, but the further decrease in the interest rate investors perceive already as a disturbing signal, direct in a cash, leaving instead of stock exchanges - ruins. The first after a drama of 2008 the collapse has happened, as we remember, summer of 2014: for the reason for "slate revolution» in the USA oil has fallen in price twice. The second blow has come a year later because of confusion at the Chinese both all other stock exchanges and yuan devaluation to dollar on 1,9 %. As consequence - continuation "sezhivanija" the prices for different kinds of raw materials.« Such falling of the prices bares problems with which fight Brazil, Indonesia, the republic of South Africa and all other large raw countries. They invested in projects on extraction of natural resources billions, are compelled to serve huge debts, as a rule, in US dollars, however cannot sell ore, copper or rubber, especially at the prices put in accounting. Superfluous capacities lead to reduction of prices worldwide. If five years ago the ton of iron ore cost 180 dollars today for it not to receive and forty », - described a situation magazine" Profile ".
As a result, if for the last decade the volume of capitals from developed countries in the developing has grown four times, to 1 trln dollars last year, for the first time for 30 years, scale outflow - much more, than on that trillion (negative balance - more than 500 mlrd dollars) it was observed. Money has run from Azerbaijan, Angola, Brazil, Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Turkey, Russia, Philippines and even from Hong Kong and South Korea (it is expected that this year, besides, Southern Africa and Latin America will face complexities). Well and as a share of developing states in world gross national product, having doubled for the last quarter of the century, now makes neither much nor a little about 40 %, suffer not only they, but also their western partners - suppliers of the equipment, services, investors. Within 2015 in a default condition it appears more than hundred international companies, in January 2016 indexes of business activity show record rates of falling, at the same time on balances of the largest world companies pine almost 2,5 trln dollars: nobody would like to risk.
Forbidden "the Islamic state" commits excesses on an ancient trading way. Accident?
Simultaneously in described years new "flashpoints" - in the North Africa, in the Near East were lighted, the international terrorism attacked Europe and Asia. It has led to derivation of enormous means from peace branches in military, and also has frightened off crowds of tourists and has even more urged on flight of capitals from the developing states stained with blood by terrorists. Thus, the indirect damage appeared at 10-20 times more, than directly from acts of terrorism. Only in 2014 of loss of global economy from actions of terrorists have exceeded 50 mlrd dollars (losses from violent crimes in general have made 1,7 trillion). Most of all from terrorism and its consequences Iraq, Jordan, Yemen, Lebanon, Nigeria, Turkey have undergone. We will add natural and technogenic accidents - all together leads to destruction of logistics, industrial and trading chains.
The world loses a former openness. 30 years of trading boom of the government of developing states prior to a minimum have lowered import duties and have practically settled this resource of support, the governments of developed countries, on the contrary, come back to protectionist measures, for the first 9 months of last year experts have counted more than twice more than such decisions, than in 2009. Negotiations on development of international trade within the limits of the WTO continue to slip. In general, experts speak about «extreme easing of world trade» and, moreover, about end of an era "turboglobalizatsii". «Never thought that I will simply pray, that the prices for oil were high. The high prices for oil» are very necessary to the world, - one of the European financiers complains.
With gratitude last year was seen off by the few, in "honours pupils" go India (about 8 % of growth), Vietnam and China (approximately on 7 %, in Heavenly Empire delay, but its indicators all the same impress on the general background). More or less vigorous mood at other countries of Asian-Pacific region - Australia, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, on Philippines. Reserved optimism - in the USA (+2 % «with copecks», in the end of the last year there on pleasures for the first time for seven years have raised credit cost, having increased discount rate FRS by 0,25 %), in the European Union (a gain less than 2 %, however, Europe is non-uniform: Great Britain, Hungary, Ireland, Spain, Poland, Romania, Czechia - on lifting, results of Germany - at level Central European, France and Italy - almost twice more low, Finland, in view of the close neighbourhood with crisis Russia, marks time, and Greece «has left in a minus»).
Economists assume that the role of the locomotive of world economy, owing to "overheat" of China and its neighbours, comes back to the countries of the global West, truth, looking at statistics, in it to believe while hardly. The Whole world, more likely, gauging in catalepsy and expectation - where will blow a wind of changes. And, as always, it was divided into optimists and pessimists.
Optimists believe: time the economy of the USA has digested discount rate increase, means, it is possible to count on it, economy, the further growth at level of 2,7 %, stability will show also Europe (on the average 1,7 % of growth), stable will be also China. The low oil prices conduct to freezing of inflation, crediting activization, redistribution from manufacturers to consumers 2 trln dollars in universal scale (by estimates of the chairman of the British Institute of new economic thinking Anatole Kaletsky), and even 3 trillion (version Bank of America Merrill Lynch), to increase of purchasing capacity of economy. And as consumers are more resolute in expenditure, rather than than the state and corporation, their quickness will bring faster return. That is with three largest economy of the world all will be in an order, within last year's achievements, as well as with favourites-2015 - Vietnam and India.
Last year India has bypassed the old contender - China (on a photo - the prime minister of India Narendra Modi). (c) scmp.com
Besides, modest, but positive results will be brought by Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Japan, the Asian countries adhered to China. «New technologies, especially at their introduction by the transnational companies, allow to extract today industrial raw materials much more cheaply, than ever earlier. It, however, means that extraction reduction becomes even more necessary to raise the prices from present lowest levels. I consider that this process has begun recently. Some restoration of the prices for raw materials will lead to growth of corporate profits in sector and will recover economic activity in many countries strongly depending on export of natural resources» a little, - the publisher of the investment bulletin David Fuller predicts in "Sheets".
Thus, under forecasts, world gross national product will grow approximately on 2,5 % (that, in general, is average value for the last half a century), and the planetary economy even becomes a bit stronger, than last and years before last. On representations Citigroup, the most probable scenario (40 %) is that: delay to 2 % to the middle of 2016 with the subsequent restoration in the end of 2017 - the beginning of 2018 years. Probability skatyvanija world economy in heavy recession and financial crisis in Citi estimate no more than on 15 %. Eventually, if the oil prices and exchange indexes can give and this year, the markets tempered in former storms will react more easy.
In a word, - neither positive, nor negative - from 2016 it is not necessary to wait for any grandiose events, unless year through two-three. Present will be year «zalizyvanija wounds» both waiting. And lost precious time so all world economy necessary for reorganisation - pessimists specify.
Russia: an apocalypse today
To rebellious 2015 us still will seem safe, and 2016 on turbulence will be made even from bad memory of 2008, they "force". The matter is that - braking (because of the become stronger dollar) the American manufacture, delay in Europe, instability of Japan, and the main thing - China, which (what there 1,9 %!) on 15-20 % devalviruet the yuan, will powerfully support own export, but will knock down export of the others. And further - on the blazed way: full-scale «war of devaluations», sharp rise in price of dollar debts (the first China which volume of debts was during the last years inflated four times, to 28 trln dollars will suffer; also in risk group - Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Turkey, Ukraine), competition toughening for sale and - failure of the raw prices (oil barrel on 16 dollars - as to you such?) Flight of capitals from the developing, extracting countries, an exchange panic, a deflation, world crisis of liquidity, a collapse of investments and loans, a manufacture and bankruptcy stupor, unemployment for 2,5 million persons. Up to eurozone destruction. The technological revolution promised by futurologists will not extend also. The West has got up East economy, the West, the decline, her and will kill, and, as in the modern world the West and the East - «Siamese twins», itself upokoitsja.
Opposite (it seems, more fantastic), but the same gloomy vision: «slate revolution» chokes in the scanty prices for oil, there is an acute shortage of energy carriers, for its covering there are no even efforts of the OPEC, the raw prices sharply direct up, manufacture stagniruet, the protectionism centres flash. Up to WTO destruction.
Such or in some other way, sceptics frighten, there will come the ending of the system financial and economic "apocalypse" which has begun in 2008 a collapse of the market of real estate in the USA and proceeded debt crisis in Europe. Now the third, last wave which will cover «an era of consumption» and mankind overstocking by unnecessary resources and things - an era provided not with work, and bottomless loans. It will be a collapse of "historical scales», overturning destinies of billions earth dwellers, and hardly probable not the next months, exposers threaten.
Whose road will be chosen by our president - Alexander's wise man II or utopian Hugo Chavez? Novosti/Sergej Guneev RIA
«Europe is the failed experiment on construction of a socialism and scarce financing. China - a soap bubble if to speak about its stock markets, the markets of real estate and shadow bank system. Japan too on the verge of crash, and at the USA the biggest debt in the world, this country lived beyond the means more than 50 years. So we become witnesses of double deficiency in 200 trln dollars and shlopyvanija derivative securities on 1,5 kvadrilona dollars. It will lead to the crash of conditions largest in the history in world stock market during which time bond markets and real estate will fall off at least on 75-95 %. World trade also will sharply be reduced, and all planet will endure heavy need», - zhivopisuet the founder of Swiss fund Matterhorn Asset Management Egon a background of Grejts.« The world economy has taken to the open sea, and any saving boats on horizon », - the group economist of bank HSBC Stephen King echoes. Any because possibility of habitual tools - to underestimate interest rates and taxes to print money and to accumulate debts - are settled to the bottom.
To such statements it is possible to concern as attacks alarmizma (though «speaking true» accepted for alarmists and in a threshold of 2008). Probably, all not so is sad. But not for us. On a level with Brazil Russia in all - both optimistic, and pessimistic - reports is called as the basic world outsider. Our countries are similar: "the high-ranking" corruption spoilt with bureaucracy resource economy, a backward infrastructure at huge spaces, economic depression at level of 4 % year, absence of interest of the international investors, growing unemployment (according to the International labour organisation about Russia, 5,8 % - 4,4 million persons in 2015 and 6,2 % - 4,7 million persons following the results of 2016). More low only Venezuela: speak, it even has felt ashamed to publish the report for the last year...
It would not be desirable to finish trafaretnym "time will tell". In following reviews we will more in detail consider a condition and the future of economy of the USA, China and the European Union. Also we will compare them to the Russian.
By preparation materials of sites are used: aif.ru, expert.ru, forbes.ru, gazeta.ru, inopressa.ru, insider.pro, kommersant.ru, polit.ru, profile.ru, rabkor.ru, www.rbc.ru, vedomosti.ru
- 02-05-2020Four of the Americans ' Outlook: what will happen to the world economy and the US economy
- 21-02-2020The phantom menace: the non-obvious consequences of the depletion of nature for the economy
- 24-07-2019Look at the future of business: five trends postremoval era
- 23-06-2019Industrial revolution 4.0: how the Internet of things is changing business and how to stay afloat